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- No link – other sectors are key to the drone market
- -----Warrants solve
- -----UQ Overwhelms
- -----AT: Law enforcement
- Law enforcement isn’t key
- Law enforcement adoption won’t impact the market
Drones Aff---MarketDrone market predictions are wrong – studies are flawedSnow, 15 Colin Snow, CEO and Founder of Drone Analyst, “Diversity and Hype in Commercial Drone Market Forecasts,” SuasNews, 6/9/15, http://www.suasnews.com/2015/06/36485/diversity-and-hype-in-commercial-drone-market-forecasts/ // IS All forecasts are wrong No one argues that forecasts and market projections are a critical part of business planning, management, and strategy. However, the first thing you learn as a forecaster (I was one) is that forecasts are always wrong – it’s just a matter of how wrong. You also learn that the further out in time you forecast (1 year vs. 10 years), the greater the error. And while that might sound gloomy, it is reality, and if you are looking to start or invest in a commercial drone business and you are relying on these forecasts, you should recognize an important trap. Proper forecasts are created by taking actuals (historical unit sales, purchases, revenue, etc.) and projecting forward in time some kind of trend – either flat, up, or down. Statisticians know that the more historical data you have the greater likelihood your projection will be accurate. But what happens when there is no history to go by? Such is the case with the commercial drones market. It’s a nascent industry, and we have little to no historical data. So here’s the trap. Forecasters have to either borrow historical data from a similar industry or size a market potential with a proxy. No link – other sectors are key to the drone marketBallve, 7/2 Marcelo Ballve, Editorial Director for Business Insider's paid subscription research service BI Intelligence from late 2012 to early 2015. He is now research director at CB Insights, a data startup focused on venture capital and private companies. Ballvé is a graduate of Brown University and Columbia University's school of international and public affairs, “THE DRONES REPORT: Market Forecasts, Regulatory Barriers, Top Vendors, And Leading Commercial Applications,” Business Insider, 7/2/15, http://www.businessinsider.com/drones-report-market-forecast-2015-3 // IS A growing ecosystem of drone software and hardware vendors is already catering to a long list of clients in agriculture, land management, energy, and construction. Many of the vendors are smallish private companies and startups — although large defense-focused companies and industrial conglomerates are beginning to invest in drone technology, too. In this report from BI Intelligence, we take a deep dive into the various levels of the growing global industry for commercial drones, or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). This 32-page report provides forecasts for the business opportunity in commercial drone technology, looks at advances and persistent barriers, highlights the top business-to-business markets in terms of applications and end users, and provides an exclusive list of dozens of notable companies already active in the space. Finally, it digs into the current state of US regulation of commercial drones, recently upended by the issuing of the Federal Aviation Administration's draft rules for commercial drone flights. Few people know that many companies are already authorized to fly small drones commercially under a US government "exemption" program. Here are some of the main takeaways from the report:
E-commerce and package delivery will not be an early focus of the drone industry. Legacy drone manufacturers focused mostly on military clients do not have a natural advantage in the fast-evolving civilian drone market. -----Warrants solveWarrants check market collapseJohnson, 14 Sandy Johnson, executive editor of Stateline.org, a project of the Pew Charitable Trusts. She is the former Managing Editor at the Center for Public Integrity. “Balancing Privacy, Jobs in Drone Debate,” Pew Trusts, 4/11/14, http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2014/04/11/balancing-privacy-jobs-in-drone-debate // IS In Utah, Republican Gov. Gary Herbert signed a bill that sets limits on law enforcement use of drone technology. The law requires law officers to obtain a search warrant before using a drone in most situations. It would also regulate what kinds of data can be collected and how long it can be stored, and it requires the data to be made public after an investigation is over. In Wisconsin, the legislature passed a bill that requires law enforcement to obtain a warrant before using drones except in emergency situations, and outlaws drone surveillance of people who have a reasonable expectation of privacy. Republican Gov. Scott Walker signed the bill Tuesday. One sponsor said the bill struck a balance between privacy rights and public safety. “It is important that our laws advance as technology progresses. Even inexpensive drone technology is capable of capturing high-resolution pictures of people's homes and areas we consider most private and worthy of protection,” Republican Sen. Jerry Petrowski said. He said the legislation was written so it does not cut off commercial development related to drones. -----UQ OverwhelmsNothing can stop the drone marketSnyder, 14 Christopher Snyder, Producer at Fox News Channel, “US commercial drone market set to explode,” Fox News, 12/11/14, http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2014/12/11/get-set-for-more-commercial-drone-flights/ // IS The Federal Aviation Administration‘s decision to allow four companies to fly commercial drones has the private sector buzzing over the possibility of expanded commercial drone flights in the near future. One of the companies, Clayco, is planning to use California-based drone startup Skycatch to fly multi-rotor drones to survey its construction sites. Skycatch’s Head of Policy Gabriel Dobbs told FoxNews.com “this is a fantastic sign for all the players in the commercial UAV [unmanned aerial vehicle] industry.” Dobbs is in charge of working with federal agencies in the U.S. and abroad to craft policy for the next generation of UAVs. "We’re going to see this commercial market explode in the United States within the next year." Dobbs’ company has been working with the FAA for nearly two years to get approval. Before this announcement, he saw a “huge bottleneck in the official use of drones in the U.S. because of the FAA's current ban on commercial drones and pending regulations.” He added, “in spite of the regulatory obstacles, the future of drones is clearly bright … this new technology is simply too great for regulators to contain.” -----AT: Law enforcementNo link – ag market comparatively outweighsAckerman, 13 Spencer Ackerman, winner of the 2012 National Magazine Award for Reporting in Digital Media, citing the Vice President of AUVSI, “Drone Boosters Say Farmers, Not Cops, Are the Biggest U.S. Robot Market,” Wired, 2/3/13, http://www.wired.com/2013/02/drone-farm/ // IS No, Predators and Reapers aren’t going to scan large swaths of vegetation for suspected militants. And there’s tremendous interest from state and local law enforcement in drones as surveillance tools. But to Chris Mailey, a vice president with the drone promotion organization known as AUVSI, the cop shops represent short money. “Agriculture,” Mailey tells Danger Room, “is gonna be the big market.” To Mailey, it’s a question of where the growth opportunities are. Military drone purchases are plateauing, even as the drones become increasingly central to U.S. counterterrorism. And there are limits, financial and otherwise, to the ability of police departments to purchase drones. Farming looks like a drone market with both fewer impediments and bigger incentives for early technological adoption. Law enforcement isn’t keySnow, 15 Colin Snow, CEO and Founder of Drone Analyst, “Diversity and Hype in Commercial Drone Market Forecasts,” SuasNews, 6/9/15, http://www.suasnews.com/2015/06/36485/diversity-and-hype-in-commercial-drone-market-forecasts/ // IS Markets and Markets – sells a 180+ page report on the commercial drones market by type, technology, application, and geography for $4,560. They expect the global market for small UAS to reach $1.9 billion by the end of 2020. They state the obvious and say the increase in civil and military applications remains the driving factor for the global small UAV market. They go on to say that among all the key applications (law enforcement, energy and power, manufacturing, infrastructure, media and entertainment, agriculture, and scientific research) law enforcement will hold the largest market share at ~25%. My research says the opposite it true – at least in the U.S. That’s because adoption by local and state police agencies here already is and will continue to be fraught with controversy over privacy and Fourth Amendment rights. Law enforcement adoption won’t impact the marketSnow, 15 Colin Snow, CEO and Founder of Drone Analyst, “FAA Proposed Drone Rules: Market Opportunity Winners and Losers,” Drone Analyst, 2/16/15, http://droneanalyst.com/2015/02/16/faa-drone-rules-market-winners-and-losers/ // IS The DOT evaluation dedicates an entire section to “Search and Rescue/Law Enforcement” (see section IV.A.1.c. page 19 ff). It describes how small UAS missions can create significant cost savings to federal, state, and local government entities because they offer a more economical alternative to manned helicopters. The report estimates (page 20): “…a significant number of public entities will contract the services of a small UAS operator. … The FAA and industry expect that some of the larger public entities would train their own operators and purchase and operate their own small UAS. The majority of the smaller public safety departments that could not afford to train their officers to fly a small UAS would contract these services out to commercial small UAS enterprises as the need arises.” If true, this would create a viable market. But there a few catches. The first catch is the proposed rule does not allow sUAS operations at night. The second is there are or will be local rules to contend with that prohibit certain types of operations, like surveilling criminal suspects. The third is the recent Presidential Memo creating standards for how government agencies and some recipients of federal funds will address the privacy issues associated with drones.
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