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OBAMA’S POLITICAL CAPITAL KEY TO START.

To begin with, the timeline is tight. As everyone knows, the treaty would have to be ready by December, when START expires. Diplomats I've talked to are publicly optimistic about reaching this goal, but privately admit that the schedule isn't realistic. I also wouldn't underestimate the problems that the new agreement will face domestically. While Obama and Medvedev can probably convince the Senate and Duma to ratify the new treaty without much delay, they may find that they will have to spend substantial amounts of political capital to do so.

Mr Obama has pledged to put nuclear weapons reduction at the heart of his presidency and his first move will be to reopen talks with Moscow to replace the 1991 US-Soviet Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), which expires in December. Under that pact, the two countries have cut their respective stockpiles from roughly 10,000 to 5000. ``We are going to re-engage Russia in a more traditional, legally binding arms reduction process,'' an official from the administration said. ``We are prepared to engage in a broader dialogue with the Russians over issues of concern to them. Nobody would be surprised if the number reduced to the 1000-mark for the post-START treaty.'' Efforts to revive the START talks were fitful under George W. Bush and complicated by his insistence on building a missile defence shield. ``If Obama proceeds down this route, this will be a major departure,'' one Republican said. ``But there will be trouble in Congress.'' The plan has been complicated by the nuclear ambitions of Iran, which launched its first satellite into space on Tuesday, and North Korea, which is preparing to test a long-range ballistic missile capable of striking the US. Mr Obama views the reduction of arms by the US and Russia as critical to efforts to persuade countries such as Iran not to develop the bomb. His hopes of winning Russian goodwill suffered another blow this week when the Kremlin announced that it had effectively bribed Kyrgyzstan into closing a US air base at Manas. Minutes before the announcement, Russian President Dimitri Medvedev had announced that Russia would give Kyrgyzstan $US150 million in aid and a $US2 billion loan. The developments in Iran and Kyrgyzstan help explain why Mr Obama is anxious to usher in a new era of goodwill with Moscow. Russia, he believes, is central to a series of US foreign policy challenges including efforts to persuade Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions and for Russia to open military supply routes to Afghanistan. Mr Obama faces a series of other obstacles to his efforts to reduce US and Russian stockpiles. Many Republicans in Congress will be fiercely opposed to a new treaty that cuts the US nuclear stockpile.

Asia can't really stop sections of the U.S. establishment from replaying the tiresome song of arms control. Asia, however, can be certain that a domestic political backlash is bound to follow the current disarmament euphoria in the Obama administration. There is no guarantee at this time that Obama can mobilize the necessary two-thirds support in the U. S. Senate that must ratify the new agreements with Moscow.

Kitfield, ’09 (James, award winning defense and foreign affairs correspondent, National Journal, 5/30)

.Cirincione believes that the disarmament steps Obama has outlined will eventually lead to more cooperation on preventing proliferation, which will increase security, making room for further disarmament and cooperation. "With luck, that coin will just keep flipping over and over, until eventually a lot of things become possible," he said. "My biggest concern, however, is the cynicism that has built up on this issue that tends to disparage the whole nonproliferation agenda. That cynicism chills politicians and officials who are worried about looking weak, and it demoralizes those who fear they are wasting time on a hopeless agenda. That kind of fatalism really is our greatest adversary."