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- Squo solves China—Taiwan relations—new talks
China-TaiwanNo China-Taiwan war—China knows it won’t win, and global backlashKeck 13 [Zachary, Managing Editor of The Diplomat where he authored The Pacific Realist blog, “Why China Won't Attack Taiwan”, The Diplomat, Dec 24 2013, http://thediplomat.com/2013/12/why-china-wont-attack-taiwan/] AW Although the trend lines are undoubtedly working in China’s favor, it is ultimately extremely unlikely that China will try to seize Taiwan by force. Furthermore, should it try to do this, it is unlikely to succeed. Even assuming China’s military capabilities are great enough to prevent the U.S. from intervening, there are two forces that would likely be sufficient to deter China from invading Taiwan. The first and least important is the dramatic impact this would have on how countries in the region and around the world would view such a move. Globally, China seizing Taiwan would result in it being permanently viewed as a malicious nation. Regionally, China’s invasion of Taiwan would diminish any lingering debate over how Beijing will use its growing power. Every regional power would see its own fate in Taiwan. Although Beijing would try to reassure countries by claiming that Taiwan was part of China already, and thus the operation was a domestic stability one, this narrative would be convincing to none of China’s neighbors. Consequently, Beijing would face an environment in which each state was dedicated to cooperating with others to balance against Chinese power. But the more important deterrent for China would be the uncertainty of success. To be sure, China’s military capabilities are growing to the point where it will soon be assured of its ability to quickly defeat Taiwan’s military forces. A little longer down the road it will also likely be confident that it can prevent the U.S. from intervening in the conflict. However, as recent U.S. military conflicts have adequately demonstrated, being able to defeat another nation’s armed forces and being able to pacify the country are two different things altogether. It is in this latter aim that China’s strategy is likely to falter. Taiwanese are adamantly opposed to being incorporated into a non-Democratic China. These feelings would only harden in the aftermath of the invasion. Thus, even if it quickly defeated Taiwan’s formal military forces, the PLA would continue to have to contend with the remnants of resistance for years to come. Such a scenario would be deeply unsettling for leaders in Beijing as this defiance would likely inspire similar resistance among various groups on the mainland, starting first and foremost with ethnic minorities in the western China. Should the PLA resort to harsh oppression to squash resistance in Taiwan, this would deeply unsettle even Han Chinese on the mainland. In fact, the clear parallels with how Imperial Japan sought to pacify Taiwan and China would be lost on no one in China and elsewhere. The entire situation would be a nightmare for Chinese leaders. Consequently, they are nearly certain to avoid provoking it by invading Taiwan. The only real scenario in which they would invade Taiwan is if the island nation formally declared independence. But if Taiwanese leaders have avoided doing so to date, they are unlikely to think the idea is very wise as China goes stronger. Thus, the status-quo in the Taiwanese strait is unlikely to be changed by military force. Instead, Beijing is likely to continue drawing Taiwan closer economically, and seeking to disrupt the U.S.-Taiwanese bilateral relationship. The hope would be that leaders in Taipei will ultimately conclude that they cannot resist being absorbed into China, something China itself can facilitate this by offering favorable terms. Squo solves China—Taiwan relations—new talksSevastopulo 14 [Demetri, US Political Correspondent at Financial Times, “China and Taiwan relations warm”, Financial Times, Feb 12 2014, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e260d9ac-930e-11e3-8ea7-00144feab7de.html#axzz3fi1tfUtp] AW China and Taiwan have held their highest-level talks since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949 when the Republic of China government fled to the island after losing to Mao Zedong’s communists. Wang Yu-chi, head of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, and his mainland Chinese counterpart, Zhang Zhijun, on Tuesday met in the eastern Chinese city of Nanjing, in the latest sign of warming relations between the sides. “Today we can sit here . . . and have official meetings to discuss issues of mutual interest to people on both sides,” said Mr Wang on the first day of a four-day visit. “Cross-Strait relations have entered a new chapter. It’s a memorable day.” While Beijing and Taipei have maintained informal contacts, the meeting in Nanjing – the Chinese capital when the nationalist Kuomintang government was in power – marked the first formal talks on cross-Strait relations since Chiang Kai-shek moved his government to Taiwan six decades ago. The milestone comes four months after Chinese President Xi Jinping said that both sides could not continue their “political disagreements” forever. “The two sides must reach a final resolution, step by step, and these issues cannot be passed on from generation to generation,” Mr Xi said in October, according to Xinhua news agency. The US said it welcomed the moves China and Taiwan had taken to reduce tensions and improve ties. “We encourage authorities in Beijing and Taipei to continue their constructive dialogue, which has led to significant improvements in the cross-strait relationship, so we certainly welcome the resumption,” said Jen Psaki, a state department spokeswoman. China has threatened to use force against Taiwan, which it regards as a renegade province, if it declares independence. But relations have improved dramatically since Ma Ying-jeou was elected Taiwanese president in 2008. The thaw has paved the way for stronger economic ties which have boosted trade and tourism. Directory: file -> view view -> Western Europe after wwii view -> Author study: paul fleischman view -> Qpa1 7ela study Guide view -> Arctic Oil/Gas Neg view -> November 1970 Approximately 150,000-500,000 deaths Bhola Cyclone Bangladesh view -> Grade Level: 6 Unit of Study: Caribbean glce view -> Citation: Duffield, Katy view -> Table of Contents Lesson # view -> Chinese Wind Energy Disad Download 2.62 Mb. Share with your friends:
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