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US-Japan relations Good- China
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US-Japan relations Good- ChinaRelations key to solving China AggressionMedeiros 06[Evan S. Medeiros- a political scientist at the RAND Corporation, “Strategic Hedging and theFuture of Asia-Pacific Stability”, The Washington Quarterly, Winter 05-06, http://www.twq.com/06winter/docs/06winter_medeiros.pdf ]The U.S.-Japanese alliance is the most important and long-standing element of U.S. security strategy in Asia and is central to its efforts to hedge against the possible emergence of a revisionist China. The Bush administration has consistently taken steps to increase Japan's military role and diplomatic involvement in global and regional security affairs. U.S. strategists support such actions in arguing they are commensurate with Japan's position as an economic power, as a means to burden-share with Japan in addressing regional security challenges, and as consistent with U.S. efforts to shape China's ascendance and dissuade it from potentially destabilizing actions in the future. n12 The United States seeks a "global partnership" with Japan and is pursuing this by encouraging it to contribute to U.S. military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, coordinating extensively with Tokyo on regional aid and relief issues, and augmenting bilateral defense trade. The United States also supports constitutional reform that could allow Japan's military potentially to expand and be more active in the region. Such an expanded role was demonstrated by the participation of Japanese forces in the U.S.-Thai-Singaporean "Cobra Gold" military exercise with Southeast Asian nations for the first time this year. U.S.-Japanese military technical cooperation is also growing, especially on missile defenses. In February 2005, the United States and Japan issued for the first time a highly consequential joint statement that explicitly tied the bilateral alliance to peace and security in the Taiwan Strait. Finally, the current U.S. Global Defense Posture Review envisions changes in deployments and command structures that would increase interoperability and further facilitate Japan's military assuming a greater role in U.S.-led military operations in Asia and beyond.n13 US-Japan relations Good- TaiwanRelations Key to solving Taiwan WarOkamoto 02[Yukio Okamoto, president of Okamoto Associates, Inc., special adviser to the cabinet and chairman of the Japanese prime minister’s Task Force on Foreign Relations. The Washington Quarterly, Spring 2002, http://www.twq.com/02spring/okamoto.pdf]Regardless of whether China's development take the bright path or the fearful one, however, reason for concern exists on one issue: the resolution of the status of Taiwan. Chinese citizens from all walks of life have an attachment to the reunification of Taiwan and the mainland that transcends reason. The U.S.-Japan alliance represents a significant hope for a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan problem. Both Japan and the United States have clearly stated that they oppose reunification by force. When China conducted provocative missile tests in the waters around Taiwan in 1996, the United States sent two aircraft carrier groups into nearby waters as a sign of its disapproval of China's belligerent act. Japan seconded the U.S. action, raising in Chinese minds the possibility that Japan might offer logistical and other support to its ally in the event of hostilities. Even though intervention is only a possibility, a strong and close tie between Japanese and U.S. security interests guarantees that the Chinese leadership cannot afford to miscalculate the consequences of an unprovoked attack on Taiwan. The alliance backs up Japan's basic stance that the two sides need to come to a negotiated solution. Nuclear WarStrait Times 2k[ “Regional Fallout: No one gains in war over Taiwan”6/25/00, Lexis] THE DOOMSDAY SCENARIO THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross-strait war escalating into a full-scale war between the US and China. If Washington were to conclude that splitting China would better serve its national interests, then a full-scale war becomes unavoidable. Conflict on such a scale would embroil other countries far and near and -- horror of horrors -- raise the possibility of a nuclear war. Beijing has already told the US and Japan privately that it considers any country providing bases and logistics support to any US forces attacking China as belligerent parties open to its retaliation. In the region, this means South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and, to a lesser extent, Singapore. If China were to retaliate, east Asia will be set on fire. And the conflagration may not end there as opportunistic powers elsewhere may try to overturn the existing world order. With the US distracted, Russia may seek to redefine Europe's political landscape. The balance of power in the Middle East may be similarly upset by the likes of Iraq. In south Asia, hostilities between India and Pakistan, each armed with its own nuclear arsenal, could enter a new and dangerous phase. Will a full-scale Sino-US war lead to a nuclear war? According to General Matthew Ridgeway, commander of the US Eighth Army which fought against the Chinese in the Korean War, the US had at the time thought of using nuclear weapons against China to save the US from military defeat. In his book The Korean War, a personal account of the military and political aspects of the conflict and its implications on future US foreign policy, Gen Ridgeway said that US was confronted with two choices in Korea -- truce or a broadened war, which could have led to the use of nuclear weapons. If the US had to resort to nuclear weaponry to defeat China long before the latter acquired a similar capability, there is little hope of winning a war against China 50 years later, short of using nuclear weapons. The US estimates that China possesses about 20 nuclear warheads that can destroy major American cities. Beijing also seems prepared to go for the nuclear option. A Chinese military officer disclosed recently that Beijing was considering a review of its "non first use" principle regarding nuclear weapons. Major-General Pan Zhangqiang, president of the military-funded Institute for Strategic Studies, told a gathering at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars in Washington that although the government still abided by that principle, there were strong pressures from the military to drop it. He said military leaders considered the use of nuclear weapons mandatory if the country risked dismemberment as a result of foreign intervention. Gen Ridgeway said that should that come to pass, we would see the destruction of civilization. There would be no victors in such a war. While the prospect of a nuclear Armageddon over Taiwan might seem inconceivable, it cannot be ruled out entirely, for China puts sovereignty above everything else. 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