The Rate Debate Slowing
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Models FlawedClimate models empirically unreliable Sherwood, Keith, and Craig Idso et al 2012 (Craig, PhD in geography @Arizona State, M.S. in Agronomy from U Nebraska) Global Warming Fosters High-Latitude Cooling??? http://co2science.org/articles/V15/N27/EDIT.php In a study recently published in Environmental Research Letters, Cohen et al. (2012) note that over the last four decades Arctic temperatures have warmed at nearly double the global rate, citing Solomon et al. (2007) and Screen and Simmonds (2010); and they state that "coupled climate models attribute much of this warming to rapid increases in greenhouse gases and project the strongest warming across the extratropical Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter due to 'winter (or Arctic) amplification'," citing Holland and Bitz (2003), Hansen and Nazarenko (2004), Alexeev et al. (2005) and Langen and Alexeev (2007). However, they say that "recent trends in observed Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperatures diverge from these projections," noting that "while the planet has steadily warmed, Northern Hemisphere winters have recently grown more extreme across the major industrialized centers," and reporting that "record cold snaps and heavy snowfall events across the United States, Europe and East Asia garnered much public attention during the winters of 2009/10 and 2010/11 (Blunden et al., 2011; Cohen et al., 2010)," with the latter set of researchers suggesting that "the occurrence of more severe Northern Hemisphere winter weather is a two-decade-long trend starting around 1988." So what's going on here? Cohen et al. say that "whether the recent colder winters are a consequence of internal variability or a response to changes in boundary forcings resulting from climate change remains an open question." But like most scientists who love to resolve dilemmas, they go on to propose their answer to the puzzle, suggesting that "summer and autumn warming trends are concurrent with increases in high-latitude moisture and an increase in Eurasian snow cover, which dynamically induces large-scale wintertime cooling." But, again, who knows? The only thing that is certain, as Cohen et al. describe it, is that "traditional radiative greenhouse gas theory and coupled climate models forced by increasing greenhouse gases alone cannot account for this seasonal asymmetry." And so we have yet another reason why so many scientists are so skeptical about the ability of even the most sophisticated of today's climate models to adequately portray reality. Models Flawed - GlaciersCurrent glacial models are totally unreliable Sherwood, Keith, and Craig Idso et al 2011 (Craig, PhD in geography @Arizona State, M.S. in Agronomy from U Nebraska) Weaknesses in Our Knowledge of Land-Ice/Sea-Level Interactions http://co2science.org/articles/V14/N43/EDIT.php In a review paper published in Oceanography, Pfeffer (2011) provides a 30-year perspective on what scientists have learned about the relationship between land ice and sea level, while at the same time openly acknowledging the weaknesses associated with current views of the subject. The professor -- who holds positions in both the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research and the Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering of the University of Colorado at Boulder (USA) -- begins by acknowledging that for all the success of air- and space-borne observations of glaciers and ice sheets, "certain long-standing objectives have consistently eluded researchers," such as obtaining trustworthy observations of basal sliding and calving, as well as an improved understanding of subglacial processes, while further writing that "at present, the foundations of our theoretical knowledge of subglacial sliding and iceberg calving are not very different than what was available at the time of the First IPCC Assessment (Houghton et al., 1990)." "As was the case nearly three decades ago," as Pfeffer continues, "basal sliding and calving remain obscure but exert critical controls on glacier and ice sheet dynamics," and he notes that as a result, "the lack of detailed observations of basal topography, temperature, and other boundary conditions in critical regions further complicates modeling efforts." In fact, he writes that the situation is so bleak that researchers "have still not closed the gaps in our knowledge to a degree that 'sliding laws' can be reliably and broadly implemented in numerical models," even adding that "no clear solution to this problem is in sight." Pfeffer additionally reports that there has been "no comprehensive, global upscaled compilation of glacier and ice cap loss rates after 2005," stating that "without any proper accounting of the aggregate glacier and ice cap loss rate, the net loss from land ice cannot be reliably calculated." And without such observations, he adds that "no reliable assessment of contemporary rates of sea level rise can be made," commenting that "without this knowledge, projections of sea level rise are blind to future contributions from glaciers and ice caps." In concluding his "weakness" commentary, Pfeffer states that our ability to project what glacier and ice discharge will actually be in years and decades to come "is grossly compromised, both by lack of basic inventory knowledge (where are the glaciers and how big are they?) and up-to-date observations of their rate of change." Thus, there is still much important work to be done in the area of land-ice/sea-level interactions before we can have much confidence in what the world's climate alarmists are currently predicting about future sea level rise.
Sherwood, Keith, and Craig Idso et al 2011 (Craig, PhD in geography @Arizona State, M.S. in Agronomy from U Nebraska) State-of-the-Art Climate Models and Extreme Meteorological Events and Consequences http://co2science.org/articles/V14/N30/EDIT.php In a recent paper published in Climate Research, Trenberth (2011) compares the projections of state-of-the-art climate models with what is known about the real world with respect to extreme meteorological events related to atmospheric moisture, such as precipitation and various types of storm systems, as well as subsequent extreme consequences such as droughts, floods and wind damage. So what does he find? In the concluding sentence of his paper's abstract, the U.S. researcher -- a Distinguished Senior Scientist in the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research -- states that model-simulated precipitation "occurs prematurely and too often, and with insufficient intensity, resulting in recycling that is too large and a lifetime of moisture in the atmosphere that is too short, which affects runoff and soil moisture," while in the text of the paper he writes that "all models contain large errors in precipitation simulations, both in terms of mean fields and their annual cycle (such as the spurious migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone into the other hemisphere), as well as their characteristics: the intensity, frequency, and duration of precipitation, plus the amount (e.g. IPCC, 2007; Bosilovich et al., 2008; Liepert and Previdi, 2009)." And he states that "it appears that many, perhaps all, global climate and numerical weather prediction models and even many high-resolution regional models have a premature onset of convection and overly frequent precipitation with insufficient intensity," citing the work of Yang and Slingo (2001) and Dai and Trenberth (2004). Continuing, Trenberth states that "confidence in model results for changes in extremes is tempered by the large scatter among the extremes in modeling today's climate, especially in the tropics and subtropics (Kharin et al., 2007), which relates to poor depiction of transient tropical disturbances, including easterly waves, Madden-Julian Oscillations, tropical storms, and hurricanes (Lin et al., 2006)." These phenomena, in his words, "are very resolution dependent, but also depend on parameterizations of sub-grid-scale convection, the shortcomings of which are revealed in diurnal cycle simulations," wherein "models produce precipitation that is too frequent and with insufficient intensity (Yang and Slingo, 2001; Trenberth et al., 2003; Dai and Trenberth, 2004; Dai, 2006)." In light of these several observations, Trenberth concludes that "major challenges remain to improve model simulations of the hydrological cycle." And until such is accomplished and it is proven that the models can at least correctly simulate something as basic as precipitation, it would seem unwise in the extreme to make major global-economy-impacting political decisions on so flimsy a basis as what today's climate models are currently predicting, not only with respect to the meteorological phenomena that are discussed by Trenberth, but with respect to the many other extreme weather and climatic events that the world's climate alarmists use to terrorize the public on a never-ending basis via their over-the-top rhetoric about impending catastrophic consequences if anthropogenic CO2 emissions are not drastically reduced. Directory: files files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2 files -> Integer programming and game theory files -> 4 Integer Programming files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. Objective files -> Pop Warner History files -> North Carolina Inclusion Initiative Mapping Where Children with ieps are Being Served Purpose files -> Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Program Data: Standard 1 Exhibit 4d files -> Hanban – asia society confucius classrooms network 2010 request for proposal files -> Northern England’s set-jetting locations Download 0.98 Mb. Share with your friends:
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