Prolif good – War


Middle East Prolif Bad – Heg



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Middle East Prolif Bad – Heg




Middle East proliferation eviscerates US hegemony


Richard Maass, PhD candidate whose primary research interests concern international security, IR theory, US foreign policy, and qualitative and mixed-method research, Spring 2010 (“Nuclear Proliferation and Declining U.S. Hegemony,” Hamilton College, Accessed online at http://www.hamilton.edu/documents//levitt-center/Maass_article.pdf, Accessed on 7/19/11)

Nuclear proliferation decreases the United States’ military strength relative to other nations as they develop nuclear arsenals, creating a paradox of “weak state power”(Ae-Park, 2001, pg. 451). Essentially, nuclear weapons place states on a level playing field, producing an equalizing effect. Relatively weaker nations “favor nuclearization as a way of leveling the playing field” (Trachtenberg, 2002, pg. 152). In regions vital to U.S. political affairs, proliferation escalates political tensions, potentially decreasing U.S. influence. In the Middle East, increased friction among Arabic states with unstable U.S. relations would severely inhibit the United States’ access to the region’s oil resources. The U.S. Department of Defense stated the following sentiment to this effect in its 2001 report “Proliferation: Threat and Response”: U.S. goals in the Middle East and Africa include securing a just, lasting, and comprehensive peace…building and maintaining security arrangements that assure the stability of the Gulf region and unimpeded commercial access to its petroleum reserves…In this volatile region, the proliferation of [nuclear] weapons and the means of delivering them poses a significant challenge to the ability of the United States to achieve these goals (Office of the Secretary of Defense, 2001, pg. 33). Post World War II, the U.S. maintains a military presence in the Middle East to ensure access to petroleum reserves. Proliferation constitutes a pressing threat to regional stability as Gulf states compete to control critical oil supplies in order to further their political and military objectives. The spread of nuclear weapons would escalate conflict tensions and increase the will to confront the United States and threaten its regional interests. States, such as Iran, recognize they cannot conventionally match U.S. military power and thus seek alternative means to combat the U.S., in an effort to offset their own relative weakness (US Department of Defense, 2001, pg.1).


Missile Prolif Bad – Escalation




Proliferation causes escalation


Mistry 03 – Associate professor of Political Science at the University of Cincinnati (UC). He specializes in international relations, security studies, technology and politics, and Asian security. He has been a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center; the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University; and the Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University. (Dinshaw, “Containing Missile Proliferation,” p. 12)

Missile activity has destabilizing political consequences in both wartime and peacetime. Missile strikes that terrorize a target population and increase pressures on political leaders to retaliate can considerably escalate conflicts. In the Gulf War, Iraq’s missile strikes against Israel could have had a very serious political impact. The Coalition might have fractured as Arab states left if it Israel had retaliated against Iraq. Further, ballistic missiles escalated tensions in the prewar phase (because of Iraq’s declared policy of threatening Israel), widened the war’s parameters once the fighting began, and diverted significant air power and special force resources away from other military tasks.

Proliferation causes interstate regional conflict


Mistry 03 – Associate professor of Political Science at the University of Cincinnati (UC). He specializes in international relations, security studies, technology and politics, and Asian security. He has been a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center; the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University; and the Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University. (Dinshaw, “Containing Missile Proliferation,” p. 12)

Missile proliferation can also increase the likelihood of interstate conflict in the long term. International conflict studies suggest that neighboring states are more likely to fight wars with each other, and that proximity correlates positively with conflict. Ballistic missiles can quickly strike distant states and thereby bring distant states “closer” to each other, which (especially if deterrence stability cannot be attained) could increase interstate tensions and the likelihood of regional conflict. Moreover, missile deployments can be provocative in a region where nuclear weapons are vulnerable to a preemptive strike. Missiles then undermine the stability of deterrence.

Missile Prolif Bad – NPT




Missile prolif destabilizes the world and collapses non-prolif efforts.


Mistry 03 – Associate professor of Political Science at the University of Cincinnati (UC). He specializes in international relations, security studies, technology and politics, and Asian security. He has been a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center; the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University; and the Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University. (Dinshaw, “Containing Missile Proliferation,” p. 9)

On strategic grounds, missile proliferation undermines the nuclear, biological, and chemical nonproliferation regimes. Ballistic missiles enable states (and nonstate actors and terrorist groups) to quickly deliver weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) to distant regions, thereby exacerbating the WMD threat and weakening the nonproliferation regime. Conversely, halting missile proliferation mitigates the WMD threat, strengthens the nonproliferation regime, and enhances international security.




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