Space Debris Neg- wave 1
Download 352.1 Kb.
|
- Navigate this page:
- Risk is high—flares are unpredictable and can cause massive destruction
- Alt cause to satellite knock out – solar storms The Herald 11
EXT: 1NC #3Alt cause—2013 solar flares will destroy communication and GPS satellites Barlow, 6/23 [Tom Barlow, “Huge Solar Flares Could Spell Catastrophe for Earth,” 6/23/11, http://blogs.forbes.com/tombarlow/2011/06/23/huge-solar-flares-could-spell-catastrophe-for-earth/] Power lines and transformers fry across the nation. Communication satellites are knocked out, the GPS network no longer works, and even the space station is sucked into Earth’s gravity well. Americans are forced to go months without power, without water systems, without television or cell phones or other forms of communication. Sound like a disaster? You bet, but the culprit isn’t terrorists or hurricanes or a meteorite; it’s our old friend, the sun. Scientists are gathered this week to discuss a relatively underappreciated threat to our well-being, the impact a huge solar flare (also known as a solar mass ejection (SME) or solar electromagnetic pulse (EMP)) directed at Earth could wreak upon our modern technology. How likely is this threat? Michael Hesse, Chief of the Space Weather Laboratory at NASA, said there are “No good statistics to tell you how often these things happen; maybe happening once in a hundred years, once in two hundred years…but it’s not impossible.” He’s “not going to bed worrying every night that the next morning I’d have this event. But if it were to happen the impacts would be catastrophic.” Such an event did take place as recently as September 1, 1859. Called the Carrington Event, this CME knocked out telegraph lines across the country and the Northern Lights were seen as far south as Cuba. A similar event only a third of this magnitude knocked out the Quebec electrical system for nine hours in 1989. Of course, in 1859 there were few electrical devices in operation, the telegraph being the most notable. Today, our society is networked by the power grid, satellites and phone lines, all vulnerable to the impact of a large electromagnetic storm. Hesse said that, “In all likelihood the space radiation associated with that event would knock out a large amount of our satellite infrastructure. You would see gigantic communications outages, of course.” “Anything over the horizon you use radio for or radar for would be disturbed for extended periods of time,” he explained, and we could, “lose low earth orbit because the atmosphere could get heated and expand outward and cause enormous drag that could seriously imperil the space station and degrade the orbit to the point that it would be hazardous.” He believes that such an event “…would probably take down our power grid, destroy transformers and equipment.” The most fundamental impact of such an event, he said, was that we could face no power for a very long time. (Despite what the movie 2012 would have you believe, Hesse dismissed the connection between CMEs and earthquakes.) We can’t stop such an event, but Hesse and others are working toward gaining the ability to predict such events early enough that networks can be shut down and minimize damage. He explained that it takes about 20 hours for such an EMP to reach Earth from the sun, giving us a window to react and prepare if the warning is timely enough. He credits NASA’s experimental probes for providing much of the data to date that has helped us understand the sun’s behavior, but couldn’t project just when a working early warning system might be devised. He did voice a concern that there is no funding to date to create and maintain satellites for this on an operational basis. Sunspot activity waxes and wanes on the sun in a 11-year cycle, and we are approaching the peak of sunspot activity, probably reaching it in 2013, according to Hesse. He said that there is some evidence that large CME events happen more frequently on the declining side of the peak. Risk is high—flares are unpredictable and can cause massive destruction Phillips, 6/22—author of spaceweather.com, PhD [Dr. Tony Phillips, “Getting ready for the next big solar storm,” 6/22/11, http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-06-ready-big-solar-storm.html] (PhysOrg.com) -- In Sept. 1859, on the eve of a below-average solar cycle, the sun unleashed one of the most powerful storms in centuries. The underlying flare was so unusual, researchers still aren't sure how to categorize it. The blast peppered Earth with the most energetic protons in half-a-millennium, induced electrical currents that set telegraph offices on fire, and sparked Northern Lights over Cuba and Hawaii. This week, officials have gathered at the National Press Club in Washington DC to ask themselves a simple question: What if it happens again? "A similar storm today might knock us for a loop," says Lika Guhathakurta, a solar physicist at NASA headquarters. "Modern society depends on high-tech systems such as smart power grids, GPS, and satellite communications--all of which are vulnerable to solar storms." She and more than a hundred others are attending the fifth annual Space Weather Enterprise Forum—"SWEF" for short. The purpose of SWEF is to raise awareness of space weather and its effects on society especially among policy makers and emergency responders. Attendees come from the US Congress, FEMA, power companies, the United Nations, NASA, NOAA and more. As 2011 unfolds, the sun is once again on the eve of a below-average solar cycle—at least that’s what forecasters are saying. The "Carrington event" of 1859 (named after astronomer Richard Carrington, who witnessed the instigating flare) reminds us that strong storms can occur even when the underlying cycle is nominally weak. In 1859 the worst-case scenario was a day or two without telegraph messages and a lot of puzzled sky watchers on tropical islands. In 2011 the situation would be more serious. An avalanche of blackouts carried across continents by long-distance power lines could last for weeks to months as engineers struggle to repair damaged transformers. Planes and ships couldn’t trust GPS units for navigation. Banking and financial networks might go offline, disrupting commerce in a way unique to the Information Age. According to a 2008 report from the National Academy of Sciences, a century-class solar storm could have the economic impact of 20 hurricane Katrinas. Alt cause to satellite knock out – solar storms The Herald 11; (“Expert warns of risk from new solar storms” February 22, 2011 Tuesday; Lexis) THE world needs to wake up to the threat of solar storms with the potential to cause a trillion-pound technological meltdown, the Government s chief scientific adviser has warned. A 10-year lull in the sun s activity had coincided with the growth of vulnerable satellite-based technologies such as the internet and GPS, said Professor Sir John Beddington. But the sun was due to become more turbulent as it approaches the next solar maximum peak in its activity cycle in around 2013. Experts fear a perfect solar storm blasting the Earth with energetic particles could have a catastrophic impact on communications and commerce, with losses estimated at up to two trillion dollars (£1.23 trillion). It is vital that Governments and agencies work together to minimise the danger, said Sir John. He told a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington DC: The issue of space weather has got to be taken seriously. We ve had a relatively quiet period of space weather. We can t expect that quiet period to continue. At the same time over that period the potential vulnerability of our systems has increased dramatically, whether it is the smart grid in our electricity systems or the ubiquitous use of GPS in just about everything we use these days. Solar storms typically begin with a flare on the surface of the sun generating a radiation burst that can knock out communications. This is followed by waves of sub-atomic particles and electrified gas which can cripple satellites and trip out power grids. Directory: files files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2 files -> Integer programming and game theory files -> 4 Integer Programming files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. Objective files -> Pop Warner History files -> North Carolina Inclusion Initiative Mapping Where Children with ieps are Being Served Purpose files -> Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Program Data: Standard 1 Exhibit 4d files -> Hanban – asia society confucius classrooms network 2010 request for proposal files -> Northern England’s set-jetting locations Download 352.1 Kb. Share with your friends:
|