Sbsp affirmative- arl lab- ndi 2011

Soft Power Alternative Causality

We have 6 warrants for EU collapse : economic degradation, euro collapse, welfare system, birth rates, Ireland, and nationalist politics. SBSP can’t solve for all that so they can’t access soft power

1. Soft power gone – EU system inevitably collapses by 2013

2. Soft power gone – euro headed towards currency collapse

Cox ’10 (Jeff, Staff Writer for CNBC. “European Union, Currency Are Headed for Collapse: Gartman” http://www.cnbc.com/id/36961257/European_Union_Currency_Are_Headed_for_Collapse_Gartman. )
The current European debt crisis likely will not end until the euro collapses as a currency and takes the entire European Union with it, said Dennis Gartman, hedge fund manager and author of "The Gartman Letter." "I think the whole thing will go down to defeat, the whole thing will eventually unravel," Gartman said in an interview with CNBC.com. Gartman said he doesn't have a specific timetable for how long it will take for the collapse of the 17-year-old EU, but said, "it doesn't look good." The debt problems continued to escalate Wednesday as Greek citizens rioted in the streets over proposed austerity measures that would be required for any rescue plan to gain approval. At the same time, Moody's warned that it might downgrade the debt for Portugal, accelerating worries that Greece's unremitting debt worries could spread across the continent. Gartman holds the following long positions: 15 percent gold; 10 percent silver, and 15 percent each to Canadian and Australian dollars; he is short 15 percent each in euros, pounds and yen. The chaos was enough for Gartman to advise US investors to get out of the stock market. "It means confusion, it means a stronger dollar, it probably means weak commodity prices," Gartman said. "I think they should be out. People should be on the sidelines and out." A correction of as much as 15 percent in the US market "would be normal," he said. "There's always a chance we could get worse than that." In his daily letter to investors, Gartman said there is little chance of a peaceful, successful resolution of Greek's troubles. "The modern Greek culture is so dependent upon government largesse, and is so used to the fact that Greek fiscal irresponsibility will be bailed out by the taxes paid by responsible German workers and businessmen, that we cannot see this being resolved short of Greece being summarily tossed out of the EMU, or removing itself voluntarily," he wrote. He added that "we are not naive. Rather we are realists, and realists know that little other than chaos and the eventual breaking up of the EUR is the way of the future."

3. Soft power gone – Ireland causes EU collapse

Kollewe ’10 (Julia, Staff Writer for the Guardian. “Ireland crisis could cause EU collapse, warns president” http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/nov/16/ireland-bailout-government-says-no-need-to-panic. 16 November 2010 )
The president of the European Union has warned that the EU could collapse unless the debt crisis that is gripping the region is resolved. Herman Van Rompuy, president of the European Council, raised the stakes ahead of this evening's showdown talks between finance ministers in Brussels. With Ireland and Portugal both on the brink of seeking a bailout, Van Rompuy warned that there is a serious risk of contagion spreading across the continent. "We're in a survival crisis," Van Rompuy said in a speech in Brussels. "We all have to work together in order to survive with the eurozone, because if we don't survive with the eurozone we will not survive with the European Union." However, the former Belgian prime minister added: "I'm very confident we will overcome this." Van Rompuy's speech added to the pressure on the Irish government, which was continuing to resist international pressure to accept a bailout this morning. Shares fell across Europe as pressure mounted on Ireland to accept an EU or International Monetary Fund bailout to stem contagion to other high-deficit eurozone countries. Portugal, which has seen its borrowing costs rocket along with Ireland's, warned last night that it too might need a rescue package. But despite fears that the crisis could bring down the euro, Ireland's minister for European Affairs Dick Roche denied this morning that Ireland needed emergency financing. "I would hope after the Ecofin meeting this afternoon and tomorrow there would be more logic introduced into this," he said on the BBC's Today programme. "There is no reason why we should trigger an EU or IMF-type bailout." He admitted: "There is a problem with liquidity in banks, there is no doubt about that, but I don't think that the appropriate response to that would be for European finance ministers to panic." Roche reiterated: "Ireland doesn't need to trigger any mechanisms because of sovereign debt and the problems in banks are being dealt with." Sovereignty at stake Ireland fears the punitive terms of a bailout as it would have to give up partial sovereignty over its finances and could be forced to raise corporation tax. Ireland's opposition finance spokesman, Michael Noonan, said yesterday that a bailout could lead to Ireland being suspended from the bond markets for three or four years. The FTSE 100 index in London had fallen by 94 points by midday, at 5726. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei closed down 0.3% at 9797.10 while Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 1.4% to 23,693.02. Portugal's finance minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos said last night his country was at risk, as "we are not facing only a national or country problem – it is the problems of Greece, Portugal and Ireland." Many City analysts believe a bailout of some sort is inevitable. Gary Jenkins, head of fixed income research at Evolution Securities, said: "The latest idea seems to be that they [Ireland] utilise EU money to recapitalise their banking sector. This may be a more politically acceptable way of accepting aid for the Irish government. It is clear that as much as Ireland protests that they can fund themselves for a while yet that the EU would like the situation settled as quickly as possible to try and stop the contagion effect. The meeting of the EU finance ministers today could end up resembling a situation rather like when you meet an old friend who has fallen on hard times and try to help them out financially ... 'Go on, take it, it's nothing.' 'No, I couldn't, really, I'm fine.'" Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, wrote in the Financial Times today: "Put simply the Irish – like the Greeks – are on a path to near or complete insolvency." He added: "The reason the EU has so far decided to provide emergency financing to Greece and Ireland is not because it lacks a legal mechanism for orderly restructuring; it is rather because of concerns about systemic contagion." But he argued that an orderly restructuring via bond exchange offers – in which sovereign debt is exchanged for other assets – is the best way to reduce this risk.

4. Soft power gone – birth rates and welfare system cause EU collapse

Christian ’05 (Nicholas, Staff Writer for NewsScotsman. “CIA gives grim warning on European prospects” http://news.scotsman.com/europeanunion/CIA-gives-grim-warning-on.2595505.jp. 16 January 2005)
THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems. The report by the intelligence agency, which forecasts how the world will look in 2020, warns that Europe could be dragged into economic decline by its ageing population. It also predicts the end of Nato and post-1945 military alliances. In a devastating indictment of EU economic prospects, the report warns: "The current EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role." It adds that the EU’s economic growth rate is dragged down by Germany and its restrictive labour laws. Reforms there - and in France and Italy to lesser extents - remain key to whether the EU as a whole can break out of its "slow-growth pattern". Reflecting growing fears in the US that the pain of any proper reform would be too much to bear, the report adds that the experts it consulted "are dubious that the present political leadership is prepared to make even this partial break, believing a looming budgetary crisis in the next five years would be the more likely trigger for reform". The EU is also set for a looming demographic crisis because of a drop in birth rates and increased longevity, with devastating economic consequences. The report says: "Either European countries adapt their workforces, reform their social welfare, education and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations [chiefly from Muslim countries] or they face a period of protracted economic stasis." As a result of the increased immigration needed, the report predicts that Europe’s Muslim population is set to increase from around 13% today to between 22% and 37% of the population by 2025, potentially triggering tensions. The report predicts that America’s relationships with Europe will be "dramatically altered" over the next 15 years, in a move away from post-Second World War institutions. Nato could disappear and be replaced by increased EU action. "The EU, rather than Nato, will increasingly become the primary institution for Europe, and the role Europeans shape for themselves on the world stage is most likely to be projected through it," the report adds. "Whether the EU will develop an army is an open question." Defence spending by individual European countries, including the UK, France, and Germany, is likely to fall further behind China and other countries over the next 15 years. Collectively these countries will outspend all others except the US and possibly China. The expected next technological revolution will involve the convergence of nano, bio, information and materials technology and will further bolster China and India’s prospects, the study predicts. Both countries are investing in basic research in these fields and are well placed to be leaders. But whereas the US will retain its overall lead, the report warns "Europe risks slipping behind Asia in some of these technologies". For Europe, an increasing preference for natural gas may reinforce regional relationships, such as those with Russia or North Africa, given the inter-dependence of pipeline delivery, the report argues. But this means the EU will have to deal with Russia, which the report also warns "faces a severe demographic crisis resulting from low birth rates, poor medical care and a potentially explosive Aids situation". Russia also borders an "unstable region" in the Caucasus and Central Asia, "the effects of which - Muslim extremism, terrorism and endemic conflict - are likely to continue spilling over into Russia". The report also largely en dorses forecasts that by 2020 China’s gross domestic product will exceed that of individual western economic powers except for the US. India’s GDP will have overtaken or be overtaking European economies. Because of the sheer size of China’s and India’s populations their standard of living need not approach European and western levels to become important economic powers. The economies of other developing countries, such as Brazil, could surpass all but the largest European countries by 2020.

5. Soft power gone – nationalist politics causes EU collapse

Kupchan ’11 (Charles A., professor of international affairs at Georgetown University and a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “As Nationalism Rises, Will the European Union Fall?” http://www.cfr.org/europerussia/nationalism-rises-european-union-fall/p22856. August 29, 2010)
The European Union is dying--not a dramatic or sudden death, but one so slow and steady that we may look across the Atlantic one day soon and realize that the project of European integration that we've taken for granted over the past half-century is no more. Europe's decline is partly economic. The financial crisis has taken a painful toll on many E.U. members, and high national debts and the uncertain health of the continent's banks may mean more trouble ahead. But these woes pale in comparison with a more serious malady: From London to Berlin to Warsaw, Europe is experiencing a renationalization of political life, with countries clawing back the sovereignty they once willingly sacrificed in pursuit of a collective ideal. For many Europeans, that greater good no longer seems to matter. They wonder what the union is delivering for them, and they ask whether it is worth the trouble. If these trends continue, they could compromise one of the most significant and unlikely accomplishments of the 20th century: an integrated Europe, at peace with itself, seeking to project power as a cohesive whole. The result would be individual nations consigned to geopolitical irrelevance--and a United States bereft of a partner willing or able to shoulder global burdens. The erosion of support for a unified Europe is infecting even Germany, whose obsession with banishing the national rivalries that long subjected the continent to great-power wars once made it the engine of integration. Berlin's recent reluctance to rescue Greece during its financial tailspin--Chancellor Angela Merkel resisted the bailout for months -- breached the spirit of common welfare that is the hallmark of a collective Europe. Only after the Greek crisis threatened to engulf the euro zone did Merkel override popular opposition and approve the loan. Voters in local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia promptly punished her party, delivering the Christian Democrats their most severe defeat of the postwar era. Such stinginess reflects the bigger problem: Germany's pursuit of its national interest is crowding out its enthusiasm for the E.U. In one of the few signs of life in the European project, member states last fall embraced the Lisbon Treaty, endowing the union with a presidential post, a foreign policy czar and a diplomatic service. But then Berlin helped select as the E.U.'s president and foreign policy chief Herman van Rompuy and Catherine Ashton, respectively, low-profile individuals who would not threaten the authority of national leaders. Even Germany's courts are putting the brakes on the E.U., last year issuing a ruling that strengthened the national Parliament's sway over European legislation. This renationalization of politics has been occurring across the E.U. One of the starker signs of trouble came in 2005, when Dutch and French voters rejected a constitutional treaty that would have consolidated the E.U.'s legal and political character. The Lisbon Treaty, its watered-down successor, was rejected by the Irish in 2008. They changed their minds in 2009, but only after ensuring that the treaty would not jeopardize national control of taxation and military neutrality. And in Britain, May elections brought to power a coalition dominated by the Conservative Party, which is well known for its Europhobia. Elsewhere, right-wing populism is on the upswing--a product, primarily, of a backlash against immigration. This hard-edged nationalism aims not only at minorities, but also at the loss of autonomy that accompanies political union. For example, Hungary's Jobbik Party, which borders on xenophobic, won 47 seats in elections this year--up from none in 2006. Even in the historically tolerant Netherlands, the far-right Party for Freedom recently won more than 15 percent of the vote, giving it just seven fewer seats than the leading party. If these obstacles to a stable union weren't sobering enough, in July, the E.U.'s rotating presidency fell to Belgium--a country whose Dutch-speaking Flemish citizens and French-speaking Walloons are so divided that, long after elections in June, a workable governing coalition has yet to emerge. It speaks volumes that the country now guiding the European project suffers exactly the kind of nationalist antagonism that the E.U. was created to eliminate. The renationalization of European politics is a product, first and foremost, of generational change. For Europeans who came of age during World War II or the Cold War, the E.U. is an escape route from a bloody past. Not so for younger Europeans: A recent poll revealed that French citizens over 55 are almost twice as likely to see the E.U. as a guarantee of peace as those under 36. No wonder new European leaders view the E.U.'s value through cold cost-benefit calculations, not as an article of faith. Meanwhile, the demands of the global marketplace, coupled with the financial crisis, are straining Europe's welfare state. As retirement ages rise and benefits dwindle, the E.U. is often presented as a scapegoat for new hardships. In France, for example, anti-Europe campaigns have focused ire on the E.U.'s "Anglo-Saxon" assault on social welfare and on the "Polish plumber" who takes local jobs because of the open European labor market. The E.U.'s rapid enlargement to the east and south has further sapped it of life. Absent the cozy feel the smaller union had before the Berlin Wall came down, its original members have turned inward. The newer members from Central Europe, who have enjoyed full sovereignty only since communism's collapse, are not keen to give it away. As Poland's late president, Lech Kaczynski, put it soon after taking office in 2005, "What interests the Poles is the future of Poland and not that of the E.U." European participation in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan has added to the weariness. In Germany, roughly two-thirds of the public opposes having German troops in Afghanistan -- not good news for an E.U. intended to project a united voice on the global stage. Although giving Europe more geopolitical heft is one of the union's raisons d'être, this task has no constituency; these distant wars, coupled with plunging defense expenditures mainly due to the economic downturn, are tempering the appetite for new burdens. "The E.U. is now just trying to keep the machine going," a member of the European Parliament told me recently. "The hope is to buy enough time for new leaders to emerge who will reclaim the project." Buying time may be the best the E.U. can do for now, but its slide is poised to continue, with costs even for those outside Europe. The Obama administration has already expressed frustration with an E.U. whose geopolitical profile is waning. As Defense Secretary Robert Gates complained in February to a gathering of NATO officials, "The demilitarization of Europe--where large swaths of the general public and political class are averse to military force and the risks that go with it--has gone from a blessing in the 20th century to an impediment to achieving real security and lasting peace in the 21st." As the United States tries to dig itself out of debt and give its armed forces a breather, it will increasingly judge its allies by what they bring to the table. In Europe's case, the offering is small and shrinking. Europe is hardly headed back to war; its nations have lost their taste for armed rivalries. Instead, less dramatically but no less definitively, European politics will become less European and more national, until the E.U. becomes a union in name only. This may seem no great loss to some, but in a world that sorely needs the E.U.'s aggregate will, wealth and muscle, a fragmented and introverted Europe would constitute a historical setback. Six decades ago, Jean Monnet, Robert Schuman and Konrad Adenauer were Europe's founding fathers. Today, the E.U. needs a new generation of leaders who can breathe life into a project that is perilously close to expiring. For now, they are nowhere to be found.

Directory: files
files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2
files -> Integer programming and game theory
files -> 4 Integer Programming
files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. Objective
files -> Pop Warner History
files -> North Carolina Inclusion Initiative Mapping Where Children with ieps are Being Served Purpose
files -> Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Program Data: Standard 1 Exhibit 4d
files -> Hanban – asia society confucius classrooms network 2010 request for proposal
files -> Northern England’s set-jetting locations

Download 1.74 Mb.

Share with your friends: