The [first/next] off-case position is the india da: First, us-india relations are high and driven by mutual distrust towards China

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Uniqueness

Relations High — General

US-Indo Relations high — they’re essential for every global issue.

Biswal 16 — Nisha Desai Biswal is an Indian-American who is Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs in the United States Department of State. She was previously Assistant Administrator for Asia at the US Agency for International Development (USAID). She was nominated for the post of Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia by US President Barack Obama on 19 July 2013. Biswal immigrated to the U.S. from India with her parents. May 24, 2016, U.S.-India Relations: Balancing Progress and Managing Expectations, http://www.state.gov/p/sca/rls/rmks/2016/257665.htm, @yangtri 7/19/16

As prepared Introduction Thank you, Chairman Corker and Ranking Member Cardin, for inviting me to testify today on the progress and expectations of the U.S.-India relationship. The White House announced last week that President Obama will host Indian Prime Minister Modi on June 7th. The Prime Minister has also been invited to address a joint session of the U.S. Congress during that visit. So this hearing provides us with a timely opportunity to take stock of the U.S.–India relationship. Sixteen years ago, when another Indian Prime Minister, Atal Vajpayee, had the honor of addressing the U.S. Congress at the dawn of this new century, he set out a vision that the United States and India – based on our our shared values and common interests – would forge a natural partnership that would help to shape the century to come. Since that time, and over the past eight years, we have seen a tremendous amount of progress across every major dimension of our (The US-Indo) relationship, including our strategic, economic, defense and security, and energy and environment ties. When President Obama welcomes Prime Minister Modi to Washington next month, we will be able to say with confidence that relations between our two great democracies have never been stronger, even as both sides recognize there is much more to be done. Strategic Relations The strategic partnership between the United States and India is anchored on the premise that our two democratic, pluralistic, and secular societies share not only many of the same attributes but also many of the same aspirations. It is that premise which has led President Obama to characterize the relationship as a defining partnership of the 21st century. India is the world’s largest democracy, Asia’s fastest-growing major economy, and soon-to-be the most populous nation on Earth. How India grows its economy, evolves its strategic doctrine, asserts its interests and values, and projects its growing economic, military, and political power will have important consequences not just for 1.25 billion Indian citizens, but increasingly for the rest of the planet. That is why the U.S.-India partnership is of such extraordinary importance for the United States and one that will, I believe, shape the future of geo-politics and –economics in the 21st century. Mr. Chairman, as we reflect on the ambitious trajectory of this important relationship, one must give credit to the previous administrations in the United States and India, and to the U.S. Congress, for setting us on this path. The historic U.S.–India Civil Nuclear Agreement of 2008, signed by President Bush and Prime Minister Singh, and passed with bipartisan support in Congress, not only made possible civil nuclear cooperation between the United States and India, but laid a foundation on which we have built a strategic partnership that has made both countries safer and more prosperpous. The U.S.–India Strategic Dialogue, launched by Secretary Clinton in 2009, has expanded dramatically in the past seven years and now includes high-level bilateral dialogues and working groups spanning policy planning, global leadership, finance and economics, commerce, transportation, aviation, space, climate change, maritime security, energy security, infrastructure, cyber policy, defense policy, political-military relations, homeland security, the oceans, East Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and the United Nations. There was no hyperbole in Secretary Kerry’s statement last year that “we may do more with India – on a government-to-government basis, than with any other nation.”

US-India relations high-increased investment and multipronged economic cooperation

Kronstadt and Akhtar 16--- K. Alan Kronstadt and Shayerah Ilias Akhtar, Specialist in South Asian Affairs , Specialist in International Trade and Finance, June 6^th 2016, (“India-U.S. Relations and the Visit of Prime Minister Modi”, CRS Insight, https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/IN10500.pdf, Accessed 7/25/16, Schloss)

Many observe that U.S.-India trade relations are at an all-time high, with total trade crossing $100 billion, investment trending upward, and multi-pronged economic cooperation. Yet many also see greater potential given India's position as the world's third-largest and fastest-growing economy. The two nations pledged to quintuple their annual trade by 2024, but challenges persist, including in India's business environment. The United States continues to press India on numerous trade fronts such as intellectual property rights (IPR) protection. India's concerns center on U.S. policies affecting Indian nationals in services trade. Two years into the Modi Administration, many U.S. policymakers and stakeholders are concerned that neither the Indian government's rhetoric, nor bilateral engagement, has led to substantial, sustained economic reforms in India, superseding earlier optimism about the likelihood of expanding U.S.- India commercial ties. Others, meanwhile, argue that incremental reforms have occurred.

Indo Sino Relations are strong- higher diplomatic ties

Sino Indian Cooperation is increasing in the squo and relations aren’t zero sum

Maini 16 — Tridivesh Maini, Tridivesh Singh Maini is a New Delhi based Policy Analyst. He is a senior research associate with The Jindal School of International Affair, 3-13-2016 ("What the US Gets Wrong About India's Relationship With China," Diplomat, 3-13-2016, Available Online at http://thediplomat.com/2016/03/what-the-us-gets-wrong-about-indias-relationship-with-china/, Accessed 7-25-2016, Schloss)

The India-China relationship is a far more complex and multi-layered one than many U.S. analysts realize. Both countries are trying to find common ground in a number of areas. It was surprising to discover that the views of many U.S. analysts mirror skeptics in the strategic community in India. Both tend to view the India-China relationship solely from the prism of security issues and territorial disputes while ignoring key state-level economic ties. I met off-the-record with about 40 strategic analysts and policymakers in Washington, D.C., during a SAV visiting fellowship at the Stimson Center. Some Americans, I found, had a good grasp of South Asian politics, while others were way off the mark. Perhaps the greatest misconception I came across in D.C. concerns the India-China relationship. Most conversations focused on the contentious aspects of the relationship, and ignored an unnoticed transformation taking place between Beijing and Delhi. If Americans fail to recognize the nuances in the relationship between China and India, their Asia policy is bound to be heavy-handed and Washington could lose an opportunity to shape regional politics in a positive way. I found that there are a handful of reasons why U.S. analysts are out of sync with the changes taking place in the Beijing-New Delhi relationship. First, a focus on hard security issues and territorial disputes detracts from serious analysis of the India-China economic relationship and progress in other areas. While there are certainly major divergences in the strategic sphere apart from territorial disputes between the two countries, the strongest stress on the relationship does relate to China’s inroads into South Asia. Many strategic analysts in India believe that China has designs of encircling India; they often cite the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to buttress this point. India’s increasing role in Southeast Asia, specifically in the South China Sea, also puts pressure on the relationship. One clear instance of this is the decision of Vietnam to award exploration projects to India’s state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Company in the South China Sea, an action which China has raised objections to time and again. In May 2015, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman categorically stated that “Any oil and gas exploration work should get approval first from China.” Meanwhile, New Delhi and Washington have found common ground on both strategic and economic issues. However, this does not necessitate a skeptical view of the New Delhi-Beijing relationship’s potential. Beijing and Washington have dissonance on many strategic issues, but still share a robust economic relationship. Neither India nor the United States should look at Sino-Indian relations as a zero-sum game. Former Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao wisely stated that the world is big enough for both India and China to grow. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has emphasized that India and China will need to work jointly in the 21st century. China and India both understand the need for connectivity. In this context, both countries seem to have made some progress on the Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar (BCIM) Corridor, an important component of China’s One Belt, One Road project. A number of U.S. analysts told me that India should focus on the BCIM Corridor instead of worrying over China’s investment in Pakistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Efforts are also being made to increase connectivity between both countries by increasing the number of flights. In the economic sphere, there is much room for improvement between New Delhi and Beijing. The balance of trade is presently skewed in favor of China. For the period April 2015-January 2016, India’s trade deficit was $44.7 billion, with India’s exports to China standing at a mere $7.56 billion while imports stood at $52.26 billion. For 2014-2015, the trade deficit for New Delhi was estimated at $48.48 billion. However, Chinese investments in India are increasing. India-China relations are no longer restricted to New Delhi and Beijing; interactions between the two countries’ states and provinces are also increasing. India is seeking to reach out to Chinese provinces with whom it did not have links previously. Increasing ties between Indian states and Chinese provinces enriches and supports high-level diplomatic ties. Already, a number of Indian chief ministers have visited China. During Modi’s visit last year to China, an annual State and Provincial Leaders forum was inaugurated. Speaking at the launch, the Indian prime minister made a significant point: A number of decisions can be taken quickly by the State governments. These interactions also make the State governments more sensitive and aware of the international dynamics and requirements. Liberalizing visa regimes will also help strengthen people-to-people contacts and trade. India has bolstered the relationship by beginning an e-visa facility for Chinese citizens. This improvement is evident in the increase in number of tourists arriving in India on e-visas, which has gone from a little over 2,700 in October 2014 to 56,477 in October 2015. It is important for members of the strategic community and the government in the United States who study India to interact with analysts outside Delhi. It is also critical to understand the increasing links between a number of state governments in India and China. Finally, U.S. and Indian analysts alike will benefit from realizing that there is no contradiction between India strengthening its ties with the United States while also keeping a reasonable and open relationship with China.

US-India relations high now – bilateral cooperation has brought investment and cooperation in tech, security, and other areas.

Saurabh 15 — Punit Saurabh, senior faculty member at International Centre for Entrepreneurship & Career Development and researcher in the domain of technology innovation management and International relations and has handled government innovation programs in India in the past, 2015 (“Opinion: India and U.S. Grow Closer Against a Backdrop of An Expansionist China,” USNI news, https://news.usni.org/2015/06/15/opinion-india-and-u-s-grow-closer-against-a-backdrop-of-an-expansionist-china, accessed 7/15/16) WP

Today, India-U.S. bilateral cooperation is broad-based, covering trade and investment, defense and security, education, science and technology, cyber security, high-technology and civil nuclear energy. Both nations enjoy vibrant people-to-people contact and support cutting across the political spectrum, which helps stimulate the relationship even further. The bond of democracy is the largest similarity the nations share. The mutual visits by the heads of state of both the nations have given a considerable boost to the existing bond of friendship existing between them. Since the exchange of visits of Indian Prime Minister Modi and President Obama’s India visit in 2014 and 2015, a sustained momentum to the bilateral relations between the nations has been provided. The last visit of Modi, in September 2014, had several visible outcomes with mechanisms to enhance trade and investment, particularly in infrastructure; new modalities to implement cooperation in energy, including nuclear and renewable energy; new approaches to defense trade, security and counter-terrorism collaboration; and new areas of cooperation between India and the United States in third countries.

Relations high now – deals and strong relations prove.

The United States in the past 15 years has taken unprecedented measures to close the gap with India. U.S. ties with India — after a brief lull during the nuclear tests of 1998 and an ensuing sanction — have become more matured. The United States and India both see it as a realignment of the new world order where both nations are destined to gain immensely because of their shared democratic heritage, a large wealthy and powerful Indian-American population and an emerging market. For India, the United States is the land of immense opportunity and business, knowledge and energy. India’s strategic needs are increasingly being fulfilled not by a “bygone Russia” but an “understanding America.” Within the past 12 years the United States has sold more than $12 billion worth of military equipment to India overtaking Russia as the largest defense supplier. And it seems that India needs more of it for sure. American business interests, followed by investments, have grown yet there is a tremendous scope for growth as it is nowhere close to the Sino-India trade. The current visit of U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter to India was important as it laid the groundwork for a strong India–U.S. strategic partnership. Carter’s visit to Vishakhapatnam, the strategic port housing the naval fleet to counter Chinese intrusions and home base of the upcoming aircraft carrier Vikrant is testimony to the growing bonhomie between both nations. India and the United States are likely to ink a $3 billion defense deal for 22 Boeing Apache and 15 Chinook helicopters. India is likely to order three additional Boeing C -17 Globemasters to add to its existing transport fleet of 10 C17s and 12 Lockheed Martin C-130 Js and 12 Boeing P-8I Poseidons along with scope for buying GE 414 Jet engines & commencement of talks for fitting of General Atomics’ EMALS for its proposed nuclear carrier Vishal. The United States and India have also signed a 10-year agreement for strategic cooperation keeping the rapidly changing geostrategic scenarios. To summarize, the close engagement between these nations is a good sign of the maturing relationship, but those signs will not go well for observers in China.

US-India relations at high point now

Ladwig 15 — Walter C. Ladwig III, Lecturer in International Relations, Department of War Studies at King’s College London, 2015 (“Relations between the US and India Look Better Today,” The Telegraph, January 24, Available Online at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/india/11366903/Relations-between-the-US-and-India-look-better-today.html, Accessed 07/20/16, JZ)

The idea that Barack Obama would be the first American president to take the salute from Indian soldiers as the chief guest at India’s Republic Day parade was unthinkable just twelve months ago. India typically uses the selection of the chief guest as a diplomatic signal that it wishes to cultivate deeper ties with a particular country, yet during his time in office Mr Obama repeatedly appeared to disregard India in favour of Pakistan or China. From hostility to honoured guest in under a year Last January Washington and New Delhi were locked in a bitter diplomatic row over an Indian diplomat’s alleged exploitation of her housekeeper that ultimately saw the resignation of the US ambassador to India. The bold decision by Narendra Modi, India's new prime minister, to have the American president accompany him in the reviewing stand suggests that not only has he overcome his past differences with the United States, but that there is a level of warmth in the bilateral relationship that has not existed since the high point of the George W. Bush years.

Relations are better than ever

Verma 15 — Richard Verma, American diplomat and the United States Ambassador to India, 2015 (“’The United States and India: A Relationship on the Move’ Remarks by Ambassador Richard Verma at IIT-Madras,” Embassy of the United States in New Delhi, India, July 13, Available Online at http://newdelhi.usembassy.gov/sr071315.html, Accessed 07-20-2016, PAM)

Back on the bilateral relationship, I’m as optimistic today about the promise and potential of our partnership with India as when I started here over six months ago. You may have seen the recent Pew Research poll showing President Obama’s approval around 74%, and with the US more generally with similarly strong numbers. I feel that same sentiment, and excitement for our renewed ties when I travel around India. I returned from Washington a couple of weeks ago, where I had an extensive round of consultations at the State Department, the White House, the Defense Department, with leaders of Congress and leaders of industry. To suggest that the interest in India remains strong would be an understatement – everyone wants to know what’s happening in the relationship and what’s coming up next. Even today in Washington, commemorating the 10 year anniversary of the civil nuclear deal, Vice President Biden will give a major address on US/India relations. We see no signs of the interest or enthusiasm dissipating. Our cooperation is no longer limited to South Asia and we are working in more areas than ever before. I now refer to our partnership as a “Strategic Plus”, with the “plus” indicating a broader geographic zone of cooperation and engagement in more areas than ever before.

Relations High — China Balancing

India-US relations are growing and uniting to check Chinese power

Nye 15 — Joseph S. Nye, Professor at Harvard University, 2015 (“What’s the future of US-India relations,” World Economic Forumn, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/08/whats-the-future-of-us-india-relations/, August 11th, accessed 7/15/16) WP

India is unlikely to develop the power to become a global challenger to the US in the first half of this century. Indeed, even in terms of soft power, a recent study by the Portland Consultancy in London placed India outside the top 30 countries. China ranked 30th, and the US came in third, behind the United Kingdom and Germany. Nonetheless, India has considerable assets that already affect the balance of power in Asia. While India and China signed agreements in 1993 and 1996 that promised a peaceful settlement of the border dispute that led them to war in l962, the issue has heated up again, following Chinese actions in recent years. India and China are fellow members of the BRICS (along with Brazil, Russia, and South Africa). But cooperation within that caucus is limited. While Indian officials are often discreet in public about relations with China, and wisely want bilateral trade and investment to grow, their security concerns remain acute. As part of the group of Asian countries that will tend to balance China, India has already begun to strengthen its diplomatic relations with Japan. It would be a mistake to cast the prospects for an improved US-India relationship solely in terms of China’s rising power. Indian economic success is an American interest on its own. So is the open approach taken by India and Brazil on issues such as governance of the Internet, at a time when Russia and China are seeking more authoritarian control. No one should expect an Indian-American alliance any time soon, given historical Indian public opinion. But one can predict a relationship in the coming years that will be both sui generis and stronger.

US-India relations high because of Asian rebalance

Indian Express 16 — (“India-US military relationship closer than ever: Ashton Carter,” Ashton Carter is the US Secretary of Defense, http://indianexpress.com/article/world/world-news/india-us-military-relationship-closer-than-ever-ashton-carter-2865232/) aj

Indo-US military ties are closer than ever as America’s re-balance policy in the strategic Asia Pacific region is complimenting India’s Act East policy, Defence Secretary Ashton Carter said today as he praised India for helping strengthen Vietnam’s military capabilities. “In the closer than ever US-India military relationship which – thanks to America’s strategic and technological handshakes, with America’s re-balance shaking hands with India’s Act East policy and the Defence Technology and Trade Initiative grasping the hand of Prime Minister Modi’s ‘Make in India’ programme – includes more frequent exercises and more mutual defence co-development and co-production,” Carter told a Washington audience. In his address to the Centre for New American Security – a top US think-tank – Carter said that the Asia-Pacific security network is coming together in three key ways. “First, some pioneering trilateral mechanisms are bringing together like-minded allies and partners to maximise individual contributions and connect nations that previously worked together only bilaterally,” he said. For example, the US-Japan-Republic of Korea trilateral partnership helps us coordinate responses to North Korean nuclear and missile provocations. “And our three nations will conduct a trilateral ballistic missile warning exercise later this month,” he added. “And through joint activities like the aforementioned MALABAR Exercise, the US-Japan-India trilateral relationship is starting to provide real, practical security cooperation that spans the entire region from the Indian Ocean to the Western Pacific,” Carter said. Second – and beyond relationships involving the United States – many countries within the Asia-Pacific are coming together on their own in bilateral and trilateral mechanisms, he noted. “For example, India is increasing its training with Vietnam’s military and coast guard on their common platforms. And the Japan-Australia-India trilateral meeting last year was a welcome development and addition to the region’s security network,” Carter said. “And third, and even more broadly, all of our nations are creating a networked, multilateral regional security architecture – from one end of the region to the other – through the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting-Plus,” he said, adding that later this year he would host an informal defence ministers dialogue in Hawaii with all of the ASEAN countries. Carter said the Asia-Pacific security network is not aimed at any particular country. “Although we have disagreements with China, especially over its destabilising behaviour in the South China Sea, we’re committed to working with them and to persuading them to avoid self-isolation,” he said.

Relations High — Modi Visit

US India relations high now—Modi visit resolves residual barriers

Ranade 16 — Jayadeva Ranade, former Additional Secretary in the Cabinet Secretariat, Government of India, current President of the Centre for China Analysis and Strategy, 2016.(“PM Modi’s U.S. Visit Will Give Needed Momentum to India-U.S. Relations,” Sunday Guardian Live, June 5^th, Available Online at http://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/5137-pm-modi-s-us-visit-will-give-needed-momentum-india-us-relations, Accessed 07-20-2016,aqp)

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming 2-day visit to the United States from 7 June 2016, comes at the right time. The hallmark of the foreign policy initiatives since the time Modi took over as Prime Minister is that they have been deft and deliberate. Economic and strategic considerations have been at the centre of each of the initiatives. The upcoming visit to the US is no different.

Though the 50-hour trip has been labelled a “working visit”, the US has given it flourishes akin to that of a state visit. Modi is scheduled to stay at Blair House where state guests are lodged. The day he arrives Modi will have a one-on-one meeting with US President Obama followed by a luncheon hosted by the US President. The next day Prime Minister Modi will address a joint meeting of the US Congress and Senate, which will be followed by a luncheon hosted by the Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan. The Senate and House Foreign Relations Committees will host a reception for Modi that evening.

Addressing the 114th US Congress will afford Prime Minister Modi an opportunity to influence policy makers, impress upon them the value of good Indo-US ties, and give a push to Indo-US relations. This is especially important at this time when China and Pakistan are openly colluding to frustrate India’s efforts to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). By a seemingly strange coincidence, just days prior to Modi’s arrival in Washington some elements in the US have sought to chastise India for alleged human rights violations, “slavery” etc. A hearing of the US Congressional Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission is also scheduled for the day of the Obama-Modi meeting in Washington. Modi will be the sixth Indian Prime Minister to address a joint meeting of the US Congress. The last time an Indian Prime Minister addressed the US Congress was in 2005 and before that in 2000.

Modi’s visit to the US serves the interests of both, US President Barack Obama and Indian Prime Minister Modi. For Obama, the visit will punctuate an otherwise dull season before the US gets fully enmeshed in the Presidential elections. It might lift his popularity ratings. It will help him move the focus to Asia and possibly leave behind as his legacy a lasting relationship that contributes to shaping a geopolitical environment more conducive to world peace. The various agreements on the anvil, as well as high-level discussions to facilitate India’s admission to the NSG, will smoothen the path for US companies wanting to invest in India including in the nuclear power sector.

Certainly there are lots of benefits for India too. With the visit, Modi will consolidate on existing goodwill — Obama and Modi have met seven times since Modi assumed office as Prime Minister two years ago — to build an enduring relationship that benefits both countries. The visit will give a momentum to the relationship, which has begun to show signs of plateauing, and thus keep it on the agenda of the next incoming US administration. There is already bipartisan consensus on the need for good Indo-US ties.

India-US relations making large strides – prefer our evidence, it takes into account Modi’s recent visits

Moore 6/9 Evan Moore, writer at the Foreign Policy Initiative, 2016 (“FPI BULLETIN: MODI’S VISIT AND THE FUTURE OF U.S.-INDIA RELATIONS,” The Foreign Policy Initiative, http://www.foreignpolicyi.org/content/fpi-bulletin-modi%E2%80%99s-visit-and-future-us-india-relations, June 9th, accessed 7/21/16) WP

Indian Prime Minister Narenda Modi’s visit in Washington this week marks another step forward in the growing strategic and economic ties between India and the United States. For the past two decades, leaders from the political right and left in both countries have established a flourishing partnership, one rooted in their shared democratic identities and security interests. This progress is all the more remarkable because of the legacy of India’s non-aligned foreign policy during the Cold War. If America and India fully realize the promise of their shared vision, then the future of security and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region will be much stronger. Growing Economic, Security Ties In recent years, economic and security ties between India and the United States have dramatically deepened. As Nisha Desai Biswal, the Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, recently reported to Congress, bilateral trade in goods and services has grown from $60 billion in 2009 to over $107 billion in 2015. U.S. exports to India increased by nearly 50 percent over the same period. Also, Indian foreign direct investment (FDI) in the United States nearly tripled between 2009 and 2014—making it the fourth-fastest growing source of FDI into the United States—and U.S. FDI in India increased by nearly 30 percent over the same period. Overall, India is America’s 10th-largest trading partner, with more than $65 billion traded in goods. The military relationship between America and India is also developing. Biswal reports that India now conducts more military exercises with the United States than with any of the other 23 countries that it holds bilateral exercises with, and these are becoming increasingly complex. Likewise, the United States has become one of India’s top defense suppliers, now totaling as much as $14 billion in sales. This includes C-130 and C-17 transport planes, Poseidon (P-8) maritime reconnaissance aircraft, and Apache attack and Chinook heavy-lift helicopters. The United States and India have also agreed in principle to a deal that would allow their armed forces to use each other’s bases for replenishment and repair. As Biswal noted, “These deals not only increase interoperability between our armed forces, they also help buttress the growing economic ties through partnership and cooperation between our nations.” On Tuesday, President Obama designated India a Major Defense Partner, which will allow India license-free access to a wide range of dual-use technologies. President Obama and Prime Minister Modi also succeeded in moving forward on one of the most contentious aspects of the Washington-New Delhi relationship: the sale of nuclear reactors and fuel to India. Even though the United States and India approved a landmark nuclear cooperation agreement in 2008, it was never fully implemented because U.S. companies feared that they would be held fully liable in the event of a disaster. But in the President’s January 2015 visit to India, Obama and Modi declared “a breakthrough understanding on two issues that were holding up our ability to advance our civil nuclear cooperation,” and yesterday that achievement was fulfilled when the United States announced that work would begin on six Indian nuclear reactors to be built by the U.S. company Westinghouse.

Relations High — Climate Coop

US and India cooperating on climate change now.

Ayres 16 — Alyssa Ayres, senior fellow and expert of India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, former US deputy assistant secretary of state for South Asia, 2016 (“This Will Be Obama’s Legacy to U.S.-India Relations,” Fortune, June 9, Available Online at http://fortune.com/2016/06/09/narendra-modi-visit-to-us/, Accessed 07/21/16, JZ)

Among other initiatives, officials this week announced efforts to finance clean energy projects, including plans for both India and the U.S. to raise up to $400 million to deliver renewable energy to “up to 1 million households by 2020. A new “U.S.-India Clean Energy Hub” will serve as a single-window to organize renewable energy investment to India. The U.S. and India also agreed to establish the “U.S.-India Catalytic Solar Finance Program,” which is expected to attract private investments of up to $1 billion for projects on a smaller scale. Reference to technical support for a rooftop solar initiative in India, and a “Greening the Grid” initiative all appear in the joint statement. A $30 million public-private smart grid initiative will support research. Taken together, these efforts flow directly from the bilateral clean energy cooperation launched in 2009, at the start of President Obama’s first term. The Partnership to Advance Clean Energy (PACE), as the initiative is known, has to date secured more than $2.5 billion in public and private investment. The new announcements add another $1.4 billion to that total. PACE has developed a joint clean energy research consortium drawing on the scientific talents of both countries, and it has also supported targeted efforts (green buildings, smart grids) to deploy clean energy where it can make a difference.

US-India relations high now — climate cooperation.

Earlier this week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India visited President Obama, marking his second visit to the White House in two years. Like his two immediate predecessors, Obama has made special efforts to expand ties with India. Against the backdrop of a tough external environment— Iraq’s chaos, a truculent Russia, China’s increased assertiveness, unending conflict in Afghanistan—the U.S.-India relationship stands out as a rare bright spot, one that has spanned Democratic and Republican administrations alike. Former president Bill Clinton opened the door to India in 2000 after decades of estrangement. And after him, George W. Bush recognized India’s strategic importance, and pushed through a civil-nuclear deal that permitted nuclear energy cooperation with India and brought the country inside the global nonproliferation tent. With the conclusion of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s three-day visit to Washington yesterday, one thing is clear: Obama’s support for nurturing ties to India will be marked by his work with one of the world’s largest industrializing economies to curb climate change and support clean energy. This is not to suggest that the Obama administration has not advanced ties in other areas—including defense, counterterrorism, and homeland security—but to point out new ground covered during his presidency. From the beginning to the end of his two terms in office, Obama has made a bet on clean energy, and in Modi’s India he has found an enthusiastic partner. President Obama has expanded clean energy cooperation with India more than any previous U.S. administration. This will be his defining legacy for the burgeoning U.S. relationship with India.

A2: Uniqueness Overwhelms

US-India ties are strengthening, but remain fragile

Dhume 16 — Sadanand Dhume, master's degree in international relations from Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a non-profit, non-partisan public policy research organization based in Washington, DC, 2016 (“U.S.-India Relations: Balancing Progress and Managing Expectations,” AEI, May 24 , Available Online at https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Dhume.SFRCTestimony.5.24.pdf, Accessed 07-15-16, PAM)

Despite occasional hiccups, U.S.-India ties have witnessed a steady upward trajectory since the late 1990s. India conducts more military exercises with the U.S. than with any other country. Over the past 10 years, total U.S. defense sales to India have grown from $300 million to approximately $14 billion. India now has 10 heavy lift C-17s, the largest fleet outside the U.S. Military exercises are also growing in complexity. Last year, Japan joined the U.S.-India Malabar naval exercises as a permanent member. Since 2012, India has also participated in PACOM’s Rim of the Pacific Exercise (RIMPAC), the world’s largest international maritime warfare exercise. Thanks in large part to the efforts of Defense Secretary Ashton Carter, the Defense Technology and Trade initiative also shows promise as the two countries move toward co-production and co-development on six projects spanning protective clothing for soldiers to aircraft carriers. In fighting terrorism, too, the U.S. and India face common challenges. But as pluralistic societies they also share experiences of managing the threat. Although it houses the second largest Muslim population in the world, India shows relatively few signs of homegrown radicalization. Barely a few dozen Indian Muslims have signed up to fight for the Islamic State, compared with several thousand from Western Europe. 2 Economic relations have deepened too, albeit from a modest base. Between 2002 and 2015, bilateral trade in goods and services quintupled from $21 billion to $107 billion. Since 2004, U.S. FDI stock in India has more than tripled from $8 billion to $28 billion. According to the Confederation of Indian Industry, 100 Indian companies have invested $15 billion in 35 U.S. states, creating 91,000 jobs. Indian students add $3.6 billion to the U.S. economy each year. At the same time, the three-million-strong Indian-American population continues to act as a bridge between the two countries. Nonetheless, neither country should take this continued progress for granted. For one, recent gains notwithstanding, trade ties remain far below potential. With an annual output of $2.1 trillion, India is the seventh largest economy in the world. In purchasing power parity terms it is even larger—a $8 trillion economy, or the world’s third largest. Yet, in 2015, with trade in goods of $66.7 billion, India was only the U.S.’s tenth largest trading partner in goods, ranked below smaller economies such as Taiwan and South Korea. Without a deeper trade relationship, and an India more deeply integrated into the global economy, the relationship risks remaining unsustainably lopsided toward shared geopolitical and security concerns. The U.S. should also recognize that India’s history and domestic politics preclude it from becoming a formal U.S. ally such as Japan or South Korea. Keeping expectations sober will ensure that ties remain on even keel rather than careening between unrealistic ambition and ensuing disappointment. At its heart, the U.S. bet on India represents the hope that a large democratic, pluralistic country, rooted in common law traditions, and home to an Englishspeaking elite, will succeed in Asia. At the same time, however, U.S. interest in India’s future carries implicit expectations: of economic reforms and a continued adherence to democratic values including pluralism, freedom of speech and human rights. In the absence of a formal alliance, the robustness of India’s economy, strength of its military and quality of its democracy naturally become proxies for the health of the U.S.-India relationship, and the amount of policy attention New Delhi can sustainably attract from Washington. For this relationship to fulfill its potential, the U.S. ought to continue to take the long view, as it has during much of the past two decades, by playing a part in helping India fulfill its own aspirations. At the same time, India must recognize that the sustainability of U.S. commitment to its rise rests in large part on the success of the so-called “India model.” This will require not just continued strategic engagement with the U.S., but also continued reforms to make India a more competitive economy.

US-India relations growing, but still fragile

Economist 16 — Economist, 2016 (“A suitable boy?,” The Economist, April 16, Available Online at http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2015/01/20-us-india-relationship-and-china-madan, Accessed 07-15-2016, PAM)

THEY seem such a promising pair, India and America. The two biggest and noisiest democracies are linked by language and blood: 125m Indians speak English, and over 3m Americans claim Indian descent. They share a belief in the rule of law and (most of the time) in free enterprise, as well as common regional concerns over such things as fighting Islamist extremism and accommodating the rise of China. But as much as a match of American wealth and know-how with Indian brawn and drive would make sense, and ought to bolster global security, Indian pride and American prejudice have repeatedly got in the way. Yet with regional stars realigning, Indian pride has grown less prickly and American prejudice less smug. “Pivoting” to Asia during Barack Obama’s presidency, America has sought new friendships just as India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, finds it lacks the punch to back his bigger ambitions for India on the wider stage. There will be no flashy wedding between the two in the near future. But what is emerging is a quiet, cautious meeting of mutual interests. American officials call it a strategic handshake, Indian ones a strategic partnership. Neither would utter the word “alliance”, but if the relationship continues to thicken, that is what conceivably might take shape somewhere down the road.

India-US relations high and successful now, but they’re fragile

Leaf 14 — Paul Leaf, writer at The National Interest, 2014 (“With China on the Rise, America Must Woo India” The National Interest, http://nationalinterest.org/feature/china-the-rise-america-must-woo-india-11275 , Septermber 14th, accessed 7/19/16) WP

The competition between the United States, Japan and China is heating up. All three countries are aiming to woo India—a country whose uncommitted partnership will help to define Asia’s balance of power. At meetings on September 29 and September 30 between President Barack Obama and Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, Washington must reinvigorate the countries’ recently strained ties, make up ground lost to Beijing in courting New Delhi, and supplement Tokyo’s progress in drawing New Delhi closer. There are many motivations for wooing India. It has the world’s second largest population and is projected to surpass China’s by 2028. As measured by GDP, India’s economy is the third largest in Asia. New Delhi fields the world’s second largest army, its military budget exceeds $38 billion (up 12 percent over the previous year), it is expected to become the world’s fourth largest defense spender by 2020, and it has been the world’s top arms importer since 2010. India is enhancing its power-projection capabilities, including by developing long-range nuclear missiles and manufacturing indigenous nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers. The country shares a 2,500-mile border with China and sits near critical chokepoints in the Indian Ocean, through which over 80 percent of the world’s seaborne oil passes, along with almost one third of global trade. Given its strength and location, India can shape Asia’s balance of power in favor of or against China, depending on whether it deepens its cooperation with the United States and China’s competitors. While in many respects, India is a natural U.S. ally, its partnership should not be assumed. These democracies’ overlapping interests include avoiding a hostile Chinese rise, maintaining open sea-lanes to meet their energy needs and combatting terrorism. But New Delhi’s history of nonalignment dampens its willingness to militarily partner with other countries. After all, India seeks favorable relations with all countries to maximize its benefits from each, and Modi came to office promising significant economic development after India’s average annual growth dipped from approximately 9 percent for over seven years to under 5 percent since 2012. Given doubts about U.S. security commitments in Asia and India’s deep economic ties to China (which is New Delhi’s largest trade partner and a growing investment source), these preferences are amplified vis-à-vis anti-China coalitions. Indeed, during the recent summit between Modi and Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe, the leaders struck economic deals, but failed to finalize pending security agreements. Perhaps Modi sought to encourage Chinese investment in his country and avoid upsetting Chinese president Xi Jinping before his scheduled India visit later this month.

Relations are improving but only if the US stays the course.

Adam 15 — Sunil Adam, Editor The India Times, 2015 (“A Conversation With Ambassador Arun K. Singh On U.S.-India Relations,” Huffington Post, July 24, Available Online at http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sunil-adam/a-conversation-with-ambas_b_7867708.html Accessed 07-18-2016, PAM) *quoting ambassador Arun K. Singh*

It may not be the Treaty of Versailles, or even the Camp David Accord, but on the 10th anniversary of its signing this month, the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Initiative has been heralded as a transformative development that will determine the contours of the emerging international order. Diplomats, policy makers and pundits on both sides gathered at several events in the nation’s capital to describe in near phantasmagorical terms the unfolding implications of the agreement, not only for U.S.-India relations, but also for the efforts of the two largest democracies in promoting global security and prosperity, combating climate change, unleashing technological advances on earth and outer space. Even Vice President Joe Biden pitched in at the commemorative conference jointly hosted by The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Confederation of Indian Industry in Washington, D.C., where he asserted the nuclear deal helped transform “the bilateral relationship into a global partnership based on shared values, interests, responsibilities. “All of these will go to shape the next century if we stay the course,” he declared. The operative word, of course, is “if.” There is, however, no disputing the fact that over the last decade the U.S.-India relations have improved exponentially, bearing fruit the efforts of the past three American administrations and three Indian governments dating back to the late 1990s. Credit is due in large part to the George W. Bush administration, which conceptualized the rationale for turning around U.S. relations with India.

US-India relations headed in the right direction but India is still hesitant

Kumar 16 — Sumit Kumar, ICSSR Doctoral Fellow at the UGC Centre for Southern Asian Studies, Pondicherry Central University, M.Phil, International Relations, Pondicherry Central University, 2016. (“How Modi Changed the India–US Relationship,” East Asia Forum, May 10^th, Available Online at http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/05/10/how-modi-changed-the-india-us-relationship/, Accessed 07-20-2016, aqp)

The Modi government has also pursued three crucial bilateral agreements — the Logistic Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMA), the Communication and Information Security Memorandum (CISMOA) and the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA). The previous UPA government opposed these three agreements as they argued that they would undermine India’s strategic autonomy and its policy of nonalignment. But in light of emerging security threats, the Modi government has agreed in principle to all three.

LEMA will allow both countries to access fuel and supplies from each other’s bases, making it easier to coordinate military activities. The agreement would help India in carrying out operations in the Indian Ocean and expanding its maritime reach in the Asia Pacific.

CISMOA will enable the countries to share confidential intelligence in both peacetime and war using advanced encryption technology. BECA would provide India with topographical and aeronautical data as well as products aiding navigation and targeting.

Some concerns have been raised about the possible downsides of signing these agreements. For instance, CISMOA would enable the United States to listen to highly confidential defence conversations within India. There are also fears that under LEMA the United States would pressure India into allotting portions of its land bases for exclusive military use.

It is for these reasons that India has only agreed to sign these agreements in principle. The Modi government has asked the United States to modify the agreements so that India’s security and sovereignty are not compromised. Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar has made it clear that LEMA does not mention the stationing of American troops on Indian soil. India’s apprehension implies that, while it seeks close defence ties with the United States, the Indian government does not want to unnecessarily draw itself into a tussle between the United States and China.

With the introduction of the US–India Defence Technology and Partnership Act this March and an expected visit by Modi to Washington to address a joint session of the US Congress, the future of the bilateral relationship looks bright. One hopes that this kind of engagement will continue, forging the way for a stronger India–US relationship.

A2: “India Says No”

Coop happening now, and India will coop in the future

Burns 15 — R. Nicholas Burns (born January 28, 1956) is a university professor, columnist, lecturer and former American diplomat. He is currently Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Politics at Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government and a member of the Board of Directors of the school's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. At the Harvard Kennedy School, he is Director of The Future of Diplomacy Project and Faculty Chair for the programs on the Middle East and India and South Asia. Friends Without Benefits Is the U.S.-Indian Relationship Built to Last? January/February 2015 http://www.cfr.org/india/friends-without-benefits/p35896 @yangtri 7/20/16

But I don’t agree with Boggs when he concludes that the current Indian leadership sees the United States as a “competitor” and that there is little real strategic value in the U.S.-Indian relationship. In fact, there have been many positive changes in relations during the Bush and Obama administrations. Washington and New Delhi have both supported the Afghan government against the Taliban, and India values the U.S. military role in Afghanistan so much that its real worry is that the United States will leave too soon. As victims of Islamist terrorism, the two countries have become close partners on homeland security. Their defense ties continue to broaden and deepen. And both share a concern about China’s newly aggressive behavior in the East China and South China seas. These shared concerns with India have produced concrete benefits for the United States.  In many ways, China is at the center of the new strategic cooperation between the United States and India. Both Washington and New Delhi will partner with China on trade, investment, and climate change. But the United States and India will also compete with China for military power in the region. As a result, the United States and India will continue to build closer security ties, often in partnership with Japan, due to a basic, common self-interest: balancing China’s increasing power  in Asia.  I agree with Boggs that the new Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, should articulate more clearly his aims for the U.S.-Indian relationship. But Boggs is on thin ice when he suggests that Modi will pursue a Hindu nationalist vision of an “undivided India” encompassing most of the countries of the region. There is scant evidence for that very serious charge.  Boggs appears to see India as an unreliable partner. Washington will surely continue to have its share of disagreements with New Delhi. But I see a glass half full, given all that has changed for the better under Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush in Washington’s growing, sometimes frustrating, but undeniably strengthening strategic partnership with India.

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