Blank 2000 (Stephen, professor at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College. American Grand Strategy and the Transcaspian Region, “U.S. Military Engagement with Transcaucasia and Central Asia,” World Affairs) MJ
If real peace, true independence, economic stability, and the future prosperity that depends on those three factors are to endure, political stability must take root. Unfortunately, most factors here work against long-term stability. The linkage between authoritarian, personalist government and violence is a profound structural cause for regional unrest and ethnic violence. Once that violence begins, it is hard to stop for two reasons. First, ethnic wars where land, sovereignty, and the integrity of the state and of the government are at stake are intrinsically harder to stop, even more so than civil wars.81 Second, foreign powers are almost certain to try to exploit conflict and perhaps prolong it to their own advantage. C. A terrorist getting a hold of nuclear materials is the largest and most probable threat of our time
Siddiqi 4/16 (Shibil, Fellow with the Center for the Study of Global Power and Politics at Trent University, “Terrorism: The nuclear summit’s ‘straw man’,” Asia Times Online, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LD16Ak02.html) MJ
American President Barack Obama gathered 47 national delegations for the first Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) in Washington on April 12 and 13. It was the largest gathering of world leaders in Washington since the close of World War II. The scale of the summit was meant to impress the gravity of the subject matter. In Obama's words, "This is an unprecedented gathering to address an unprecedented threat": the prevention of nuclear terrorism. In trademark style, Obama offered rhetorical flourishes to fit the occasion: "Two decades after the Cold War we face a cruel irony of history. The risk of nuclear confrontation between nations has gone down, but the risk of nuclear attack as gone up". The president said that a tiny scrap of plutonium the size of an apple was now the biggest threat to world stability, with "just the tiniest amount of plutonium" in the wrong hands posing potential for catastrophe. However, the president's assessment of global nuclear threats paper over some basic realities. The threat of nuclear confrontation remains dangerously high despite the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) with Russia and America's passive-aggressive Nuclear Posture Review. This is particularly true along the nuclear fault-lines in the Middle East and South Asia which have existed since the Cold War. Perhaps a "dirty bomb" made out of a handful of plutonium or other radiological material forms the most significant "nuclear" threat to the US. But outside of this Western-centric world-view, it is the threat of nuclear attack or exchange in the Middle East and South Asia - home to nearly a fourth of the world's population - that clearly remains the largest global nuclear threat.
US-Turkey Relations Good Ext (Middle East)
Turkey-US cohesion key to Middle East stability- Iran, Afghanistan and Israel prove
Goodenough 09 (Patrick, International editor, CNS news, As Turkey Tilts Away From the West, Obama Hails Erdogan As ‘Friend’, https://mail.google.com/mail/?shva=1#inbox/129bac1c6791f10e) BAF
President Obama said Monday Turkey could be “an important player” in efforts to prod Iran to keep its nuclear program peaceful – although an increasingly assertive Ankara has tilted perceptibly towards Tehran this year in its standoff with the West. Characterizing Turkey as “a great country” and visiting Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan as a personal friend, Obama said he was optimistic about the prospect of “stronger and stronger” bilateral ties in the future. Turkey, a Muslim but officially secular member of NATO which aspires to join the European Union, is currently a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. It was among the handful of countries Obama visited in his first presidential trip outside North America last April. Speaking after their meeting – which Turkish media noted with enthusiasm had lasted for two hours – Obama praised Turkey for its “outstanding contributions” in Afghanistan. Turkey recently doubled the number of troops deployed in the NATO-led mission there to about 1,750, although none are combat troops. Turkey has the second-largest standing army in NATO (after the U.S.), more than twice the size of that of Britain, which has almost 10,000 troops in Afghanistan. The warm words at the Oval Office came despite recent trends in Turkey, including its criticism of the West’s handling of the Iran issue and a significant cooling in relations with Israel since last winter’s military offensive against Hamas in Gaza. At a time when the West is edging closer to tightening sanctions against Iran, Turkey is pushing in the other direction. Erdogan’s government last week did not support an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resolution censuring Iran for its uranium enrichment activities and referring the matter to the U.N. Security Council. Addressing a press conference at a Washington hotel after the White House meeting, Erdogan reiterated his opposition to sanctions. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan addresses lawmakers in Ankara on Tuesday, Dec. 1, 2009. (AP Photo) “We have specifically stated that the [Iran nuclear] question can be resolved through diplomacy and diplomacy only,” he said. U.S. ‘disappointed’ by Turkey’s stance in IAEA vote In a background briefing ahead of the visit, a senior administration official stressed the importance of U.S.-Turkey relations, but also hinted at some of the problem areas. “We have no problem with Turkey reaching out to Iran, talking to Iran,” he said. “But it is important to us that the message be the same” as that of “the rest of the international community.” The official said the U.S. believed sanctions would be most effective if broad and “multi-nationally imposed,” and that “Turkey would be an important player on this issue.” He said Ankara’s decision to abstain rather than vote in favor of the Nov. 27 IAEA resolution had “disappointed” the U.S., which would continue to encourage Turkey and others to join “what we hope will be a common line.” In the vote by the 35-member board of IAEA governors, three countries – Venezuela, Cuba and Malaysia – voted against the resolution and Turkey was joined by Afghanistan, Egypt, Pakistan, Brazil and South Africa in abstaining. Although Turkey has traditionally had better ties with Israel than any other important country in the Muslim world, that changed dramatically this year, with Ankara positioning itself as a leading critic of the Jewish state. On ties with Israel, a second administration official at the briefing said that if the Turks wished to play a constructive role in Mideast peace efforts, “they need to be seen by all relevant participants in such a dialogue as an honest broker.” If Turkey did not return to the “very strong and cooperative relationship” it previously had with Israel, the official said, “it’s going to be harder for them to lead in the way they would like to lead.”