Space Weaponization – 4 Week


A2: China’s 2007 ASAT test



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A2: China’s 2007 ASAT test


Even if China has preliminary ASAT capabilities, it’s not fully functional yet

Weston 09 US Air Force Major (Scott A., “ Examining Space Warfare Scenarios, Risks, and US Policy Implications”, 3/1/09, http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj09/spr09/weston.html#weston)
Other than Russia, only China can field substantial counterspace forces. China’s successful test of a direct-ascent ASAT weapon in 2007 demonstrated its ability to compete in the space battlefield.28 But China’s fielded forces remain unknown. Since this ASAT test was Beijing’s first success, the Chinese have probably not yet fielded or integrated the system into battle planning. Given their great interest in the development of ASAT weapons, however, they are presumably in the process of fielding it, which would make the system at least partially operational in any near-term conflict.29 Recent reports have also suggested that China has many components of a ground-based ASAT laser system, but its operational status remains unknown.30 We also believe that China possesses jamming technology similar to Russia’s, and, like Russia, it boasts space launch, ballistic missiles, and nuclear weapons.

Weaponization Now – China



China is building up its space capabilities

Maginnis 11 [Bob, internationally known security and foreign affairs analyst for CNN and Fox News, "China Masking Huge Military Buildup," 5-5, http://www.bibleprophecyblog.com/2011/04/china-masking-huge-military-buildup.html]
Last week China’s Communist regime published the every-second-year edition of its defense white paper, “China’s National Defense in 2010,” which claims to promote transparency in its defense planning and deepen international trust, and asserts that its security policy is defensive in nature. But the paper’s messages are not supported by the facts. Consider five of the many misleading messages imbedded in the 30-page defense white paper. First, “China attaches great importance to military transparency,” the paper claims. The Pentagon takes issue with that view in a report, stating, “The limited transparency in China’s military and security affairs enhances uncertainty and increases the potential for misunderstanding and miscalculation.” China fails the transparency test by understating its defense spending. The Pentagon’s 2010 report on China’s military estimates Beijing’s total military-related spending for 2009 was more than $150 billion, but the white paper claims it spent about half that amount, $75.56 billion (495.11 billion RMB). The difference, according to the Pentagon, is due to the fact that China’s defense budget “does not include major categories of expenditure,” but the report fails to identify those categories. China’s defense spending increased annually for more than two decades, but the white paper states, “The growth rate of defense expenditure has decreased.” That statement is refuted by China’s official 2011 defense budget, which is $92 billion, up 12.7% from 2010, which grew from 7.5% during the previous year. The Pentagon report also states China isn’t transparent regarding its growing force-projection capabilities. For example, the so-called transparent white paper does not mention Beijing’s plan to deploy an aircraft carrier known to be under construction. A question about the carrier was posed at the press conference announcing the white paper, but was never answered. Second, “The Chinese government has advocated from the outset the peaceful use of outer space, and opposes any weaponization of outer space,” according to the white paper. China’s anti-space weaponization view hasn’t stopped it from developing its own space weapon, however. The white paper makes no mention of China’s 2007 successful direct-ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons test, which destroyed its own satellite in space. “The test raised questions about China’s capability and intention to attack U.S. satellites,” according to a Congressional Research Service (CRS) report. The Pentagon’s report states, "China continues to develop and refine this [ASAT] system, which is one component of a multidimensional program to limit or prevent the use of space-based assets by potential adversaries during times of crisis or conflict.” The report also indicates China is developing kinetic and directed-energy weapons for ASAT missions. Gen. Xu Qiliang, commander of China’s air force, appears to confirm the Pentagon’s analysis. He said in 2009 that military competition extending to space is “inevitable” and emphasized the transformation of China’s air force into one that “integrates air and space” with both “offensive [read ASAT] and defensive” capabilities, according to the Pentagon’s report.
China weaponizing now – even seemly benign ventures are controlled by the PLA

Wall 11 [Mike, SPACE.com senior writer, "Washington Worries China Will Challenge U.S. Dominance in Space," 5-12, http://www.space.com/11646-china-space-policy-united-states.html]
In 2007, China destroyed one of its own satellites on orbit during an anti-satellite test, showcasing an ability that makes the United States and other nations nervous. Since then, the country has conducted other tests advancing its military space capabilities, including a 2010 missile-interception demonstration. Beijing is also ramping up its human spaceflight program. In 2003, China became the third nation to launch a person into space, and it has flown several manned missions since. The country also hopes to build a large space station between 2015 and 2022, according to hearing panelist Alanna Krolikowski, a visiting scholar at George Washington University's Space Policy Institute. And, beyond that, China appears to be gearing up for a manned lunar landing. The nation's human spaceflight program aims to complete an in-depth concept study on the subject by about 2020, Krolikowski said at the hearing. [Infographic: How China's First Space Station Will Work] These developments have some politicians and policy experts worried. They think China may be positioning itself to challenge outright the United States' dominance in space, which currently gives America a huge advantage on the battlefield. “What concerns me most about the Chinese space program is that, unlike the U.S., it is being led by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)," Congressman Frank Wolf (R-VA) testified at the hearing. "There is no reason to believe that the PLA’s space program will be any more benign than the PLA’s recent military posture."
China is working on space weapons now

Chase 11 [Michael S., “Defense and Deterrence in China’s Military Space Strategy,” China Brief, Vol 11, Issue 5, 3-25,http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37699&tx_ttnews[backPid]=25&cHash=e3f0fcd233f563e2364ad7bc49425244]
China’s theory of space deterrence may be a work in progress, but Beijing is already developing an impressive array of counter-space systems. Indeed, the capabilities that China is working on go beyond the direct ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon, successfully tested in January 2007. The test demonstrated its capability to destroy satellites in low-earth orbit and was followed by a missile intercept test in January 2010. According to the 2010 Department of Defense (DoD) report on Chinese military developments, "China is developing a multi- dimensional program to improve its capabilities to limit or prevent the use of space-based assets by potential adversaries during times of crisis or conflict" [1]. In addition to the direct ascent ASAT, China’s capabilities include foreign and domestically developed jamming capabilities, and the inherent ASAT capabilities of its nuclear forces. In addition, "China is developing other technologies and concepts for kinetic and directed-energy (e.g. lasers, high-powered microwave, and particle beam) weapons for ASAT missions" [2]. According to Chinese analysts, along with the increasing its importance for military and commercial reasons, space is becoming an important domain for the defense of national security and national interests [3]. Background Chinese strategists regard space as a crucial battlefield in future wars. Chinese military publications characterize space as the high ground that both sides will strive to control in informatized local wars because of its influence on information superiority and its importance in seizing the initiative in a conflict [4]. Chinese analysts write that space systems serve as key enablers by providing support in areas such as intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), early warning, communications, navigation and positioning, targeting for precision weapons, surveying and mapping, and meteorological support. Chinese analysts also portray space systems as force multipliers that support joint operations and enhance the effectiveness of ground, air, and naval forces. In keeping with this emphasis on the importance of space systems in contemporary military operations, China is making major strides in improving its own space capabilities [5]. According to the 2010 DoD report, "China is expanding its space-based intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, navigation, and communications satellite constellations" [6]. As China places more satellites into orbit, the PLA’s reliance on space systems is growing. China’s military is becoming more dependent on space capabilities for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, navigation and positioning, as well as communications. Chinese military publications suggest that China still sees itself as far less dependent on space than the United States, but they also recognize that with this increasing reliance on space comes greater vulnerability. Many Chinese analysts believe that China’s space systems face a variety of potential threats. Consequently, they argue that the PLA needs to be able to protect its space assets through defensive measures or deterrence.
China is militarizing now, multiple reasons

Quigley 09 Major in the USAF (Erik N., “GEO-POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS TO CHINA‘S RISE IN SPACE POWER”, April, Air Command and Staff College, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf&AD=ADA539644)
China‘s recent rise in space capability can be attributable to three areas: one, by its recent booming economy, second, by its recent technological revolution, and third, by its cultural ideology or tradition. Economically, China has the 4th highest GDP in the world with $3.3 trillion dollars, only slightly behind Germany and Japan compared to the US. 4 Technologically, ever since the late 1990s, the Chinese continue to focus on a fundamental restructuring of its defense industry evidenced by its shifting control of defense enterprises from the military to the civilian government. 5 Culturally, China will likely choose to remain consistent with its People‘s War‘ strategy to only engage in military action when they know they can succeed. China is therefore building up its space military capability to support this cultural ideology.



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