Relations impacts and cp’s


AT: TUrkish-Israel relations zero sum



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AT: TUrkish-Israel relations zero sum




Obama sees both Israel and Turkey as important allies – not zero sum

Times of India 6/3/10 (Mark Landler, NYT News Service, “After flotilla raid, US torn between key allies”, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/After-flotilla-raid-US-torn-between-key-allies/articleshow/6005326.cms)


Struggling to navigate a bitter split between two crucial allies, the Obama administration on Tuesday tried to placate an outraged Turkish government while refusing to condemn Israel for its deadly raid on a flotilla of aid ships bound for Gaza. President Obama called PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey to express his "deep condolences" for the deaths of Turkish citizens in clashes with Israeli soldiers on the ship. He told Erdogan the US was pushing Israel to return their bodies, as well as 300 Turks taken from the ship and being held in Israel. Obama called for a "credible, impartial and transparent investigation of the facts surrounding this tragedy," the White House said. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said such an investigation could include international participation, something the Israelis said they opposed. It is far from clear that these efforts will mollify Turkey, which accused Israel of state-sponsored terrorism and likened the psychological impact of the raid to the Sept 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in the US. The United States does not want to abandon Israel, which has been subjected to international opprobrium since the raid. But it also does not want to alienate Turkey, which is playing an increasingly vocal role on the world stage. "Turkey and Israel are both good friends of the US, and we are working with both to deal with the aftermath of the tragic incident," Clinton said after meeting with Turkey's foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu.

US-Turkey relations bad: CMR




Low relations reduces Turkish military influence - best promotes democracy

Los Angeles Times 8/3/2003


In the view of some Turks, the estrangement between Turkish and American armies has a side benefit. Deprived, however temporarily, of its powerful backer, the Turkish military may be more inclined to accept new laws passed by Turkey's civilian leaders -- which will curtail the generals' role in politics. Despite Washington's stated support for democratic reform in Turkey, many citizens here believe that American governments have often lent unquestioning support to the armed forces. "The U.S. role in Turkey did have a negative influence on the democratic process because it dealt with the Turkish military," said Husnu Ondul of the Turkish Human Rights Assn. "If the U.S. would remain neutral, it would be a positive contribution."

INSERT CMR IMPACT




US-Turkey relations bad: Russia



Decreased US/Turkey relations allows Turkey to solidify its relations with Russia

Oultchenko, 2003

[Natalia Head of the Turkey Desk, Middle East Department @ the

Russian Academy of Sciences, 5/12/ (“Turkey’s Strategic Future: A

Russian Review” – ESF Working Paper) http://www.eusec.org/oultchenko.htm]


In an article with the very symptomatic title "Turkish-Russian relations in the shade of the relations of the two countries with the West", a well known Turkish scholar, Gulten Kazgan, stressed that from the XVIII century up to our days Turkish-Russian relations have stayed under the strong influence of the relations of each country with the leading Western countries. Saying it another way, their mutual relations are derivative from their relations with the West. As a result, the specific character of the relations of each of the two countries with the West is a determining factor of their bilateral relations. In the same article, Kazgan described some scenarios of the possible development of the Turkish-Russian relations in the first quarter of the 21st century. One of the scenarios is like this: In case of non-efficient development of the relations with her main Western Allies – the USA and the EU countries – and at the same time a friendly policy of Russia, Turkey starts a more active regional policy. As a result, there will be closer political and economic relations between Turkey and Russia while Turkey's cooperation with the USA both in policy and economy will stay less intensive.

Turkey/Russia relations are key to Turkey’s economy


Larabee, 2000

[F. Stephen Analyst @ RAND, (The Future of Turkish-Western

Relations) http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1241/]
Turkey also has a strong economic stake in maintaining good relations with Moscow. Russia is Turkey’s second largest trade partner behind Germany and its main supplier of natural gas. In addition, a flourishing “suitcase trade” between Turkey and Russia exists. While this trade has declined recently, it accounts for an important part of the unofficial Turkish economy. Thus, Ankara has a strong economic incentive to keep relations with Russia on an even keel.

Turkish economic decline leads to nationalism


Lesser 2001

[Ian O., Senior Analyst @ RAND, Specializing in Mediterranean and Strategic Affairs and Former Member of the Policy Planning Staff @ the Department of State, June (“Turkey, Greece, and the U.S. in a Changing Strategic Environment” – Testimony Before the House International Relations Committee) http://www.rand.org]


Third, the crisis has implications for Turkey's regional and international role. Prolonged economic and political turmoil will leave Ankara with little energy and less capability to play an active external role. Ambitious defense modernization plans are being postponed, and costly regional initiatives (including energy projects) may languish. More profoundly, the crisis could encourage a nationalistic and inward-looking tendency among public opinion and even some elites. This, in turn, could have negative repercussions on Greek-Turkish relations, Turkey's EU candidacy, and perhaps regional cooperation with the U.S. The crisis has already stimulated a lively debate in Turkey about the risks of globalization, with many Turks blaming international institutions for Turkey's travails.



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