S ECTION 2:ECONOMIC ASPECTS Introduction
Eskom acquired the Koeberg NPS site and surrounding properties namely the farms Duinefontein and Klein Duynefontein in the mid 70s, following extensive feasibility studies to establish a nuclear power station in the Western Cape. The decision to establish a nuclear power station was motivate by the need for the replacement/augmentation of generating capacity in the Cape (about 2000 MWe) and to improve reliability of supply, which was hampered by long distance transmission from the coal stations in the Mpumalanga province. The cost of coal transport to the Western Cape the land required for the disposal of pulverised flue ash and the adverse meteorological conditions in the coastal area for plume dispersion are some of the more important considerations which mitigated against the establishment of a coal fired power station in the Western Cape.
Land-Use Rights
In terms of the Guide Plans for the Cape and West Coast Region which were established under the Physical Planning Act, Eskom was granted the rights to use the property for nuclear power generation purposes. The current Framework Development Plan for the Blaauwberg sub-region still recognise and demarcate the land for this purpose.
The land use zoning of the property is for agriculture use and the applicant will have to ensure that the necessary land use rezoning and use right, to undertake the proposed activity be obtained from the Cape Provincial Authority in terms of the applicable land-use Ordinance for the Cape Province.
Spatial Planning Implications
According to the City of Cape Town and Provincial Planning Departments the north-south development axis from Cape Town to Atlantis along the West Coast, presents the only remaining land that is available for especially urban development. The emergency planning zones and regulation of population density around Koeberg NPS, according to the authority planners, results in sub optimal urban land-use and increases the cost of service provision for such urban development.
The addition of the proposed Plant, the extension of the Koeberg NPS sites life, and pending the emergency zone restriction imposed by the NNR, are considered by the said authorities as potentially aggravating conditions for future spatial planning along the West Coast development axis.
Assessment of Impact(s)
In view of the conclusions of the PRA for a category C event, as defined by the Fundamental Safety Criteria (Table 1, Chapter 2) of the NNR, the proposed Plant will require an exclusion zone of 400 meters and will, consequently not impact on Spatial Planning beyond this distance.
Pending the decision by the NNR, the need for an emergency planning zone around the proposed Plant, may also not be required. This however does not negate the need for emergency planning procedures for the proposed Plant.
Conclusion -
In addition to environmental authorisation and nuclear licensing, the Applicant will have to ensure that the required land use rezoning and rights are obtained, to undertake the proposed activity.
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The proposed Plant will not hold additional spatial planning impact, subject to the approval and licensing requirements of the NNR.
Impact on Tourism Introduction
Urban Econ was appointed by the EIA Consortium to conduct a survey on tourists and tourism operators, to determine what effect the proposed PBMR Plant, fuel manufacture and associated transport of nuclear materials may pose to the tourism industry.
Coal-fired power stations generate about 90% of South Africa's electricity, with one large nuclear power station (Koeberg - Cape Town) generating another 5%. The rest of the supply (5%) is generated by hydro-electric and pumped storage schemes.
It is estimated that the future demand for electricity in South Africa will exceed current supply levels between the years 2005 and 2010. This estimation is based on a moderate growth of 2.8% per annum (p.a.). In the longer term (i.e. 2020 and beyond), the existing coal fired power stations will start to come to the end of their economic productive lives. The potential for hydro electricity to satisfy this estimated shortfall can be considered marginal as there are not enough suitable sites in South Africa. Similarly, it would appear as if South Africa’s natural gas resources are also too limited to provide a viable option. This implies that the only options available would be coal fired and / or nuclear power. In the case of the coal fired option, this can only be achieved if the capacity of the existing stations are increased, and / or new stations are developed. In order to assess the potential of the nuclear option more accurately, Eskom has initiated an investigation of a particular nuclear technology, namely Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR). Prototype PBMR reactors have been build in the United States (US) and Germany between the late 1960’s and early 1980’s. Eskom has been investigating the PBMR option as part of its Integrated Electricity Planning Process since 1993. The overall objectives of these investigations were to establish whether PBMR could become part of Eskom’s expansion planning and what specific advantages it would bring over other options. The results of these investigations confirmed that PBMR should be considered as a possible option for future South African electricity supply.
Since the technology had not been previously commercialised, there is a need to demonstrate the techno-economic viability on a full scale demonstration plant. In 1995, Eskom commissioned a pre-feasibility study, followed by a techno-economic study in 1997. In 1998, the project has progressed to the point at which it had entered the full scale engineering design phase. In 2000, a PBMR company was formed between Eskom, the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC), British Nuclear Fuels plc and the United States utility Exelon Corporation113, to build and market PBMR-based power plants. The intention is to build and operate a single module to serve as a demonstration plant and to launch a platform for local and international sales. The proposed project will essentially involve the following:
i. The manufacturing of nuclear fuel at the existing BEVA buildings at Pelindaba.
ii. The transportation of the nuclear fuel from Pelindaba to Koeberg.
iii. The generation of energy at a new plant that is to be built next to the existing Koeberg power plant.
The first phase of the project was given the go-ahead by the South African Government in April 2000. It involves undertaking a detailed feasibility study, an environmental impact study (EIA) and a public participation process. The next phase, which will involve the physical construction of the demonstration module, is subject to the successful completion of the first phase and the issuing of a construction licence by the South African National Nuclear Regulator.
This particular study forms part of the first phase of the project, and the objective is to determine and assess the possible effects of the establishment of the PBMR plant on the local economy through the tourism industry.
Society at large has certain perceptions about nuclear technology with regarding to the dangers associated with radiation. From a tourism perspective, these perceptions may influence the decision and willingness to visit and spend time in an area that has a nuclear plant.
The tourism industry is one of the main drivers of the local economies of both the Pelindaba and Koeberg areas. As such, it is important to determine and assess these perceptions in terms of the degree to which they may influence the decisions of potential tourists to visit any of the two areas. Ultimately, the impact on the tourism industry will also be reflected in the local and regional economies in terms of criteria such as employment and the Gross Geographic Product (GGP).
The purpose of this study can be defined as follows:
To determine and assess the current perceptions within the tourism industry (both demand and supply) on nuclear technology, with specific reference to the use of PBMR technology at the Koeberg and Pelindaba plants.
The area comprises those areas that can be considered to fall within the “tourism catchment areas” of Koeberg and Pelindaba. For the purposes of this study, these two study areas were defined to include the following:
i. Koeberg:
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Blaauwberg
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Cape Town Central
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Tygerberg
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Helderberg
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Oostenberg
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South-Peninsula
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Yzerfontein
ii. Pelindaba:
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Pretoria
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Johannesburg
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Beestekraal
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Hartebeesfontein
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Kosmos
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Meerhof
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Melodie
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Schoemansville
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Hartebeespoort
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Scheerpoort
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