Saudi Disad
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Link - BahrainSaudis fear a democratic Bahrain Business Insider 2011 ("What's Really Happening In Bahrain And Why It Matters" LEXIS, SRM) Iran is the chief Shia power in the Middle East, with more that 90% of its population claiming adherence to the religion. The country is just across the Persian Gulf from Bahrain, and Iran's leaders ruled Bahrain for a significant part of that country's history. But if you look at a broader picture of the region, you'll note that it's really a faceoff between two powers: Saudi Arabia and Iran. Iran has rejected the presence of Saudi Arabian troops in Bahrain. They're calling for democratic reforms in the country, in line with what protesters are asking for. But for Saudi Arabia, this would be a disaster. If Bahrain was to become more democratic, it would surely become Shia led (remember, majority Shia), and infect its sphere of influence. Success in Bahrain could also spur on protesters in Saudi Arabia, who have demanded democratic reforms in the Kingdom. Aid to Bahrainian revolution destroys US-Saudi relations American Spectator 2011 ("Achieving the Impossible"; EBSCO, SRM) U.S.-Saudi relations, meanwhile, have deteriorated to their lowest point in decades because of Riyadh's belief that the Obama administration is inadvertently strengthening Tehran at its expense. When sectarian protests first flared in Bahrain in February, the White House called for formal negotiations between the country's Saudi-backed royal family and members of its Shiite majority. Saudi officials angrily told their American counterparts that the protesters were Iranian proxies and that Riyadh would never accept a Shiite-dominated government in Bahrain, according to U.S. officials. Saudi Arabia then dispatched armored vehicles to help the ruling Khalifa family put down the protests, ignoring Washington's calls for restraint. "The Saudis are as angry at us now as they've been at any point since the shah fell in 1979," said Gregory Gause, a Mideast expert at the University of Vermont. "Victory for the protesters [in Bahrain] would be seen as a victory for Iran. And they know that everyone in the Middle East would read it as a defeat for Saudi Arabia." Saudi's are sending a clear message not to intervene in Bahrain Institutional Investor 2011 ("Have Gulf Leaders Recognized The Need For Change?" LEXIS, SRM) The ruling powers have responded to the pressures with iron fists and open checkbooks. At Riyadh's prompting, the Gulf Cooperation Council, a regional alliance of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, sent troops to Bahrain to suppress protests against the regime of King Hamad bin-Isa al-Khalifa. The move recalled the approach of the former Soviet Union, says Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution's Saban Center for Middle East Policy, who chaired President Barack Obama's strategic review of U.S. policy toward Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2009. By intervening, Riedel contends, Saudi Arabia "invoked a 21st-century version of the old Soviet Brezhnev doctrine, ruling out revolution in the kingdom's sphere of influence just like the Russians tried to outlaw freedom in Eastern Europe." More evidence LA Times, 2011 (June 19, "U.S., Saudis in Mideast tug of war; Quest for greater influence intensifies as uprisings in the region further drive a wedge between the longtime allies." LEXIS, SRM) The tension has been most visible in Bahrain, where Riyadh ignored U.S. warnings and sent more than 1,000 troops in mid-March to suppress Shiite-dominated demonstrations. Saudi officials view the protests as an effort by Iran to gain a foothold on their border, and they believe Washington has failed to see the threat. [CONTINUES] Steven A. Cook, a Mideast specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations, said Riyadh's forceful response in Bahrain "demonstrates the Saudis have absolutely no faith in our position on the region, and are going to look after their own interests in a way they know how." Bahrain Link UQUS is being ambiguous towards Bahrain now IPS, 2011 ("WASHINGTON'S PATCHWORK POLICY ON DEMOCRACY" LEXIS, SRM) Despite this rhetoric, some analysts see Obama's approach to the uprisings in the region not as conforming to a broad strategic vision, but as hinging on concessions to regional partners' "red lines" for reforms - as in Bahrain, where U.S. ally Saudi Arabia fears that a more politically inclusive regime will tempt Iran to expand its sphere of influence. In the case of Bahrain, the Obama administration has taken a decidedly different approach than in Libya or even Egypt. Despite the Bahraini government's crackdown on civilians and popular calls for political reform, including representative governance, the U.S. has acceded to the Khalifa regime's minimal concessions and taken an ambiguous position on the presence of Saudi troops in the country, which critics say has only exacerbated sectarian tensions. Link UQ - Bahrain under the influence of Saudis now The Times London, 2011 ("Bahrain must not be allowed to crush its way back to respectability", LEXIS, SRM) Bahrain is the home of the American Fifth Fleet, a vital strategic interest in the region. The country falls heavily under the sphere of influence of its much larger neighbour Saudi Arabia, with Saudi troops having crossed the King Fahd Causeway bridge in mind-March to help quell protests. While Bahrain's ruling family is Sunni, the majority are Shia, leading Bahraini and Saudi elites alike to fear the spreading influence of Shia Iran. Saudi influence in Bahrain strong now Energy Compass, 2011 ("Bahrain: Foreign Intervention" LEXIS, SRM) Riyadh used a mixture of threats, shame and handouts to deflate the proposed "Day of Rage" in Saudi Arabia last Friday. Emboldened by that flop, Saudi Arabia is pushing a more assertive solution to the Bahrain problem. Following Monday's troop deployment, Bahrain declared a three-month state of emergency on Tuesday, used local forces to drive protesters out of Pearl roundabout early Wednesday and then banned public demonstrations. Onlookers insist that Riyadh is not directly calling the shots; rather, Bahrain has decided it needs a more authoritarian solution -- backed by the Saudis -- after its US-supported policy of dialogue faltered. By the end of the week, the Peninsula Shield troops had not participated in the crackdown and were just protecting infrastructure. Last week, the GCC also pledged $20 billion in aid to Bahrain and Oman, another country wracked by protests ( EC Mar.4,p4 ). Download 196.65 Kb. Share with your friends:
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