Chicago Debate League 2013/14 Core Files
NC Shell: China Disadvantage 336
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- 2NC Extensions: A/t - 1 “Latin America Isn’t Key” 337
- 2NC Extensions: A/t - 2“U.S. Outspends China” 338
1NC Shell: China Disadvantage 336C) Internal Link: China is obsessed with U.S. foreign policy. Even minor shifts toward containment will cause overreactions and alliances designed to counterbalance U.S. interests. FOOT, 06 [Rosemary, Professor of International Relations, and the John Swire Senior Research Fellow at St Antony's College, Oxford University, “Chinese strategies in a US-hegemonic global order: accommodating and hedging,” International Affairs 8] China is neither part of, nor determinedly seeking to build, anti-hegemonic coalitions. Consequently, other emerging states such as Brazil, India or Russia should not expect too much in the way of sustained cooperation from China on this front, assuming they are interested in forming such coalitions. It is unlikely to stick out for negotiating positions that the US would see as seriously detrimental to its interests. This approach seems likely to change only were China to become convinced that it faced sustained US hostility. Beijing’s leaders remain preoccupied with their relationship with the US, Hu Jintao reportedly describing America in 2002 as the ‘central thread in China’s foreign policy strategy’.49 A consequence of this preoccupation is that its strategy is fixed only in the broadest of terms, and largely remains contingent on what is decided in Washington as a reaction to China’s rise. Beijing’s policy, therefore, is not determined simply by inequalities in the distribution of power: it is not US hegemony as such that influences China’s policies, but how that hegemonic position is used, especially with reference to China itself. D) Impact: Counterbalancing leads to great power wars which will cause extinction. NYE, 90 [Joseph, Dean of Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, Bound to Lead, p. 17) Perceptions of change in the relative power of nations are of critical importance to understanding the relationship between decline and war. One of the oldest generalizations about international politics attributes the onset of major wars to shifts in power among the leading nations. Thus Thucydides accounted for the onset of the Peloponnesian War which destroyed the power of ancient Athens. The history of the interstate system since 1500 is punctuated by severe wars in which one country struggled to surpass another as the leading state. If, as Robert Gilpin argues, “international politics has not changed fundamentally over the millennia,” the implications for the future are bleak. And if fears about shifting power precipitate a major war in a world with 50,000 nuclear weapons, history as we know it may end. 2NC Extensions: A/t - #1 “Latin America Isn’t Key” 3371) China is peacefully expanding into new regions like Latin America where the United States is no longer present. They need to expand their sphere of influence in order to develop and create international ties, or else they will turn back to hard-line unilateral policies that threaten global stability. Extend our CESARIN evidence. 2) We have a specific link. [Insert Plan-Specific Link] 2) The region does not need to be globally important for China to overreact because they care about what the U.S. does. Even if Latin America isn’t a huge market for China, they will see the plan as containment. Extend our FOOT evidence. 3) China is focusing on Latin America due to U.S. preoccupation with other regions. MENENDEZ, 13 [Fernando; economist and principal of The Cordoba Group International LLC; “The East is rising, in Latin America,” 5/10, http://www.thecommentator.com/article/3488/the_east_is_rising_in_latin_america] When concerns about a rising China are broached they are usually focused around that nation’s increasing economic, financial and military power in Asia. Another region undergoing significant political and economic development, once considered the backyards of the United States, is less often cited. Latin America, however, is fast becoming a growing nub on China’s radar as a global power. U.S. preoccupation with the Middle East has led arguably to a decline in American power in Latin America and elsewhere. Economically, as America’s influence wanes in the southern hemisphere China’s has grown. The shift can be seen in levels of loans, foreign direct investment and trade. 2NC Extensions: A/t - #2“U.S. Outspends China” 3381) Their evidence isn’t conclusive or predictive. It says the U.S. has been the largest trading partner in Latin America in the past, but does not speak to future partnerships. The trends show that the U.S. is losing ground while China is gaining. 2) Even if the U.S. built up a large trade relationship in the past, it is slowing while China is growing rapidly. REUTERS, 13 [Gary Regenstreif, “The looming U.S.-China rivalry over Latin America,” 6/12, http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/06/12/the-looming-u-s-china-rivalry-over-latin-america/] In Obama’s first term, however, the administration was widely viewed as neglecting Latin America. And China has moved in fast. China built its annual trade with the region from virtually nothing in 2000 to about $260 billion in 2012. In 2009, it overtook the United States as the largest trading partner of Brazil, the region’s powerhouse — largely through massive purchases of iron ore and soy. Other data is telling: In 1995, for example, the United States accounted for 37 percent of Brazil’s foreign direct investment. That dropped to 10 percent in 2011, according to the Council of the Americas, which seeks to foster hemispheric ties. 3) China is outspending the U.S. in Latin America. GLOBALIST, 13 [Kevin Gallagher, “Time for a U.S. Pivot to Latin America,” 6/18, http://www.theglobalist.com/StoryId.aspx?StoryId=10035] Since 2003, thus over the past decade, China's policy banks have provided more finance to Latin America than their counterparts at the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank and the U.S. Export-Import Bank. If anything ought to awaken the United States from its past slumber and taking Latin America essentially for granted, that comparison ought to do it. Simply put, the United States and the array of largely Western-dominated international financial institutions have been outgunned by China's financial muscle. Welcome to the brave new world! 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