The Rate Debate Slowing
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AT: Nighttime WarmingNighttime warming has negligent effects on photosynthesis Albert et al. (K. R. ALBERT1, H. RO-POULSEN2, T. N. MIKKELSEN1, A. MICHELSEN2, L. VAN DER LINDEN1 & C. BEIER, 1Biosystems Division, Risø DTU, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde and 2Terrestrial Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Copenhagen, Øster Farigmagsgade 2D, 1353 Copenhagen K, Denmark) 2011 (K.R., “Effects of elevated CO2, warming and drought episodes on plant carbon uptake in a temperate heath ecosystem are controlled by soil water status ,” Plant, Cell and Environment (2011) 34, 1207–1222 Pages 11-12) //CL The night-time warming generally had limited effects on the leaf surface temperature, but did under some conditions increase vegetation surface temperature for up to 3–5 h after sunrise, although normally much less (Mikkelsen et al. 2008). This could potentially induce short-term stimulation of photosynthesis via more optimal growth temperatures (Sage & Kubien 2007). However, these direct effects were not detected in this study, for various reasons. Too few measurements were conducted during the early daytime hours where the night-time warming effects persisted. Further, such effects would most likely not influence the overall treatment effects reported here as the sampling pro- cedure with a large number of plots and the several hours of measuring time for a complete campaign would have con- strained this variation to the experimental blocks, causing it not to be detected as a treatment effect in the anova. Instead, the potential effect of the night-time warming on photosynthesis must be indirect. Warming increased the amount of GDDs (Mikkelsen et al. 2008), and increased photosynthesis and photosynthetic capacity in the early season (Pn in May, and Pmax in May and June). This suggests that the warming treatment may have caused an earlier onset of plant growth or faster development of the photo- synthetic machinery in the spring in accordance with other studies demonstrating earlier growth season start-up in response to warming (Harte & Shaw 1995; Menzel & Fabian 1999; Wan et al. 2005; Menzel et al. 2006). Later in the season, the maturation of photosynthetic capacity in the non-warmed treatments caught up and warming effects did not translate into significant effects on photosynthesis, except for marginal reductions of net photosynthesis in warmed plots in August. Furthermore, the night-time warming reduced SWC in most months, and reduced PWP in July and September, but only influenced net photosyn- thesis negatively in the dry midsummer (August). The reduced SWC indicates increased plant water consumption per ground area or increased soil evaporation in response to night-time warming, but apart from the midsummer, this reduction was not strong enough to induce a general reduc- tion in photosynthesis. Our finding of a small response of photosynthesis to warming in this relatively dry site may be further supported by previous findings from passive night- time warming studies across a European gradient indicating that photosynthetic plant carbon uptake may be more responsive on wet sites compared to dry sites (Llorens et al. 2004; Peñuelas et al. 2007). Thus, the primary effect of night-time warming on photosynthesis in our study was associated with earlier seasonal onset and maturation of the photosynthetic capacity. AT: MigrationsClimate change does not create refugees - empirically proven Asian Correspondent April 11, 2011 What happened to the climate refugees? http://asiancorrespondent.com/52189/what-happened-to-the-climate-refugees/ In 2005, the United Nations Environment Programme predicted that climate change would create 50 million climate refugees by 2010. These people, it was said, would flee a range of disasters including sea level rise, increases in the numbers and severity of hurricanes, and disruption to food production. The UNEP even provided a handy map. The map shows us the places most at risk including the very sensitive low lying islands of the Pacific and Caribbean. It so happens that just a few of these islands and other places most at risk have since had censuses, so it should be possible for us now to get some idea of the devastating impact climate change is having on their populations. Let’s have a look at the evidence: Bahamas: Nassau, The Bahamas – The 2010 national statistics recorded that the population growth increased to 353,658 persons in The Bahamas. The population change figure increased by 50,047 persons during the last 10 years. St Lucia: The island-nation of Saint Lucia recorded an overall household population increase of 5 percent from May 2001 to May 2010 based on estimates derived from a complete enumeration of the population of Saint Lucia during the conduct of the recently completed 2010 Population and Housing Census. Seychelles: Population 2002, 81755 Population 2010, 88311 Solomon Islands: The latest Solomon Islands population has surpassed half a million – that’s according to the latest census results. It’s been a decade since the last census report, and in that time the population has leaped 100-thousand. Meanwhile, far from being places where people are fleeing, no fewer than the top six of the very fastest growing cities in China, Shenzzen, Dongguan, Foshan, Zhuhai, Puning and Jinjiang, are absolutely smack bang within the shaded areas identified as being likely sources of climate refugees. Similarly, many of the fastest growing cities in the United States also appear within or close to the areas identified by the UNEP as at risk of having climate refugees. More censuses are due to come in this year, and we await the results for Bangladesh and the Maldives - said to be places most at risk - with interest. However, a very cursory look at the first available evidence seems to show that the places identified by the UNEP as most at risk of having climate refugees are not only not losing people, they are actually among the fastest growing regions in the world. (Footnote: As requested, credit goes to the cartographer of the UNEP map, Emmanuelle Bournay.) Climate change does not create refugees or conflict - best study Sherwood, Keith, and Craig Idso et al 2010 (Craig, PhD in geography @Arizona State, M.S. in Agronomy from U Nebraska) War and Peace ... and Climate Change http://www.co2science.org/articles/V13/N13/EDIT.php In an insightful new study recently published in Climatic Change, Richard Tol and Sebastian Wagner write that in "gloomier scenarios of climate change, violent conflict plays a key part," noting that in such visions of the future "war would break out over declining water resources, and millions of refugees would cause mayhem." In this regard, the two researchers state that "the Nobel Peace Prize of 2007 was partly awarded to the IPCC and Al Gore for their contribution to slowing climate change and thus preventing war." However, they say that "scenarios of climate-change-induced violence can be painted with abandon," citing the example of Schwartz and Randall (2003), because, as they continue, "there is "little research to either support or refute such claims." Consequently, and partly to fill this gaping research void, Tol and Wagner proceeded to go where but few had gone before, following in the footsteps of Zhang et al. (2005, 2006), who broke new ground in this area when they (1) constructed a dataset of climate and violent conflict in China for the last millennium, and (2) found that the Chinese were "more inclined to fight each other when it was cold," which propensity for violence they attributed to the reduced agricultural productivity that typically prevailed during cooler times. Hence, the two researchers essentially proceeded to do for Europe what Zhang et al. had done for China. The results of Tol and Wagner's analyses provide additional evidence that, as they describe it, "periods with lower temperatures in the pre-industrial era are accompanied by violent conflicts." However, they determined that "this effect is much weaker in the modern world than it was in pre-industrial times," which implies, in their words, "that future global warming is not likely to lead to (civil) war between (within) European countries." Therefore, they conclude that "should anyone ever seriously have believed that, this paper does put that idea to rest." In light of this refutation of the rational for the awarding of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, we are inclined to say to its most visible recipient -- in the spirit of the sentiment expressed by President Ronald Reagan on 12 June 1987 at the base of the Brandenburg Gate, near the Berlin wall -- Mr. Gore, give back that prize!
Sherwood, Keith, and Craig Idso et al 2k (Craig, PhD in geography @Arizona State, M.S. in Agronomy from U Nebraska) Temperature Trends -- Asia – Summary http://www.co2science.org/subject/a/summaries/asiantemptrends.php The winter of 2000/2001 was bitterly cold in many parts of Asia; in fact, many cold-temperature records were set. According to NBC News correspondent Dana Lewis, extreme cold blasted Russia into the coldest winter in a century (see "The Planet is Warming Up!"). From Siberia to the Far East, bone-chilling temperatures some 30 degrees below normal made it "a battle just to survive." Similar information was obtained from a report by Red Cross staff writer Stephanie Kriner, who wrote about some other cold-induced disasters. She reported, for example, that in the first week of January 2001, many people died "as a result of a bitter cold front sweeping across northern India," which brought "the coldest temperatures to hit the region in several years." Kriner noted that the same cold front also swept into Pakistan, threatening the lives of hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees. In China, she says that "the worst winter weather conditions in decades" left many people dead, and that Barbara Wetsig of the American Red Cross feared that thousands of other people were "at risk of frostbite, hypothermia and starvation," especially "the poor, homeless, elderly and children." In fact, Kriner says that the Inner Mongolian Branch of the Russian Red Cross estimated that up to 1.35 million people were affected. She also reports that "the worst snowstorm in 50 years" stranded "tens of thousands of herders and their livestock" in Inner Mongolia, and that blizzards paralyzed South Korea in what weather forecasters there described as "the worst snowstorm in 20 years," adding that the Central Asian state of Kazakhstan was subjected to "its coldest winter weather in 40 years." At a time when we’re told the world is hotter than it’s ever been in the past thousand years, this information is not exactly what one would expect to hear, unless, of course, this claim is wrong. And indeed it may be; for a number of recent papers provide evidence that Asian temperatures during the past century and beyond were at times much warmer than they are presently. Furthermore, some of them suggest that temperature trends of the past few decades have been negative, rather than positive. Climate change is not the root cause of refugees, and they don’t solve for the institutions that actually cause displacement Betsy Hartmann professor of development studies and director of the Population and Development Program , B.A. from Yale University, Ph.D. from the London School of Economics 23 FEB 2010 Rethinking climate refugees and climate conflict: Rhetoric, reality and the politics of policy discourse http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jid.1676/abstract The narrative ignores basic elements of Sudanese political economy that helped create and sustain the conflict. These include gross inequalities in wealth and power between the elite in the capital and the rural population; government agricultural policies that favour large mechanised farms and irrigation schemes over rain-fed, small farmer agriculture, causing both political grievances and land degradation; forced migration, such as the 1990s removal of Nuba farmers from their lands into so-called ‘peace villages’ where they became a source of captive labour for mechanised farms; and what Alex de Waal calls ‘militarised tribalism’ (de Waal, 2007). In particular, the nationalisation of land in 1970, by which customary laws were set aside and people could obtain access only through lease agreements with the government, set the stage for widespread land-grabbing by elites and the marginalisation of pastoralists. As one scholar of the region notes, ‘. . .not all resource conflicts are based on a situation of resource scarcity; rather, they are political in nature and have to do with the workings of the Sudanese state’ (Manger, 2005, p. 135). The discovery but rather to heighten it, if the government controls the water for its own interests (Polgreen, 2007). The construction of Darfur as a climate conflict should serve as canary in the coal mine that something is amiss when environmental determinism overrides serious analysis of power relations. This is not to deny that environmental changes due to global warming could in some instances exacerbate already existing economic and political divisions. However, whether or not violent conflict and mass migrations result depends on so many other factors that it is far too simplistic to see climate change as a major cause or trigger. Moreover, such threat scenarios ignore the way many poorly resourced communities manage their affairs without recourse to violence. Brown et al. (2007) cite the case of the semi-arid regions of Northern Nigeria where conflicts between pastoralists and agricultural communities occur over water and fodder, but seldom spread because of the existence of traditional conflict resolution institutions. They argue that helping these communities adapt to climate change should involve strengthening such institutions. Directory: files files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2 files -> Integer programming and game theory files -> 4 Integer Programming files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. 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