International bank for reconstruction and development international development association international finance corporation



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20.Risks to CPS Program


The risks identified in the CPS remain valid for the balance of the strategy period but with heightened following risks: protracted security challenges, weak federal/state collaboration, deteriorating macroeconomic framework, fragile consensus on key reforms, and ineffective implementation capacity. As depicted in Table 4, the overall risk rating for the CPS program is high.

Protracted security challenges: In the NE, where the transition from conflict to peace remains particularly fragile, the implementation of the CPS program is expected to face a number of challenges. The CPS implementation involves many nonconventional stakeholders with different priorities and interests, and coordination among these entities will be extremely difficult. This risk will be mitigated through regular information sharing processes among stakeholders, including counselling and awareness sessions, to apprise them of the available support under the CPS program, including improved governance and service delivery as important components of long-term development in the region. The Bank foresees difficulties in direct monitoring and supervision in the field and other security-related risks in the NE, which may interfere with the achievement of intended outcomes. Despite these risks, the flexible design of the CPS support and experience in quick mobilization will allow adjustments in response to the changing environment. The GoN will ensure that repatriation of IDPs is announced only for areas cleared by the army and declared safe.

Federal/State collaboration: Nigeria’s overall stability, prosperity and business environment is determined at the state level as much as by national-level decision making. Accordingly, progress in implementing the CPS program could be impeded by weak collaboration between the federal and state governments. In the health sector, this risk is being mitigated by the Performance for Results approach, which aims to stimulate improved delivery of health services at the state level through federal transfers. In the agriculture, water, environment, and social protection sectors, the CPS program seeks to foster platforms for policy/results dialogue between the federal and state governments. In the NE, the RPBA is establishing itself as a collaborative and organizing platform for joint federal and state efforts to provide support. In the macro-economic category, the CPS program includes knowledge support to federal/state dialogue and efforts to improve fiscal sustainability of states, as well as starting to prepare performance based lending support to that end (FY18).

Macro-economic framework and consensus on key reforms: There is a risk that the DPF may not materialize if the GoN is unable to put together a strong enough program to underpin the operation or if the macro policy framework remains inadequate. The risks of a worsening macroeconomic situation, especially with regard to fiscal sustainability, external imbalances, financial sector vulnerabilities, and sub-national fiscal sustainability, could make it difficult to attain the high-level strategic objectives of growth and job creation by negatively impacting public and private sector investment and consumption. These risks will be mitigated by a joint engagement with the IMF in fiscal policy planning, along with lending and non-lending support to implementing reforms in fiscal management, public sector governance and financial sector supervision. The current macroeconomic challenges are threatening the health of the banking sector and thus may impair the ability of IFC’s commercial bank clients to deliver the development outcomes.

Ineffective implementation capacity: Weak capacity, especially at the sub-national level, and institutional weaknesses continue to pose challenges to successful implementation of the program. This reconfirms that capacity and institution building take time and call for sustained engagement. The Bank will continue providing knowledge and learning support to respective project teams, whilst reinforcing institutional and capacity building support to improve expenditure effectiveness. The Bank will also mobilize trust fund resources for capacity building efforts in growth and competitiveness categories. In addition, to address the potentially fiduciary risks, an enhanced accountability framework has been put in place. It introduces a Fiduciary Alert System Tracker (FAST), which enables the Bank to flag fiduciary issues to the highest level of government in a timely and simplified manner.

Table . Summary of Risks to WBG Program



________________________________________________________________________

Risk categories Ratings

1. Political and governance S

2. Macroeconomic H

3. Sector strategies and policies H

4. Technical design of project or program M

5. Institutional capacity for implementation and sustainability S

6. Fiduciary M

7. Environment and social S

8. Stakeholders S

9. Other (security/conflict) H



Overall High

______________________________________________________________________________

Ratings are high (H), substantial (S), moderate (M), low (L). The risk assessment applies to the remainder of the CPS period and is based on the Systematic Operations Risk-Rating Tool.



21.Annexes

Annex 1. Updated CPS Results Matrix (basis for Completion and Learning Review self-evaluation)




Indicator

Unit of Measurement

Baseline Value

End Target Value

WBG Program

Strategic Cluster 1: Federally-led Structural Reform Agendas for Growth and Jobs

Engagement Area: Power Sector Reform

Outcome 1: Increased power generation and transmission capacity

1.1: 16 percent increase in generation capacity supported by the WBG interventions by 2017.

Megawatt

6000 in 2012

6960 by 2017

PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • Nigeria Power Sector Guarantees Project (P120207)

  • IFC Azura Edo IPP (32859)

Pipeline

  • Power Sector Guarantees Project II (P155000)

1.2: 8 percent increase in transmission capacity.

Mega Volt Amp

8588 MVA on 330kV level in 2013

9275 MVA on 330kV level in 2017

PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • Nigeria Electricity and Gas Improvement Project (P106172)

Pipeline

  • Nigeria Transmission Project (P146330)

Outcome 2: Improved the efficiency of electricity delivery

2.1: Aggregate Technical and Commercial losses (AT and C) of privatized distribution companies (DISCOs) supported by the WBG. EBP reduced by 8 percentage points from 25% in 2013 to 17% in 2017.

Percentage

45% in 2014

37% in 2017

PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • Nigeria Electricity and Gas Improvement Project (P106172)

Outcome 3: Improved access to modern lighting for the base-of-the –pyramid through supporting the value chain of procuring and distributing solar products such as lanterns and cook-stoves

3.1: 1 million solar lanterns distributed.

Million

0 in 2013

0.74 in 2017

PROJECTS:

Ongoing




3.2: 5 million people with improved energy services (assumes industry estimate of 5 people per household).

Million

0 in 2013

3.7 in 2017

PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • IFC Advisory Services – Lighting Nigeria Project

3.3: 100,000 tCO2 being GHG avoided (Key assumptions: (i) kerosene lamp emission factor (t/Coe/ltr) =0.0026 (ii) kerosene consumption per year for a lantern = 55 ltrs (iii) solar lantern to kerosene lamp displacement factor = 70%).

Metric tons CO2/Year

0 in 2013

74,000 in 2017

PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • IFC Advisory Services – Lighting Nigeria Project

Engagement Area: Agriculture Productivity and Climate Change (Resilience)

Outcome 4: Improved access of small farmers to inputs and technology, and increase in their average income

4.1: Increased effectiveness of publicly supported seed and fertilizer distribution systems as measured by the increased number of farmers benefiting from those programs.

Million

1.2 in 2012

5 in 2017

PROJECTS:

Closed during the CPS Period

  • Agriculture DPO 1 (P130012)

Ongoing

  • Fadama 3 (P096572)

  • Commercial Agriculture Development Project (P096648)

  • West Africa Agriculture Productivity Project (P117148)

4.2: Additional 20,000 hectares of improved irrigation in North and North-West areas.

Hectare

26,000 ha in 2014

46,000 ha in 2017

PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • Transforming Irrigation Management in Nigeria Project (P123112)

  • Fadama 3 (P096572)

4.3: Rural households in supported Fadama areas reporting 40% increase in average household income.

Naira

184,240 in 2013

257,937in 2016

PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • Fadama 3 (P096572)

Outcome 5: Improved horizontal coordination of small farmers

5.1: Number of farmer associations and or marketing cooperatives supported in (projects) intervention areas.

Number

0 in 2013

6,000 in 2017

PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • Fadama 3 (P096572)

  • Commercial Agriculture Development Project (P096648)

  • Growth and Employment (P103449)

Pipeline

  • Staple Crop Processing Zone Project (P148616)

Outcome 6: Improved road transportation connectivity of rural markets

6.1: Additional 2,000 km or rural roads rehabilitated and maintained in supported states.

Kilometer

0 in 2013

2,000 in 2017

PROJECTS:

Closed during the CPS period

  • Rural Access and Mobility Project 1 (P072644)

Ongoing

  • Rural Access and Mobility Project 2 (P095003)

  • Commercial Agriculture Development Project (P096648)

  • Fadama 3 (P096572)

6.2: Additional 2 million people in rural areas gained access to an all-season road in supported states.

Million

0 in 2013

2 in 2017

PROJECTS:

Closed during the CPS period

  • Rural Access and Mobility Project 1 (P072644)

Ongoing

  • Rural Access and Mobility Project 2 (P095003)

  • Commercial Agriculture Development Project (P096648)

Outcome 7: Enhanced country’s preparedness to respond to natural hazards, climate risks and natural disasters (resilience)

7.1: # ha of land treated for erosion.

Hectare

0 in 2013

2,800 in 2017

PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • Erosion and Watershed Management Project (P124905)

7.2: % of upgraded or new HydroMet stations providing data that are published annually and uploaded to the web.

Percentage

0 in 2013

60 in 2017

PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • Erosion and Watershed Management Project (P124905)

Engagement Area: Financing For Development

Outcome 8: Expanded financing opportunities for SMEs

8.1: Additional 60,000 loans outstanding to SMEs by 2017 by IFC.

Number

0 in 2013

60,000 in 2017
PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • IFC – GTB

  • IFC – Diamond Bank

  • IFC – Access Bank

  • IFC – Ecobank

  • IFC – FCMB

8.2: Additional 2 million micro entrepreneurs provided with financial services by IFC.

Million

0 in 2013

2 in 2017

PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • IFC – Access Bank

  • IFC – Accion

  • IFC – Diamond Bank

  • IFC – Microcred

  • IFC – Lapo

  • IFC – Grooming

Outcome 9: Improved institutional infrastructure for long term financing

9.1. New wholesale financial institutions are established and operational. The institutions are the DBN and Nigeria Mortgage Refinance Company (NRMC).

Yes/No

No in 2014

Yes in 2017

PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • Development Finance Project (P146319)

  • Housing Finance Development Project (P131973)

ASA:

Delivered

  • Boosting Financial Inclusion in Nigeria (P147939)

  • Inclusive Markets (P147941)

  • Investment Climate Assessment (P147940)

Ongoing

  • Programmatic Approach to Financial Sector Development (FY16-FY18)

Outcome 10: Improved financial infrastructure

10.1: Value of financing facilitated through WBG-supported financial infrastructure.

Million

0 in 2013

1,634

PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • Nigeria Credit Reporting Project (IFC)

10.2: Value of securities transactions.

Million

0 in 2013

332

PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • Nigeria – STCR (IFC)

Strategic Cluster 2: Quality, Effectiveness and Efficiency of Social Service Delivery at State Level for Greater Social Inclusion

Engagement Area: Strengthening Community Driven Mechanisms for Social Inclusion, and Effectiveness of Social Protection Programs

Outcome 11: Improved targeting of social protection and increased employment readiness of youth in supported states.

11.1: Improved targeting of social protection programs in states as measured by the # of states using the unified registry of beneficiaries and common targeting mechanism.

Number

0 in 2013

10 in 2017

PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • Youth Employment and Social Protection Project (P126964)

  • Community and Social Development (P090644)

  • National Social Safety Nets Project (P151488)

ASA:

Delivered

  • Sharing Prosperity in Nigeria: An Analytical Work Program on Jobs and Social Protection (P146872)

  • Improving Governance in Social Sectors (P132571)

  • Poverty Work Program (P157742)

Ongoing

  • Programmatic Poverty Work (P160999)

  • Developing National Social Protection Platform (P154830)



11.2: Enhanced resilience of the youth participating in workfare programs in supported states as measured by the number of youths who received orientation and life skills training.

Number

0 in 2013

100,000 in 2017

PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • Youth Employment and Social Protection Project (P126964)

  • Community and Social Development (P090644)

  • National Social Safety Nets Project (P151488)

  • State Expenditure Effectiveness for Results (P121455)

11.3: Increased in % of poor beneficiaries (lowest quintiles) from targeted poor households receiving cash transfers.

Percentage

0 in 2013

40% by 2017

PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • Youth Employment and Social Protection Project (P126964)

  • National Social Safety Nets Project (P151488)

Outcome 12: Increased Access of Poor and Vulnerable to Social and Economic Services

12.1: 50 percent increase in the # of poor households with access to social and livelihood support services through community development plans in supported areas (baseline: 900,000 in 2012).

Number

900,000 in 2012

1,350,000

PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • Community and Social Development (P090644)




Engagement Area: Coverage and Quality of Health Services

Outcome 13: Improved coverage and quality of health service delivery

13.1: The share of child deliveries that are assisted by trained health personnel in 3 states increases to 43 % by 2017 (baseline: 33% in 2013; delivered by the results-based financing of health services in 3 states).

Percentage

33% in 2013

43% by 2017

PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • States Health Program Investment Project (P120798)

ASA:

Ongoing

  • Health Financing Systems Assessment (P159450)

  • HRITF Impact Evaluation (P128175)

  • Healthy Mothers and Healthy Babies (P152756)

Pipeline

  • Nigeria Demographics and Nutrition ASA

13.2: The share of children 12-23 months old who are fully immunized in 3 states increases to 45.4% by 2017.

Percentage

25.4% in 2013

45.4% by 2017

PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • States Health Program Investment Project (P120798)

13.3: % of under-5 children sleeping under insecticide treated net the night preceding the survey increased from 44.6 % in 2010 to 60%.

Percentage

44.6% in 2010

60% by 2017

PROJECTS:

Closed during the CPS period

  • Malaria Booster Project (P097921)

13.4: At least 80 % coverage with oral polio vaccine sustained in every state.


Percentage

December 2012, 90% coverage (8 endemic states average)

80% by 2017

PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • Polio Eradication Support (P130865)

13.5: 40,000 of pregnant women living with HIV who receive annually a complete course of antiretroviral prophylaxis to reduce the risk of mother to child transmission.

Number

26,133 in 2010

160,000 by 2017

PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • HIV/AIDS Program Development Project II (P102119)

13.6 Additional in- and out-patients in private hospital facilities to complement public healthcare delivery.

Patients

148,268 in 2013

2,000,000 by 2017

PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • IFC – Hygeia

Engagement Area: Efficiency, Equitable Access and Quality of Education Services

Outcome 14: Improved learning environment and management

14.1: 10,000 additional teachers in rural areas.

Number

31,243 in 2013, delivered by the results based financing of education services in 3 states

41,243 in 2017

PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • State Education program Investment Project (P122124)

14.2: 50% of supported schools demonstrate improvements in learning outcomes.

Number

4,000 supported schools in 2013, delivered by the results based financing of education services in 3 states

2000 schools improved

PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • State Education program Investment Project (P122124)

  • Lagos Eko Secondary Education Project (P106280)

ASA:

Delivered

  • Governance and Financing of Basic Education in Nigeria

  • Skills for Competitiveness and Employability (P148688)

14.3: Number of students at IFC-supported education institutions.

Number

3,850 in 2013

5,000 by 2017

IFC

Outcome 15: Strengthened responsiveness of public and private training institutions to skills demand

15.1: Increased # of states with approved Strategic Plan for improving quality and relevance of TVE (Baseline 4 in 2013; Target 10 by 2017).

Number

4 in 2013

10 by 2017

PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • State Education program Investment Project (P122124)

ASA:

Delivered

  • Skills for Competitiveness and Employability (P148688)

Engagement Area: Coverage and Efficiency of Water Supply Services

Outcome 16: Improved coverage and efficiency of water supply service in selected states

16.1: # of people with access to improved water supply increased by 4 million (baseline: 6.2 million in 2013, target: 7.5 million in 2017).

Million

6.2 in 2013

7.5 in 2017

PROJECTS:

Closed during the CPS period:

  • National Urban Water Sector Reform Project II (P071391)

Ongoing

  • National Urban Water Sector Reform Project III (P123513)

ASA:

Ongoing

Nigeria WASH Poverty Diagnostics (P158634)

16.2: Cost recovery for operation and maintenance increased in average by 25 percent in supported states by 2017.

Percentage

Lagos 25% in 2012; Cross River 50% in 2012

25 % increase on average

PROJECTS:

Closed during the CPS period:

  • National Urban Water Sector Reform Project II (P071391)

Ongoing

  • National Urban Water Sector Reform Project III (P123513)

ASA:

Delivered

  • State Water Agencies in Nigeria: A Performance Assessment – Economic Aspects of the Urban Water Sect (P150244)

Ongoing

  • Nigeria WASH Poverty Diagnostics (P158634)

Foundational/Cross Cutting Cluster 3: Governance and Public Sector Management

Outcome 17: Enhanced transparency on budget execution in targeted states and at Federal level

17.1: # states and the Federal GoN with an integrated fully functioning financial information system producing and publishing consolidated quarterly financial statements within 14 days of end of each fiscal quarter.

Number

0 in 2012

Federal GoN and 8 supported states in 2017)

PROJECTS:

Ongoing

  • Public Sector Governance Reform and Development Project (P097026)

  • State Employment and Expenditure Project (P121455)

  • Edo State Fiscal Improvement and Service Delivery Operation (P151480)

  • Lagos State DPO 3 (P151947)

17.2: # of states that have adopted procurement law increased from 24 in 2013 to 30 in 2017.

Number

24 in 2013

27 in 2017

17.3: % of public procurement contracts above threshold awarded through open competition in 12 states increased from 30 % in 2013 to 75% in 2017.

Percentage

30% in 2013

75% in 2017

Strategic Cluster 4: Restoring Macroeconomic Resilience

Outcome 18: Increased share of non-oil revenues in total revenues of the federal government

18.1: Non-oil revenue growth.

Percentage

2% between 2014 and 2015

8% between 2015 and 2017

PROJECTS:

Pipeline

  • Nigeria Federal Development Policy Financing (P155951)

ASA:

Ongoing

  • Tax Expenditure and VAT study

  • Growth and Trade Study (P158156)

  • Programmatic Approach to Financial Sector Development (FY16-FY18)

Pipeline

Outcome 19: Reduction in growth of high pressure recurrent expenditures

19.1: Real wage bill growth of the government at federal and state levels.

Percentage

3.4% between 2014 and 2015

0.5% between 2015 and 2017

PROJECTS:

Pipeline

  • Nigeria Federal Development Policy Financing (P155951)

ASA:

Pipeline

  • Public Expenditure Review (federal)

  • Systematic Country Diagnostic

  • Sub-national Fiscal Framework Policy Note and Peer Learning





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