Russia/China alliance kills U.S hegemony and causes war Fraser 8 (Ian, journalist for The Sunday Herald, UK, Sep 6, [www.heraldscotland.com/leading-historian-issues-warning-of-a-new-cold-war-1.826378] AD: 7-9-11, jam)
THE SCOTTISH historian Niall Ferguson has warned that the strategic alliance between China and Russia is more of a threat to the West than the credit crunch. Ferguson, a best-selling author, broadcaster and professor of history at Harvard University, said that the development of the new Russia-China powerblock was set to put the two economic heavyweights on a path to confrontation with much of the rest of the world. Speaking at Making Sense Of The Future, a conference organised by the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Scotland (ICAS) at Gleneagles, Ferguson also warned that unless Iran suspends its nuclear weapons programme a full-scale war in the Middle East is inevitable. “I believe that Russia’s prime minister Vladimir Putin is about to have his Molotov-Ribbentrop moment,” said Ferguson, referring to the pre-second world war non-aggression pact between Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia. “He’s going to realise that Moscow and Beijing can have a new and meaningful partnership.” Ferguson also warned that the West had to sit up and take notice of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation. The SCO was officially founded in 2001 as a counterpart to Nato and the European Union. Aside from China and Russia its members are Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Ferguson said that the SCO had sneaked “under the radar” of the West, and its activities should be carefully monitored. The group’s heads of state held an under-reported summit in Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan, on August 28 and 29, at which Russia was praised for its “active role in contributing to peace and co-operation”, despite its military action in Georgia. “The more Russia and China establish that they have common interests, which could include Iran, the more powerful the SCO is going to become,” Ferguson said. “The strengthening of the SCO has profound implications. If the countries which belong to that organisation decide they are going to defy the rules of the World Trade Organisation, then a fundamental shift has occurred inthe nature of our international order, and that would have implications for all of us. The real threat to globalisation today is not the subprime crisis. The real threats are geopolitical.” Ferguson believes the biggest of all theats is the resurgence of both Russia – which he says is intent on recreating the USSR’s empire following its recent military success in Georgia – and China, which is “making a clearly calculated bid for Asian hegemonyChina’s ambitions extend far beyond winning more gold medals than the United States. Rather like the Berlin Olympics of 1936, that’s just phase one.” “Russia’s agenda of resuscitating the Soviet Union doesn’t stop with Georgia,” said Ferguson, who is also a senior research fellow at Jesus College, Oxford, and a historian who has been likened to the great scholar AJP Taylor. “They will now move on to the bigger prize of the Ukraine and specifically to the Crimean enclave. That’s the next card that Putin will play.” Ferguson also warned of a coming conflagration in the Middle East, which he said will be sparked by Iran’s determination to develop nuclear weapons. “If Iran continues in this vein,” he said, “then a major war in the Middle East is a racing certainty. There’s no way Israel is going to allow this to happen and there’s no way whoever takes over as US president will stand idly by.” Ferguson believes that Russia has an interest in stoking up such a confrontation at the expense of the West.
Space Race ! – Russia/China – Hegemony
A fully-fledged alliance would threaten hegemony Cohen 1 (Ariel, Research Fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies in the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies at The Heritage Foundation, Jul 18, [www.heritage.org/research/reports/2001/07/the-russia-china-friendship-and-cooperation-treaty] AD: 7-9-11, jam)
The state-run media in Russia and China often point to "U.S. hegemonism" and "U.S. power politics," and call for the "establishment of a new international order" under United Nations tutelage.9 Some of the forms of cooperation that have followed such rhetoric clearly pose a threat to U.S. interests. For example, the Russian and Chinese navies began conducting joint military exercises in 1999.10 These maneuvers included the Russian Pacific Fleet missile cruisers and destroyers as well as warships from the Chinese Eastern Fleet.11 The Sino-Russian exercises this year allegedly included Russian TU-22 bombers equipped with long-range nuclear-capable cruise missiles flying attack missions against simulated U.S. forces in East Asia.12 In view of these actions, the assertions made by the Chinese and Russians that the new strategic relationship is not aimed at any one nation have a particularly hollow ring.13 More than the formalization of the new treaty, it is the massive Russian arms sales and WMD-related technology transfers to China that make the multipolar rhetoric of these new "friends" of particular concern to the United States and its allies in Asia. A world system that is not dominated by one country is attractive to both Moscow and Beijing for similar reasons: Economically, it offers them alternative sources of technology, financing, and markets for their raw materials, goods, and services. Moreover, an overburdened U.S. military would pose less of a risk to Russia and China in the regions where they assert their own power. Alternative poles of power in which there is a proliferation of weapons of mass destruction would force the United States to spread its resources thinly to deal with evolving crises in different regions simultaneously. The reason for Russia's willingness to support China's security interests and vice versa may lie in the fact that each country now views the other as its "strategic rear."14 Russian leaders have often stated that the threats to Russia are NATO enlargement to the East15 and radical Islamic forces active in Chechnya and among Moscow's Central Asian allies. Beijing views U.S. predominance in the post-Cold War world--from its success in the Gulf War to its support of Taiwan security--as important threats to China. Russia has stated that "there is only one China" and that Taiwan is China's "internal affair," while Beijing has expressed unequivocal support for Russia's strong-arm tactics in Chechnya.16