Document name wecc scenarios



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Document name

WECC Scenarios

Category

( ) Regional reliability standard

( ) Regional criteria

( ) Policy

( ) Guideline

(X) Report or other

( ) Charter



Document date

March 29, 2013

Adopted/approved by




Date adopted/approved




Custodian (entity responsible for maintenance and upkeep)




Stored/filed

Physical location:

Web URL: http://www.wecc.biz/committees/BOD/TEPPC/External/WECC_Scenarios.docx



Previous name/number

(if any)

Status

( ) in effect

( ) usable, minor formatting/editing required

( ) modification needed

( ) superseded by _____________________

( ) other _____________________________

( ) obsolete/archived)





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WECC Long-Term Planning Scenario Report

In support of the Regional Transmission Expansion Planning Project

By

Scenario Planning Steering Group

Western Electricity Coordinating Council

March 29, 2013
Table of Contents




Introduction 3

Scenario Background 3

Focus Question for the Scenarios 4

Chart 1: Focus Question to Anchor the Revision of the Current WECC Scenarios 5

A Consistent Set of Key Drivers of Change 5

Key Scenario Drivers, Predetermined Elements and Uncertainty 5

The Organizing Scenario Matrix 6

The Organizing Scenario Matrix 7

Chart 2: WECC Transmission Scenario Matrix 7

Point of View of the Scenarios 8

Policy Implications for the Scenarios 8

Chart 3: Policy Themes by Scenario Matrix 9

Modeling and the Transmission Planning Results for the Scenarios 10

Scenario One: Focus on Economic Recovery 11

Key Scenario Metrics in 2032: 11

Beginning Years: 2013-2017/The Dark Before the Dawn 12

Figure 1.2: Share of Energy Used by Appliances and Consumer Electronics Increases in U.S. Homes 14

Figure 1.3: The Smart Grid” at a Crossroad 16

Middle Years: 2018-2022/A New Day Dawning 16

Figure 1.4: Sales of light-duty vehicles using non-gasoline technologies by fuel type, 2010, 2020, and 2035 (million vehicles sold) 18

Final Years: 2023-2033/A Bright New Day 19

Scenario One - Overview by Key Driver 23

Scenario One – Overview of Modeling Parameters 27

Scenario One - Policy Themes 29

Scenario Two: Focus on Clean Energy 31

Key Scenario Metrics in 2032: 31

Figure 2.1: Guess What: Falling Solar Costs, Rising Retail Rates 33

Figure 2.2: Announced and Projected Coal Retirements by NERC Region 36

Middle Years: 2018-2022/Tension Passing Through the Inflection Point Toward Sustainability 37

Table 2.2: Description of Brookings-Battelle Clean Economy Categories (Energy, Energy Efficiency and Renewables) 39

Figure 2.3: The World Bank on Climate Change 42

Final Years: 2023-2033/The Lumpy Implementation of the Advanced and Clean Technology Power Industry 43

Scenario Two - Overview by Key Driver 46

Scenario Two – Overview of Modeling Parameters 49

Scenario Two - Policy Themes 51

Scenario Three: Focus on Short-Term Consumer Costs 53

 Beginning Years: 2013-2017/The Doldrums Don’t End 54

Middle Years: 2018-2022/Struggling to Get on Track 56

Final Years: 2023-2033/Same as it Ever Was 58

Figure 3.2: “Defying the Odds: Virginia Brings a New Coal-Fired Plant Online” 60

Scenario Three - Overview by Key Driver 62

Scenario Three – Overview of Modeling Parameters 64

Scenario Three – Policy Themes 67

Scenario Four: Focus on Long-Term Societal Costs 69

Beginning Years: 2013-2017/The Rise of Smart Energy 70

Figure 4.1: Shale Gas Technically Recoverable Resources and Cumulative Production 72

Figure 4.2: 2010 Annual Solar Megawatts Ranking by Utility Company 74

Figure 4.3: High Level Smart Grids Domains 75

Middle Years: 2018-2022/The Age of Self-Sufficiency 77

Ending Years: 2023 to 2033/The Re-Optimization of Electric Power 79

Scenario Four - Overview by Key Driver 83

Scenario Four – Overview of Modeling Parameters 86

Scenario Four - Policy Themes 88

Scenario 4: Focus on Long-Term Societal Costs 88

Using the Scenarios for Long Term Thinking and Early Indicators 90

Long-Term Use of the Scenarios 90

Chart 4: Long-Term Movement 90

From SW to NW 91

From NW to NE 91

From NE back to NW 91

From SW to SE 91

From SE to NE 92

Early Indicators for Long-Term Transmission Planning 92

Early Indicators for Scenario 1: Focus on Economic Growth 93

Early Indicators for Scenario 2: Focus on Clean Energy 93

Early Indicators for Scenario 3: Focus on Short-Term Consumer Costs 94

Early Indicators for Scenario 4: Focus on Long-Term Societal Costs 94

Appendix I: Scenario Narrative EPS 95

Scenario 1: 95

Scenario 2: 96

Scenario 3: 96

Scenario 4: 97

Appendix II: Comparative Scenario Summary 98

Appendix III: Policy Theme Table 99

Appendix IV: Annotated Policy Theme Table 101





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