Tampa Prep 2009-2010 Impact Defense File
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- AT: China (Rouge States Impact)
- Darfur crisis inevitable – China can’t influence Sudan
Ext #2 – Preaceful RiseChina is rising peacefully - a confrontational policy by the US would only lead to Chinese economic slowdown Zbigniew Brzezinski- national security affairs advisor to the Carter administration - 2/05 (“Make Money, Not War,” Foreign Policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=2740) Today in East Asia, China is rising—peacefully so far. For understandable reasons, China harbors resentment and even humiliation about some chapters of its history. Nationalism is an important force, and there are serious grievances regarding external issues, notably Taiwan. But conflict is not inevitable or even likely. China’s leadership is not inclined to challenge the United States militarily, and its focus remains on economic development and winning acceptance as a great power. China is preoccupied, and almost fascinated, with the trajectory of its own ascent. When I met with the top leadership not long ago, what struck me was the frequency with which I was asked for predictions about the next 15 or 20 years. Not long ago, the Chinese Politburo invited two distinguished, Western-trained professors to a special meeting. Their task was to analyze nine major powers since the 15th century to see why they rose and fell. It’s an interesting exercise for the top leadership of a massive and complex country. This focus on the experience of past great powers could lead to the conclusion that the iron laws of political theory and history point to some inevitable collision or conflict. But there are other political realities. In the next five years, China will host several events that will restrain the conduct of its foreign policy. The 2008 Olympic Games is the most important, of course. The scale of the economic and psychological investment in the Beijing games is staggering. My expectation is that they will be magnificently organized. And make no mistake, China intends to win at the Olympics. A second date is 2010, when China will hold the World Expo in Shanghai. Successfully organizing these international gatherings is important to China and suggests that a cautious foreign policy will prevail. More broadly, China is determined to sustain its economic growth. A confrontational foreign policy could disrupt that growth, harm hundreds of millions of Chinese, and threaten the Communist Party’s hold on power. China’s leadership appears rational, calculating, and conscious not only of China’s rise but also of its continued weakness. China is committed to a peaceful rise Bijian 05 – Chair of the China Reform Forum (Zheng Bijian, Summary of the article: “China’s Peaceful Rise to Great Power Status.” Foreign Affairs, October/September 2005. Pg.1 , http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/61015/zheng-bijian/chinas-peaceful-rise-to-great-power-status) Despite widespread fears about China's growing economic clout and political stature, Beijing remains committed to a "peaceful rise": bringing its people out of poverty by embracing economic globalization and improving relations with the rest of the world. As it emerges as a great power, China knows that its continued development depends on world peace -- a peace that its development will in turn reinforce. AT: China (Rouge States Impact)No link – China not obstructing international efforts anymoreInternational Crisis Group, Belgium Based Think Tank, June 2008 [China's Thirst for Oil," http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5478&l=1] While continuing to shield these countries from criti- cism, China is shifting from outright obstructionism to a more nuanced strategy of balancing its short-term resource needs with its desire to be seen as a respon- sible power. It is playing a more constructive role in multilateral processes and supporting some forms of international intervention in ways that were unimag- inable just a few years ago.165 In particular, its coop- eration is becoming an increasingly central factor in diplomatic efforts to find solutions to the crises in North Korea, Iran, Sudan and Myanmar/Burma.166 And it now contributes more troops to UN peacekeep- ing missions than any other P-5 Security Council member.167 While this shifting approach can be attributed in part to a desire to project a good international image in the lead-up to the 2008 Olympics, it also reflects the need to protect more basic national interests. Beijing is learning the perils of entrusting its energy security to unpopular and, in many cases, fragile regimes.168 While non-interference may have been useful to it in signing initial energy deals, it is less helpful in secur- ing these interests over the long term in the face of mounting risks to its investments, citizens and secu- rity. Political crisis and conflict lead to defaults on loans and investments and threaten equity oil. Escala- tion of the Darfur conflict, for example, jeopardises China’s investments in Sudan, as the conflict’s spread threatens its nascent investments in Chad. Direct threats to Chinese citizens are growing, as seen in at- tacks and kidnappings in Ethiopia and the Niger Delta,169 as well as Sudan, and in anti-Chinese demon- strations in Zambia.170 These human and political costs are causing some in the leadership to question the merits of the “go out” strategy.171
[China's Thirst for Oil," http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5478&l=1] China cannot single-handedly solve the Darfur cri- sis.243 Nor is the Sudanese government easy to influ- ence. It has a wide network of supporters, including a number of Arab countries, and has benefited from powerful voices in the AU supporting the need for its consent to any peacekeeping operation. Nevertheless China is in a position to use more diplomatic, eco- nomic and military leverage than it currently employs and to work more closely with the rest of the interna- tional community on coordinating a united stance. It has been willing to tighten the screws on clients else- where: for example, it was quick to denounce Py- ongyang and agree to Security Council sanctions fol- lowing North Korea’s October 2006 nuclear test – a position that was essential to the subsequent denu- clearisation agreement. Directory: files -> documents documents -> North Mankato Taylor Library documents -> In the Red and Brown Water documents -> - documents -> I. Disaster Summary Sheet II. Tropical Cyclones documents -> Cbp and Trade Automated Interface Requirements Appendix: pga december 22, 2015 documents -> Ace abi catair customs and Trade Automated Interface Requirements documents -> Ace abi catair customs and Trade Automated Interface Requirements documents -> Mobile audio/video recording systems documents -> Cartographic Concepts for Realizing a Location Based umts service documents -> 1/ Background Statistics Human development index rank Download 2.71 Mb. Share with your friends:
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