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The insider threat is rising Poole 4/8 – Searle Freedom Trust Transportation Fellow, Director of Transportation Policy at the Reason Foundation (Robert Poole, 4/8/15, “Airport Policy and Security News #105,” http://reason.org/news/show/airport-policy-security-news-105#e)//twemchen First came last December's exposure of a gun-smuggling operation under which two Delta employees at Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport smuggled guns onto airliners. That was followed in March by an NBC-DFW investigation that revealed that more than 1,400 airport worker security badges at Hartsfield-Jackson were missing and unaccounted for. Both incidents have led to congressional concerns, and policy changes are likely. Hartsfield-Jackson general manager Miguel Southwell told a congressional hearing in January that he intended to move toward full airport-employee screening, as both Miami and Orlando did following similar employee smuggling incidents. CNN reported in February that the Atlanta airport had begun screening employee bags before letting them enter secure areas and closing off many of the 70 access points to secure areas outside the terminals. Airport spokesman Reese McCranie told CNN that this was the start of a "phased-in approach to get to full employee screening." The airport plans to get down to just 10 entry points. NBC News/Chicago reported on March 18th that TSA may be moving to mandate airport employee screening. It quoted TSA's acting deputy administrator, Mark Hatfield, saying that "TSA is conducting an insider threat analysis to identify potential indicators of criminality or threats to aviation that could provide insight into new training operations, or methods of screening and vetting employees." Airport Business (Feb./March 2015) reported that about 960,000 employees (of airlines, airports, vendors, concessionaires, etc.) have access to secure areas via about 18,000 access points at airports with TSA screening It also cited TSA estimates that it provided 257,979 hours of random employee screening nationwide last year. That sounds like a lot, but it's only 707 hours a day spread over some 450 airports—less than 2 hours per day per airport. - See more at: http://reason.org/news/show/airport-policy-security-news-105#e 73 terrorists were literally employed by the TSA cause their hiring practices are terrible Abdullah 15 – MSNBC (Halimah Abdullah, 6/8/15, “TSA Fails to ID 73 Airport Employees With Links to Terrorism,” http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/tsa-fails-identify-73-employees-terror-watch-lists-n371601)//twemchen A new Department of Homeland Security Inspector General report found that the Transportation Security Administration failed to identify 73 aviation employees with active clearance badges with links to terrorism. 2ac – terrorism – airport terror – aq Brown 15 – (Pamela Brown, 1/13/15, “New terror threat increases U.S. airport security,” http://wwlp.com/2015/01/13/new-terror-threat-increases-u-s-airport-security/)//twemchen The Department of Homeland Security is making changes after a renewed push by Al Qaeda in Yemen to activate extremists living in the U.S. They’re asking them to create new bombs, with the goal of bringing down an airplane or wreaking havoc at the airport Amid renewed fears of hard-to-detect bombs being smuggled onto commercial flights, the U.S. is expanding random security checks of passengers in U.S. airports once they’ve already made it through airport security. Those second checks at the gate could include an additional bag search, passenger patdowns, and hand swabs for traces of explosives. Terrorism Analyst Paul Cruikshank says, “One part is the potential threat to airplanes, the other part is the threat to passengers who are queuing up in a security line, and someone is trying to bring a bomb and blow people up in the security lines.” The stepped up measures are partly in response to Al Qaeda, in the Arabian Peninsula’s propaganda magazine ‘Inspire’, laying out a new recipe to concoct non-metallic bombs with simple household products. U.S. government officials say airport body scanners can normally catch these hard to detect explosives, but the advanced technology is not available in some smaller U.S. airports. Cruikshank says, “AQAP says even if it does not get through airport security, enough fuss will be made about people attempting to do this that it will spread terror in the west, and their aims will be achieved.” 2ac – terrorism – airport terror – aqap AQAP will attack the homeland – effective security is essential Green 15 Green, 15 [J.J., is the National Security Correspondent at WTOP., Washington’s Top News, “Al-Qaida threatens to use ‘undetectable’ bombs against U.S.”, 1/5/15, http://wtop.com/national-security/2015/01/al-qaida-threatens-use-undetectable-bombs-u-s/, 6/29/15]JRO Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula is warning Americans that they’ve been working long and hard on a new tool to attack the U.S. In the latest issue of the terror group’s Inspire electronic magazine, an individual called the AQ Chef was quoted as saying they developed a bomb in 2009, but “the brothers in the external operation committee did not give us the green light until recently.” Hinting at al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula’s dedication to building undetectable bombs, he said in the winter 2014 edition of Inspire, released in late December, “they have developed other bombs that are more effective.” AQ Chef indicates that lessons learned from failures in past assassination attempts and plots to attack U.S. airplanes and buildings have fed the development of a new generation of what it calls “undetectable” bombs. In “The Hidden Bomb,” a 20-page section of the magazine, the writer goes into painstaking detail about how to build and test such a bomb: “For several months, we conducted a number of experiments. As a result we came up with these simple materials that are readily available around the globe, even inside America. We spared no effort in simplifying the idea in such we made it ‘another meal prepared in the kitchen’ so that every determined Muslim can prepare.” The magazine’s editor, Yahya Ibrahim, in a different section of the magazine, also claimed the organization’s bomb-makers have been working on a recipe that is “something unique that can easily be prepared at home.” Reflecting the group’s urgent desire to disseminate the recipe, Ibrahim apologized to their supporters for taking nine months to produce the 13th edition — indicating that the work on the new bomb was the hold-up. Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, also known as AQAP, is viewed by security experts the world over as the pre-eminent architects of technologically advanced IEDs. The group boasts in the magazine about the nearly successful plot to bring down Northwest Airlines Flight 253 en route from Amsterdam to Detroit, Michigan, on Christmas Day 2009. Nigerian Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab tried to ignite a bomb concealed in his underwear, but the device failed. The group’s master bomb-maker, Ibrahim Al-Asiri, designed that explosive and another, a rectal bomb designed to kill Saudi Interior Minister Muhammad bin Naif, earlier in 2009. Naif survived, but the man carrying the bomb, Asiri’s own brother, was killed. Both men used bombs similar in design. Former TSA Administrator John Pistole, who left his position to return to private life on Dec. 31, told WTOP late last month, “What gives us greatest concern are the non-metallic improvised explosive devices (IEDs) that that can go through a metal detector.” That is precisely what AQAP bragged about in the latest edition of Inspire. The group claims to have defeated U.S. layered defenses designed to detect concealed explosives. In addition to a detailed explanation of some detection techniques, AQAP offers the readers suggested methods for defeating these defenses, saying, “any security system, be it human or mechanical, has weak points through which it can be breached as long as you know its details and mechanism.” Pistole explained that terrorists have spent years developing bombs that can slip through metal detectors, such as “substituting liquid explosives in sports drinks. They drilled out the bottom of the bottle, so the bottle was still intact, drained out the sports drink and then filled it with liquid explosives.” AQAP is betting a wave of lone jihadist attacks taking place worldwide will be sustained. So the organization is promoting a new strategy for attacking the West — developing individual extremists who act alone. Ibrahim said, “The new reality has flipped the coin of war. It has shifted America from an offensive position into a defensive one. We no longer hear them speaking of the successes or failures of the battle for the hearts and minds. … “Instead”, he said, “we find them acknowledging their incapability of preventing lone Jihad attacks on their soil.” But U.S. systems and officials have not remained stagnant during AQAP’s evolution. New detection methods to target non-metallic explosives are in place, and new tactics are being used to disconnect AQAP and other terrorist groups from potential recruits. Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson has been traveling to strategic areas of the country to deliver what he calls an alternate narrative to counter the message of violent extremism. “I want our reach to go as far as possible,” Johnson says. “If I go to eight major cities, it is possible to reach a large segment of the community that I’m trying to reach, but the alternate message is important.” 2ac – terrorism – airport terror – isis ISIS will attack LAX – FBI reports prove NM 15 – Newsmax (4/25/15, “FBI Investigating Possible US ISIS Plot,” http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/cnn-fbi-investigating-isis/2015/04/25/id/640759/)//twemchen The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is investigating a possible Islamic State-inspired terrorism plot in the United States, CNN reported on Saturday, quoting law enforcement officials. A Federal law enforcement official who asked not to be named said there was a known threat to Los Angeles International Airport, but did not say whether this was a new threat or was associated with Islamic State. CNN said the investigation started after intercepted communication and other intelligence information that led officials to believe that a plot could be under way. The network quoted an official as saying the plot focused on parts of California and that officials there had stepped up security. The Transportation Security Administration had also alerted local law enforcement agencies responsible for security around airports in the state although the possible threat was not necessarily related to aviation, CNN said. They’ll use thermite Biles 4/28 – staff writer at Homeland Security Today (Clay Biles, 4/28/15, “EXCLUSIVE: TSA's ISIS Threat Warning Reignites Controversy Over Thermite Incendiary Fear,” http://www.hstoday.us/focused-topics/surveillance-protection-detection/single-article-page/exclusive-tsa-s-isis-threat-warning-reignites-controversy-over-thermite-incendiary-fear.html)//twemchen Last week, a new Transportation Security Administration (TSA) warning indicated there’s a “possible” threat – a threat not necessarily aimed at aviation – from Islamic State (ISIS) jihadists. Although no specifics about the “threat” were given in TSA’s warning – which one current Federal Air Marshal said “went out to [air marshals] and TSA employees, but not other government agencies” – TSA stepped-up the use of its Visible Intermodal Prevention and Response (VIPR) teams at various airports around the country, with a concentration in California. In response to the unspecific warning Friday by TSA, concerns over terrorists’ use of thermite also resurfaced which TSA had expressed concern about in December. TSA’s warning also ignited concerns over training and guidance given to Federal Air Marshals about how to deal with a thermite incendiary. It all began in 2011, when the FBI’s Terrorist Explosive Device Analytical Center began testing thermite incendiary devices to assess how they could be used as a weapon against a passenger aircraft. Thermite is a pyrotechnic composition of metal powder, fuel and metal oxide that has been widely used in commercial and military applications which, when ignited, produces an exothermic reaction capable of melting steel. The thermite testing by the FBI led to the Bureau issuing the classified December 10, 2014 report, Threat Assessment of Viable Incendiary Devices to Passengers and Aircraft, which was forwarded to TSA. TSA’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis regurgitated in typical TSA fashion its own classified report six days later, which was subsequently distributed to Federal Air Marshal Service (FAMS) field offices across the nation. The 1-page TSA intelligence bulletin said, “The ignition of a thermite-based incendiary device on an aircraft at altitude could result in catastrophic damage and the death of every person on board,” adding, “These devices are easily assembled and concealable; current TSA screening procedures would likely not recognize thermite-based mixtures.” The bulletin said the “substances” to make homemade thermite “are easily accessible online or contained within widely available over-the-counter products,” and that “the thermite mixture, as well as the ignition source, can be concealed within items such as children's toys and water canteens --items that would not arouse suspicion as they pass through TSA security screening.” Although the original classified FBI report and analysis only proposed that the “possibility” existed that thermite could be used as a weapon against commercial aviation, it clearly stated intelligence “does not indicate any extremist interest to target aircraft.” However remote the possibility this threat may be, TSA admitted they likely couldn’t stop items containing the materials to make thermite past conventional screening methods and being introduced onto an aircraft. TSA also hasn’t provided any training to air marshals on how to identify a thermite “burn,” or even how to extinguish it. Instead of investing appropriate time to understand thermite reactions or questioning chemists on how to successfully deal with a thermite burn, TSA simply told their air marshal force in its bulletin that they should “recognize a thermite ignition, advise the captain immediately, ensure the individual(s) who ignited the device are rendered inoperable, contain the crowd while systematically evacuating the area of the burn, and address injuries.” Since the “experts” at TSA weren’t interested in questioning persons intimately familiar with thermite reactions, they would have better served air marshals and passengers by watching a YouTube video on the subject to determine whether it’s even possible passengers could realistically be “systematically” evacuated from “the area of the burn.” Unfortunately, for passengers, the ignition of thermite on an aircraft in-flight would be so intense, and its ensuing ignition so chaotic, that an air marshal could not reasonably be capable of performing all of the functions TSA requires of them – which are recommendations not based on reality. The TSA bulletin conceded that, “FAMs are trained to extinguish [any] flames immediately and by any means available,” and because of this, “FAMs may attempt to use a liquid-based firefighting agent, resulting in greater harm to the aircraft and its occupants.” One of the threats against a commercial aircraft that is taught to Federal Air Marshals is the threat of fire. At the air marshal academy, videos are shown to air marshal students which show how an in-flight fire can destroy an aircraft within 90 seconds at cruising altitude. Although aircraft seats and other flammable materials onboard passenger aircraft are treated with chemical fire retardants, an in-flight fire can quickly turn catastrophic. Despite the potential of this threat, no training is given to FAMs on how to control an in-flight fire beyond using a typical fire extinguisher. Once again, TSA has shown its immaturity through its inability to base its bulletin and FAMS training on reality. But, fortunately for TSA, the “possibility” of a thermite ignition onboard a commercial aircraft can be used to request more funding to buy more detection equipment and determine “solutions” in order to better train an already TSA-weary air marshal force. A current air marshal opined on background to Homeland Security Today that TSA is suffering from “a need to justify its existence, and a further need to find reasons to increase its budget.” The air marshal added, “it seemed like every time TSA was up for budgetary funding, we began doing more special mission coverage or VIPR missions.” The evidence seems to suggest TSA will continue feeding the US population with a fear campaign at every opportunity, however unfounded their messages may be. It becomes quickly apparent that TSA is suffering from the chronic symptoms of “budget-ISIS.” TSA said, “all air travelers are subject to a robust security system that employs multiple layers of security, both seen and unseen, including: intelligence gathering and analysis, cross-checking passenger manifests against watchlists, thorough screening at checkpoints, random canine team screening at airports, reinforced cockpit doors, Federal Air Marshals, armed pilots and a vigilant public. In combination, these layers provide enhanced security creating a much stronger and protected transportation system for the traveling public.” TSA also “continually assesses and evaluates the current threat environment and will adjust security measures as necessary to ensure the highest levels of aviation security without unnecessary disruption to travelers,” the agency said in a statement. 2ac – terrorism – airport terror – lone wolf Lone wolf terror’s a threat ABC 14 – (9/13/14, “Terrorism threat: Security ramped up at airports, public events after threat level increased to high,” http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-13/terrorism-alert-level-could-stay-high-for-long-time/5741474)//twemchen Travellers are being warned to expect tighter security measures at airports and public events as the country's intelligence agencies try to combat the threat of a so-called "lone wolf" terrorist attack. The domestic spy agency, ASIO, yesterday lifted the nation's terrorism alert level from medium to high – meaning an attack is considered likely. However, Prime Minister Tony Abbott has stressed there is no suggestion of an imminent attack. Security agencies are keeping watch on a number of people who are of interest, but it is the threat of someone acting alone that has them most concerned. It means there will be extra security at airports, public events and government buildings. Police patrols at the AFL semi-final in Melbourne were boosted last night, with officers visible at the gates and around the MCG. Victorian Premier Denis Napthine said the increased security should not deter people from major events. "I don't think any Victorian should change the way they operate, we should still go to great events like the AFL finals and the Spring Racing Carnival," he said. "But we just need to be that little bit more aware. "We say to people go about your business but be more alert and if there are issues of suspicion, we need you to report them." Tourism and Transport Forum director Trent Zimmerman said tourism operators understand the need for the extra precautions. "Safety is paramount and we have to at all costs avoid any domestic incident," he said. "I think that everybody in the industry accepts that the worst outcome would be a successful terrorism attack on Australian shores. "That would be far more damaging than any restrictions the Government could put in place to prevent terrorism." Virgin Australia said it would alert passengers if delays occurred and Qantas said it would work with federal authorities to ensure security measures remain appropriate. Export Council of Australia chairman Ian Murray said exporters accept the need for tighter security at ports and airports but the new counter-terrorism measures could affect international trade. "I think that's something the Minister for Trade and Investment will be very conscious of," he said. Mr Murray said the elevated risk was expected to continue for quite some time. Australian counter-terrorism expert Neil Fergus said that could mean months and possibly years. "I think the reality is given the nature of ISIL [Islamic State], it cannot be defeated in a matter of days, weeks or even months. It's going to be a long struggle," he said. Mr Fergus said there has been a definite spike in radical sentiment in Australia since recent tensions escalated in the Middle East. "We have a very small pocket of people in this country who have been active in recruiting young Sunni Muslims, facilitating their transport to join ISIL," he said. "These people really must be at the heart of the investigations because they are continuing to have some success. Until that stops, the threat is likely to stay." Queensland criminologist Mark Lauchs said it was not unusual to see a spike in terror activity around the anniversary of the September 11 attacks on the United States. "A number of groups associated either with Al Qaeda or offshoots of Al Qaeda or sympathising with Al Qaeda, it could even be local individuals, see this date as a good time to take some form of activity to obtain some advantage for the overall goals of this extremist jihad," Associate Professor Lauchs said. Greens senator Scott Ludlam said Australia's involvement in the Middle East conflict would only increase the likelihood of a terrorist attack. "We've got to make very sure that Australia doesn't end up simply participating in actions that perpetuate the horror and violence, and act perversely as recruiting activities for the very networks we're trying to close down," he told Sky News. 2ac – terrorism – airport terror – ‘stealth’ bombs Stealth bombs are a threat Cecil 14– Staff Writer at London Evening Standard (Nicholas Cecil, 7/4/14, “Terror alert at airports over smartphone 'stealth bombs',” http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/airport-terror-alert-over-iphone-stealth-bomb-9584004.html)//twemchen Al-Qaeda-linked terrorists are feared to have developed a way of turning mobile phones into “stealth” bombs, it emerged today. US officials singled out smartphones including iPhones and Samsung Galaxy handsets for extra security checks on US-bound flights from Europe, the Middle East and Africa. They believe bombmakers from Yemen-based al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) have discovered how to turn the phones into explosive devices which are extremely difficult to detect. Passengers’ shoes and other electronic devices will also face more detailed checks amid concerns about a new generation of non-metallic, vapourless bombs. There are even fears that suicide bombers could have explosives surgically implanted into them, making detection even harder. As a result, more intrusive pat-downs and swab tests may be introduced at airports, particularly for US-bound flights. In a chilling insight into AQAP’s fanaticism, expert bombmaker Ibrahim al-Asiri, is thought to have inserted a bomb into his younger brother Abdullah, 23, who died when it blew him apart in a failed suicide attack. British airports, including Heathrow and Gatwick, are now putting in a second layer of checks at departure gates after a request from Washington to increase security. US secret services have received intelligence that AQAP may have shared its bombmaking expertise with extremist groups in Syria, including the al-Nusra Front. British security services believe that more than 400 British Muslims have travelled to Syria and Iraq to join militant groups. American security chiefs called for the tighter airport checks because of the combination of the new generation of bombs terrorists are developing and the fear that they could use a British or European jihadist to trigger a device on a US-bound flight. Al-Asiri is thought to have been behind several failed terror strikes including the underpants and printer cartridge bomb plots. Aviation sources insist the extra security should not lead to delays despite millions of people heading off on their holidays over coming weeks. 2ac – airport terror bad – airlines Spills over to deck the entire industry --- empirics prove it’s possible, but we got lucky last time AP 7 (“U.S.: “Unthinkable” terror devastation prevented”, http://www.nbcnews.com/id/18999503/#.VbHRdvlViko)//trepka NEW YORK — Federal authorities said a plot by a suspected Muslim terrorist cell to blow up John F. Kennedy International Airport, its fuel tanks and a jet fuel artery could have caused “unthinkable” devastation. But while pipeline and security experts agreed that such an attack would have [shattered] 1ar – airport terror bad – airlines Shuts down the entire industry Bloom 11 --- Associate Vice President at Riddle Aeronautical University (Richard, “Airport Security”, http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/trnews/trnews275AirportSecurity.pdf)//trepka Identifying threat from passengers involves collecting and analyzing biological, psychological, and social information and developing a valid link to the probability of direct or indirect engagement in—or support of—terrorism. This applies to techniques such as data mining to collect and analyze travel history; biometrics, including facial recognition; human- and technology-mediated surveillance of mobility and location within the airport; behavioral detection and interviewing; or remote sensing of physiological activity. These techniques use the past and the present in an attempt to predict the future. Predictions of human behavior, especially socially meaningful behavior, however, often are found wanting. More than 130 years of scientific psychological research suggest that the prediction of human social behavior is unknowable, even when the best practices of inferential statistical theories and the putative capabilities of human intuition, insight, and intelligence are applied. Mass passenger screening poses 12 main difficulties: 1. The same data—the so-called signs, stigma, or indicators—may have different meanings at different times, in different situations, even with the same passenger, let alone different passengers. 2. The motivations of passengers may vary significantly within small temporal interludes, as may the links between motivations and specific behaviors. 3. How well can other people be known, if they themselves have less than complete conscious access to all motivations, which may vary? Sophisticated passengers who intend terrorism will choose not to look like terrorists as described in watch lists and profiles, but like passengers who do not intend terrorist acts. Most passengers are extremely unlikely to engage in terrorism; therefore a system to find terrorists must have extremely high sensitivity rates to identify terrorists, as well as extremely high specificity rates to avoid misidentifying nonterrorists as terrorists. Without high rates in sensitivity and specificity, operational chaos and a potential shutdown of commercial aviation would be likely. The probability of attack is irrelevant Miranda 15 --- PhD, College of Management and Technology, Walden University (Ubirathan, “The Relationship Between Terrorism, Oil Prices, and Airline Profitability”, http://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1446&context=dissertations)//trepka However small the influence, airline industry executives must deal with terrorism as a business threat. As the airline industry has no control over factors that influence terrorism, the viable option is to implement comprehensive business continuity programs that address the disruptive nature of terrorism. The mitigation of terrorism is 62 costly to businesses (Thatcher, 2013), but unpreparedness to possible terrorist event is costlier. The industry is on the brink --- a terrorist attack would be devastating --- best data Miranda 15 --- PhD, College of Management and Technology, Walden University (Ubirathan, “The Relationship Between Terrorism, Oil Prices, and Airline Profitability”, http://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1446&context=dissertations)//trepka Given the financial challenges faced by the airline industry, understanding of the combined effect of terrorism and the price of petroleum on airline profitability is imperative. The purpose of this correlational study was to determine if a combination of terrorism and the price of petroleum significantly predicted airline profitability, and which variable was the most significant. This study collected samples of financial records from major American commercial passenger and cargo airlines on costs of fuel (n = 84) and airline profitability (n = 84). The terrorism data (n = 84) were comprised of terrorist attacks on petroleum infrastructure in oil-producing nations, and incidents of highjacking aboard American aircraft. Systems theory, which explains complexity within systems, was the theoretical framework for this study. The results of the multiple linear regression analysis indicated the model was able to significantly predict airline profitability, F(2,81) = 5.447, p = .006, R 2 = .12. Both terrorism and cost of fuel were statistically significant, with the cost of fuel (beta = -.511, p = .002) indicating a higher contribution to the model than terrorism (beta = .452, p = .005). This study is important to airline executives as the results of the study indicate that the leaders in the airline industry should focus on operational efficiencies to maximize profitability. Positive social change implications include increased employment in the civil aviation industry, higher commercial activity in tourist and other travel-related service businesses, and the adoption of green technologies by the civil aviation manufacturing industry. Airport terrorism destroys airlines Hutson 6 (Brittany, staff writer, September 11, 2006, The Hilltop, “Airline Industry Suffers Effects of Terrorism,” http://www.thehilltoponline.com/2.4800/airline-industry-suffers-effects-of-terrorism-1.464081#.T4-ZgKv2bhd)//twemchen The airline industry has experienced a devastating decline in business as a result of the September 11th terrorism from Yahoo! News, recently there has been approximately $40 billion in losses and the disappearance of 150,000+ jobs. In comparison to August 2001, there are 155,000 fewer full-time employees industry wide and six of the nation’s largest airlines took 816 planes out of service. 1ar – airport terror bad – airlines – brink No resiliency – airline finances are inherently inflexible TCR 5/25 – (5/25/15, “NORTHERN MARIANA: Fitch Hikes Rating on $12MM Airport Bonds to 'B+',” Troubled Company Reporter, Lexis)//twemchen The airports set rates under a residual methodology with its carriers. However, the CPA has shown a history of reluctance to consistently pass through the full cost requirements given the fragile economy and nature of the airline industry, negatively impacting financial flexibility and resulting in past covenant violations. Management's actions in fiscal 2009 to increase airline rates have resulted in improved net revenues with coverage increasing well above the 1.25x requirement. Unaudited fiscal 2014 coverage is expected to be close to 5.74x following 4.26x coverage in the prior year, based on pledged revenues inclusive of all PFC collections. Providing somewhat of a consistent revenue stream to help service debt, non-airline revenues have been relatively stable over time and management continues to try to expand those sources. Unions, unprofitable routes, and low profits deck resiliency TCR 5/7 – (5/7/15, “LIAT: Minister wants Caribbean Governments to Subsidize Airline,” Troubled Company Reporter, Lexis)//twemchen Civil Aviation Minister Alva Baptiste said that the airline industry is inherently unstable citing powerful trade unions and unprofitable routes as being among the major challenges facing LIAT, according to Caribbean360.com. "LIAT has a number of challenges including powerful unions that can shut down the carrier, and that is a very big issue," Minister Baptiste said, noting that airlines do not make vast profits, notes the report. Cash problems The National 6/21 – (6/21/15, “SpiceJet back on course,” Lexis)//twemchen Cash woes brought the carrier to the brink. But its co-founder, who sold out in 2010, returned to take a majority stake that gave new momentum to the airline before trimming the flight controls to steer it on to a path for growth, writes Rebecca Bundhun A few months ago, the Indian budget airline SpiceJet seemed on the brink of a fatal stall. In December, the carrier's financial problems reached a tipping point as its fleet was grounded, forcing SpiceJet to cancel more than 1,800 flights. Dozens of pilots had already quit the airline in the months before this. Many believed that SpiceJet was sure to go the way of Kingfisher Airlines, which ceased operations in 2012 because of its financial woes. Corruption and mismanagement Yesuiah 6/11 – Staff Writer at New Straits Times (Samuel Yesuiah, 6/11/15, “Lesson on importance of good management,” Lexis)//twemchen Poor leadership and ineffective management have bled the national airline to the brink of bankruptcy. Whether there has been corruption or mismanagement of funds in the MAS management has yet to be seen. It is a fact that MAS has not been breaking even for a number of years since Datuk Idris Jala helmed the airline. When he was the chief executive officer, MAS was a success story, and during his tenure, MAS soared. Unfortunately, after his departure, MAS slipped into oblivion. It has been making losses every fiscal year. Profits are fragile – but it’s not over yet NZH 7/14 – (7/14/15, “Travel tax could cost 100s of jobs say airlines,” Lexis)//twemchen The levy would severely weaken airlines" already fragile profitability. At its current level, it will represent 3 times the average net profit (of USS 4.24) made by airlines in Asia-Pacific for each passenger. "Instead of harming the air transport sector and increasing the cost of transport, New Zealand should focus on identifying innovative ways to keep more passengers coming to the country while keeping its borders safe. Brink TCR 7/10 – (7/10/15, “MONARCH AIRLINES: Losses Shrink Following Restructuring,” Lexis)//twemchen Ashley Armstrong at The Telegraph reports that Monarch, the European airline that was rescued from the brink of collapse eight months ago, said that it is on track to make a profit after shrinking losses by GBP40 million. 1ar – airport terror bad – airlines – at: insurance Terrorism decks insurance – 9/11 proves Lewinsohn 5 – Senior Analyst at the New York investment manager Anchorage Advisors (Jonathan Lewinsohn, 1/1/5, “Bailing out Congress: an assessment and defense of the Air Transportation Safety and System Stabilization Act of 2001.,” Yale Law Journal, Pg. 438(53) Vol. 115 No. 2 ISSN: 0044-0094, Lexis)//twemchen But all of this changed on September 11 when an industry that was already at the breaking point saw its "economic rubber band snapped."(14) Within hours of the attacks, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued the first ever national groundstop order requiring theshutdown of U.S. airspace. (15) With fixed costs upwards of 80%, (16) the airlines started hemorrhaging hundreds of millions of dollars per day, (17) leading to calls for government assistance even before planes were back in the sky. Industry lobbyists, (18) Wall Street analysts, (19) and national newspapers (20) all highlighted the industry's complex predicament: Insurance plans had been canceled or made significantly more expensive; (21) credit markets, unsure about the liability facing the airlines, had all but dried up; (22) airline workers were being laid off by the tens of thousands; (23) and the ripple effects were spreading across the "just-in-time" economy. (24) To make matters worse, airline equity values were poised to plunge once the markets reopened, (25) and a number of carriers were rumored to be headed for bankruptcy. In Congress, a consensus developed that the nation's airlines--a symbol of the flag (26)--could not be made victim to the terrorists. What emerged, only eleven days after the attacks, was the Air Transportation Safety and System Stabilization Act (ATSSSA) of 2001, (27) an $28 billion (28) federal bailout that had been conceived, drafted, and signed amid a marked sense of crisis. Terrorism decks insurance Post 3 – Post Magazine, Timothy Benn Publishing Ltd. (7/17/3, “THE BRITISH INSURANCE AWARDS 2003; REINSURANCE INNOVATION OF THE YEAR - TROIKA INSURANCE COMPANY - FLYING IN THE FACE OF ADVERSITY.,” Lexis)//twemchen Having lost four planes to terrorist actions, insurance companies invoked the seven-day cancellation clause and slashed the maximum cover available for third-party non-passenger liability cover for war and terrorism risks. It fell from more than $1bn (GBP 596m) to a maximum of $50m. At the same time, premiums rose exponentially. Airlines faced the nightmare scenario of their airfleets being grounded because of insufficient cover to satisfy the companies from which they leased their aircraft, causing financial losses that could have proved fatal at a time when passenger numbers slumped rapidly after 11 September. In the days immediately following the attacks, the aviation insurance crisis snowballed rapidly. When the seven-day cancellation clause was invoked on 17 September 2001 it became clear that unless a solution was found quickly, the world's airlines would not be able to fly anywhere at all from midnight on Monday 24 September. Europe’s not covered Morning Star 2 – People’s Press Printing Society Ltd (10/3/2, “EU airlines plead for more handouts;,” Morning Star, Lexis)//twemchen THE European aviation industry called on the European Union yesterday to keep state guarantees for war and terrorism risks that became uninsurable after last year's September 11 attacks. The European commission said last week that it would not allow the temporary guarantees to continue after the end of October. EU transport ministers are due to discuss the issue at a meeting in Luxembourg today. "Europe's airlines and airports will soon be left with insufficient third-party war and terrorism insurance cover to ensure the continuation of normal operations, " the European airline and airport bodies said in a joint statement. After the hijacked airliner attacks on US cities last year, commercial insurers slashed the cover that they offered for war and terrorism third-party liability risks, leading governments around the world to step in to provide the necessary cover. It’s uninsurable AFR 1 – Australian Financial Review (9/25/1, “No safe landing for the airlines,” Fairfax Media Publications Pty. Limited, Lexis)//twemchen The move by governments to provide support to the airline industry is justified because, as the Prime Minister, Mr John Howard, observed at the weekend, governments should not stand by and allow terrorism to undermine whole industries. Fast decisions were needed on insurance because the rise in private premiums threatened to force a worldwide wave of international service cutbacks. 1ar – airport terror bad – airlines – magnifier Even single carriers have a ripple effect Oberstar 2 – Representative from Minnesota (James Oberstar, 9/24/2, “HEARING OF THE AVIATION SUBCOMMITTEE OF THE HOUSE COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE,” Federal News Service)//twemchen "Failure of an established carrier can have a domino effect throughout the air transport issue, the aerospace industry and the whole economy. The harmful effects of recession and high fuel prices pale in comparison to the destructive competition in the industry today" -- words said at a committee hearing in 1981. 2ac – airport terror bad – trade Causes trade collapse Bloom 11 --- Associate Vice President at Riddle Aeronautical University (Richard, “Airport Security”, http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/trnews/trnews275AirportSecurity.pdf)//trepka In addition, some technologies offend cultural sensibilities—for example, the wanding of a body or the opening of a coffin in transit. Cultural offense can increase motivations for terrorism in some passengers and can decrease the optimal performance of security personnel. Some technologies also may pose health issues if the cumulative effects of screenings or possibly malfunctioning equipment generate higher exposure to radiation or chemicals—although the data to support these effects are not sufficient. These phenomena may present a significant threat, however, to the integrity of the contents of air cargo, along with associated damage to economic viability and trade. 1ar – airport terror bad – trade Airport terror disrupts global trade Sweet 8 --- adjunct faculty at the University of Maryland, Department of Emergency Management (Kathleen, “Aviation and Airport Security: Terrorism and Safety Concerns, Second Edition”, Google Books)//trepka Civil aviation infrastructure is vital to modern society due to its importance to global trade, travel and tourism. In the United States, over 10 million jobs more than $1.0 trillion in annual economic activity depend, directly and indirectly, on civil aviation [Chow et al. 2005]. Due to its importance, the air transportation system has become a prime target of terrorist attack [Chow et al. 2005. NCTC 20l2]. In this section, the proposed risk assessment framework is illustrated with an example in which cost effectiveness of coun- termeasures are evaluated for civil aviation subjected to risk from attack of terrorist groups. The protection of civil aviation from an intelligent aggressor must ensure both the integrity continuity of commercial air transport and the security of the supporting physi- cal infrastructure [Kosatka 201 I]. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) has identified general security zones and boundaries which should be con- sidered in the process of planning airport protection [Kosatka 2()l l]. Seven security zones, as shown in Figure 2, are considered in this example; each security zone has a distinct set of countermeasures. ***REGIONAL ECON *CALIFORNIA Directory: file -> view view -> Western Europe after wwii view -> Author study: paul fleischman view -> Qpa1 7ela study Guide view -> Arctic Oil/Gas Neg view -> November 1970 Approximately 150,000-500,000 deaths Bhola Cyclone Bangladesh view -> Grade Level: 6 Unit of Study: Caribbean glce view -> Citation: Duffield, Katy view -> Table of Contents Lesson # view -> Chinese Wind Energy Disad Download 1.61 Mb. Share with your friends:
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