Saudi Disad
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- A/T: Deterrence
- A/T: Saudi Prolif Inevitable
- A/T: Pakistan Gives the Bomb
Saudi Prolif DominoesSaudi Prolif Snowballs McInnis 2005 (Kathleen J. coordinator of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a research associate at CSIS. “Extended Deterrence: The U.S. Credibility Gap in the Middle East” The Washington Quarterly 28.3 (2005) 169-186. Muse.) The emergence of a nuclear Iran would undoubtedly send shockwaves through the region that could result in a nuclear domino effect. Therein lies the crux of the problem: If Saudi Arabia were to follow Iran’s proliferation route, that would again change the calculations of every other state in the region in a cumulative and potentially dangerous manner. Continuing with Egypt, and with other dominos such as Turkey and Syria poised to fall, the proliferation challenge in the Middle East is uniquely daunting. Perhaps most worrisome is that the United States is left, at present, with few good options in the region to thwart this dangerous trajectory. A/T: DeterrenceSaudi prolif won’t be peaceful Rep. Markey 2008 (Edward J, D-MA chairman of the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, “Why Is Bush Helping Saudi Arabia Build Nukes?,” Wall Street Journal/ http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121305642257659301.html) Saudi Arabia's interest in nuclear technology can only be explained by the dangerous politics of the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, a champion and kingpin of the Sunni Arab world, is deeply threatened by the rise of Shiite-ruled Iran. The two countries watch each other warily over the waters of the Persian Gulf, buying arms and waging war by proxy in Lebanon and Iraq. An Iranian nuclear weapon would radically alter the region's balance of power, and could prove to be the match that lights the tinderbox. By signing this agreement with the U.S., Saudi Arabia is warning Iran that two can play the nuclear game. In 2004, Vice President Dick Cheney said, "[Iran is] already sitting on an awful lot of oil and gas. No one can figure why they need nuclear, as well, to generate energy." Mr. Cheney got it right about Iran. But a potential Saudi nuclear program is just as suspicious. For a country with so much oil, gas and solar potential, importing expensive and dangerous nuclear power makes no economic sense. A/T: Saudi Prolif InevitableSaudis not proliferating now, but it’s possible in the future Front Page 2011 ("Saudis up the nuclear ante"http://frontpagemag.com/2011/07/22/saudis-up-the-nuclear-ante/, SRM) Skeptics of the Saudi nuclear threat, however, point to the fact that these nuclear agreements only allow for the transfer of knowledge regarding the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. Moreover, they also note that the Saudis are a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, although so is Iran, and that factoid hasn’t slowed down the Islamist state’s nuclear weapons pursuit. Not proliferating now because of US-relations concerns Guzansky July 1st, 2011 (Yoel Guzansky is a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. He joined INSS after serving at Israel's National Security Council; "TEHRAN TESTS SAUDIS' NERVE ON NUKES", LEXIS, SRM) In terms of nuclear development, these two Sunni nations located on either side of Shia Iran have overlapping interests: Pakistan has knowledge and skilled manpower, but lacks cash, while Saudi Arabia has vast cash reserves but lacks the relevant infrastructures and skilled manpower. The two might seek to balance Iran's power by increasing co-operation, despite the political risks primarily to their already strained relations with the US and the fact that doing so would contradict Saudi international commitments and its own public position favouring a nuclear-free Middle East. Saudis won't prolif now because of faith in US security umbrella, continued aggravation in the Arab spring pushes them past the tipping point Guzansky July 1st, 2011 (Yoel Guzansky is a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. He joined INSS after serving at Israel's National Security Council; "TEHRAN TESTS SAUDIS' NERVE ON NUKES", LEXIS, SRM) Signalling that it is prepared to go down this road may be an effective way of testing the US by pressuring the administration to demonstrate more strongly its commitment to defend the kingdom, especially after ``abandoning'' a longstanding regional ally like Mubarak. Saudi Arabia, at least for now, has no alternative but to rely on the American defence umbrella. However, it would be contrary to Saudi practice to put all its eggs in one basket. If in Riyadh's view its essential security interests are threatened, it may prefer to engage in a series of even contradictory steps to ensure its security. Given its enormous wealth and military weakness, it is a safe bet that Saudi Arabia will invest in security arrangements that help guarantee the continuity of the regime. A/T: Pakistan Gives the BombPakistan won't give Saudis the bomb – ties with Iran Front Page 2011 ("Saudis up the nuclear ante"http://frontpagemag.com/2011/07/22/saudis-up-the-nuclear-ante/, SRM) To that end, a recent report surfaced that Saudi Arabia — long suspected of contributing to Pakistan’s nuclear program — has already arranged for the use of two Pakistani nuclear bombs or guided missile warheads. However, given Pakistan’s recent dalliance with the Islamist Republic, the Pakistanis may prove to be less of a reliable option for the Saudis. Despite last minute appeals from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan’s president, Asif Ali Zardari , has twice in the last month made visits to Tehran to meet with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. In both instances, Zardari has praised Iran as both a “natural ally” and “important friend” of Pakistan in the region. Download 196.65 Kb. Share with your friends:
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