Jackson Vanik will pass – bipartisan support of congress and interest groups gives momentum

A2: Won’t Pass/Kills Relations - Magnitsky Act

***read this to answer their Magnitsky will be attached arguments --- proves PC key to keep it watered down – solves relations***** If no PC means they’ll get the version which tanks relations and you can go for the relations impact separate to just this argumet

Obama’s capital critical to amending replacement bill to meet his needs and get GOP on board

Ivanov, 3/28

Eugene, Russia Beyond the Headlines “Open-mike diplomacy”, http://rbth.ru/articles/2012/03/28/open-mike_diplomacy_15197.html, BJM

President Obama is smart enough to understand that creating of a “civil society fund” won’t be sufficient to overcome the congressional resistance to repealing the JVA; some “replacement” to the amendment seems to be inevitable to strike a deal. Besides, while the administration is sincerely troubled with the implementation of S. 1039 in its current form, it doesn’t appear to have any ideological problem with the bill in general. Appearing before Senate Foreign Relation Committee on Feb. 28, 2012, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called again for lifting the JVA, but stressed the “need to send a clear, unmistakable message to Russia that we care deeply about rule of law in Russia.” Addressing directly Sen. Cardin, Clinton offered him to work together with the White House to achieve both goals, to which Cardin replied: “I look forward to working with you. I do think we can do both.” The simplest interpretation of this exchange would be that in the coming months, the White House will be pressing Cardin to modify the bill to make it palatable to the administration. With a new version of S. 1039 in hand, President Obama will try again to force the Republicans in Congress to repeal the JVA. If they refuse, Obama will portrait them as hostile to the interests of American business – and make it a November election issue.

Administrative pressure key to weaken impact of Magnitsky on Russia

Inside US Trade, 4/6, Lexis

“ADMINISTRATION WILLING TO NEGOTIATE ON MAGNITSKY BILL TO GET RUSSIA MFN”, BJM

Despite the new engagement, the administration continues to be opposed to the fundamental premise of the bill, which is to publicly name Russian officials who are barred from visiting the U.S. as a result of being involved in gross violations of human rights. However, there may be ways to make the legislation more palatable for administration officials, sources this week signaled. For instance, the administration officials and the two Senate members discussed the possibility that the bill could be altered so that it has global application, rather than being limited to human rights abusers in Russia. The co-sponsors of the bill would be open to this type of change, sources said. Such a change could have political benefits. For instance, it would soften the negative political repercussions that the bill could have with regards to Russia in particular. It could also help the bill to gain more supporters by broadening its scope, making it more attractive for members of Congress more concerned with human rights abuses in other countries.

Democrats will block Magnitsky

Cornwell, 3/27

Susan, Reuters, “UPDATE 1-US Senate panel may vote on Russian rights bill”, Factiva, BJM

Senator Benjamin Cardin introduced the Magnitsky bill in May of last year. A companion bill by Representative James McGovern, who like Cardin is a Democrat, was introduced in the House of Representatives. But the Obama administration did not embrace the legislation, and no action has been taken in Congress. U.S. envoy to Russia Michael McFaul recently noted that the United States had already imposed visa restrictions on some Russian officials believed to be involved in Magnitsky's death. This made the Magnitsky bill "redundant," McFaul said. "I'd like to try to put it (the bill) on a business meeting for when we return (from spring recess in mid-April), and we should aim to do it," Kerry said on Tuesday at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee meeting after the panel's ranking Republican, Richard Lugar, urged the committee to finally take up and vote on the legislation. Cardin, who is also a member of the committee, said he was trying to work out differences with the Obama administration on the bill. Cardin thought the best opportunity for passing it would be in conjunction with legislation on trade relations with Russia that is expected to come before Congress in the coming months. Russia's expected entry into the World Trade Organization requires Congress to vote to establish "permanent normal trade relations" with Russia by removing a Cold War-era human rights provision known as the Jackson-Vanik amendment that is inconsistent with WTO rules. But trying to link the Magnitsky bill to the trade legislation could run into trouble from other Democrats. Senator Max Baucus, the Democratic chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, told Reuters on Tuesday that he was inclined to oppose adding the Magnitsky bill to the trade legislation.

Obama keeping trade and human rights separate – will act on Jackson Vanik first

Butler, 3/27

Desmond, AP, “US trade upgrade may worsen relations with Russia”, http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5haRDYl_wxvUHQ2SGzhfBvaXW9z7g?docId=633ce0bb28a14581846aed8821fbce94, BJM

Obama administration officials are trying to keep the rights and trade measures apart. They are concerned about retaliation and do not want to aggravate relations further. Tensions have been growing over issues like missile defense and the international response to uprisings in Libya and Syria. But the U.S. still hopes for a degree of cooperation with Russia on other matters, such as stopping Iran's nuclear program. "We want to deal with trade issues in one sphere and democracy issues and human rights in another sphere," said Michael McFaul, the U.S. ambassador to Russia. The administration first wants to deal with trade. It has powerful allies in the U.S. business community supporting the repeal of Jackson-Vanik, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which calls the repeal its top trade priority this year. Russia soon will get more opportunities for international trade when it joins the World Trade Organization. If the U.S. doesn't repeal Jackson-Vanik, American companies could be at a competitive disadvantage.

Obama will remove harmful language

Butler, 3/27

Desmond, AP, “US trade upgrade may worsen relations with Russia”, http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5haRDYl_wxvUHQ2SGzhfBvaXW9z7g?docId=633ce0bb28a14581846aed8821fbce94, BJM

If Congress insists on linking the two bills, the administration wants to drop the provision calling for the naming of rights abusers. They argue that such disclosure would be inconsistent with State Department practice and counterproductive, because it would remove the uncertainty that human rights violators already face about whether they are on a U.S. blacklist.

Obama doesn’t believe linkage necessary

Frolov, 3/23

Vladamir, Russia Profile, “Russia Profile Weekly Experts Panel: Will Russia Graduate From the Jackson-Vanik Amendment?”, Factiva, BJM

U.S. Ambassador to Russia Mike McFaul and Assistant Secretary of State Phillip Gordon told Congress that the administration does not see the need for new human rights legislation on Russia, while the State Department has the authority to implement visa restrictions against foreign citizens suspected of human rights violations. McFaul said last week that the administration no longer believes any such "weird linkage" is necessary to accompany the repeal of Jackson-Vanik.

Obama spending capital to block Magnitsky

Washington Post 3-1 [U.S. must maintain way to press Putin regime on

human rights, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/us-must-maintain-pressure-on-russia-over-human-rights/2012/02/29/gIQAA0palR_story.html]

But a bipartisan coalition in Congress is concerned about removing this legacy of U.S. human rights advocacy without addressing the abuses of the Putin regime. Led in part by Sen. Benjamin L. Cardin (D-Md.), the group proposes to couple the Jackson-Vanik repeal with a measure that would require the administration to single out Russian officials responsible for gross human rights violations, ban them from traveling to the United States and freeze their assets. This measure could be as effective in its own way as Jackson-Vanik was on the Brezhnev-era Kremlin. Unlike their Soviet predecessors, senior Russian officials crave contact with the West; they vacation in Europe, send their children to U.S. colleges and, not infrequently, transfer their money through U.S. banks. A visa ban and asset freeze would be severe punishment for those involved in persecuting liberal politicians and journalists, or extorting money from U.S. companies. That’s why the Russian opposition strongly supports the measure. The Obama administration, on the other hand, is doing its best to kill it. In part it objects to Congress mandating foreign-policy actions. (In an attempt to defuse the issue, the State Department last year banned visas for a few dozen officials involved in one notorious human rights case, the death of lawyer Sergei Magnitsky, after whom the congressional legislation is named.) But the administration also worries excessively about provoking Mr. Putin. At a hearing Wednesday, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton told Mr. Cardin that she agreed “we should send a message about our continuing concern about human rights in Russia.” But the State Department proposes only a modest program of aid to Russian civil society groups.

And, Obama won’t agree to it

Martinez 3-14 [Ken, Moscow Times, McFaul Pushes for Trade Status,

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/mcfaul-pushes-for-trade-status/454625.html]
The Obama administration will not support any human rights or democracy legislation in exchange for Congress repealing the 1974 Jackson-Vanik amendment, the U.S. envoy to Russia said in Washington on the eve of a gathering of U.S. ambassadors Tuesday. U.S. Ambassador Michael McFaul spoke about relations with Russia, telling scholars at two think tanks that refusing to lift Jackson-Vanik would not make Russia more democratic. "If you don't believe me, ask Navalny," Ambassador Michael McFaul said, referring to an open letter published on the blog of Vladimir Milov, leader of the Democratic Choice movement, on Monday evening. The letter, which was also signed by Alexei Navalny and other key opposition figures in Moscow, urged the United States to remove the largely symbolic Cold War trade restriction. The signatories included organizers of demonstrations against President-elect Vladimir Putin who recognize the lagging enthusiasm of protesters but have found it nearly impossible to unite around a common policy agenda. The opposition leaders criticized U.S. politicians who argue that the repeal of the 1974 Jackson-Vanik amendment should be tied to improvements in human rights and that Putin and his "cronies" would be the main beneficiaries of a repeal. "Although there are obvious problems with democracy and human rights in modern Russia, the persistence on the books of the Jackson-Vanik amendment does not help to solve them at all," the letter said. The group of opposition leaders wrote that trade restrictions imposed under the amendment inhibit Russia's competitiveness on international markets, discourage diversification from oil and leave Russia "hanging in a petro-state limbo." They argue that this model of development prevents the emergence of an independent middle class that would demand democratic political changes in the future. "Jackson-Vanik is not helpful in any way — neither for the promotion of human rights and democracy in Russia, nor for the economic interests of its people," the group said. "[The amendment] is also a very useful tool for Mr Putin's anti-American propaganda machine," the writers added, "it helps him to depict the United States as hostile to Russia, using outdated Cold War tools to undermine Russia's international competitiveness." Some in Congress support linking the repeal of Jackson-Vanik to the Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law Accountability Act of 2011 — legislation proposed to promote human rights and named after an anti-corruption lawyer who died in prison after being beaten, tortured and denied medical care that experts said would have saved his life. The legislation would include visa bans and the freezing of financial assets for a wide range of officials involved in cases of human rights violations. The United States did quietly issue visa bans on dozens of Russian officials, but McFaul says going further would be counterproductive for the "reset" policy and offer no additional benefit. "We believe that we can ban people from coming to this country that do grossly abusive things regarding human rights. And it was strengthened by a human rights executive order last August that we took to give additional authorities. So from our point of view, this legislation is redundant to what we're already doing," McFaul said at an event on Capitol Hill organized by the Foreign Policy Initiative. McFaul, former National Security Council senior director for Russia and a key architect of the administration's reset policy, said repealing the amendment is the administration's top trade priority for 2012 and that he sees no reason for it not to happen. "Jackson-Vanik from our position is a total no-brainer. There's no upside to holding onto Jackson-Vanik right now. Zero. And viewed in human rights terms, there's no upside," the ambassador said.

Obama key to preventing GOP from linking Magnitsky bill to PNTR --- which will destroy bilateral cooperation – this answers their Ros-Leithen argument

Washington Post, 2/23 (“Baucus ends Russia trip as trade debate looms Cornyn places hold on Lippert over Taiwan jets,” 2/23/2012, Factiva)
Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.) is on his way back from Russia after meeting with outgoing President Dmitry Medvedev, just months before a congressional debate over whether to establish permanent normalized trade relations with Moscow. The visit was carefully coordinated with the Obama administration, according to an aide to Baucus, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee. Baucus is anticipating a debate over granting Russia permanent normalized trade relations (PNTR) status - which would also require the repeal of the 1974 Jackson-Vanik amendment - sometime this spring or summer. By then, Russia will be a full member of the World Trade Organization, and U.S. companies would be at a disadvantage in doing business in Russia if the PNTR issue is not resolved, according to Baucus. "Expanding trade with Russia could mean billions of dollars of new opportunities for American businesses, ranchers and farmers and create thousands of jobs here at home. But Russia has to play by the rules, and having Russia in the WTO will help to make that happen," the senator said in a statement. PNTR status, formerly known as most-favored-nation status, is a legal trade designation that one country grants to another to ensure that the recipient country receives terms equal to or better than those of any other trading partner. Russia has been denied permanent status due to the Jackson-Vanik measure but has received presidential waivers annually since 2005. The Baucus camp was keen to stress that the focus of the senator's trip went well beyond economic access for American companies, noting that he met with democracy, human rights and environmental activists - as well as with leading transparency and anti-corruption advocates. Some GOP lawmakers want to link the issues of human rights and corruption in Russia to the granting of PNTR status. Those lawmakers are pushing for passage of the Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law Accountability Act of 2011, named for the anti-corruption lawyer who was allegedly tortured and died in a Russian prison two years ago. These Republicans - including Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (Fla.), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee - want passage of the Magnitsky bill to be the cost of repealing the 1974 Jackson-Vanik amendment. The administration would prefer not to link Magnitsky to this trade status, because it would prompt the Russians to take retaliatory measures against the United States in other areas of bilateral cooperation. Moscow staunchly opposes the Magnitsky bill. In fact, the Russian government and is moving forward with the prosecution of Magnitsky on criminal tax charges, even though he is dead. Baucus's home state of Montana is a major beef exporter, and Russia is the fifth-largest importer of American beef.

Administration is addressing human rights concerns

Inside U.S. Trade, 2/24 (“BAUCUS MEETS WITH MEDVEDEV, RUSSIAN OFFICIALS AHEAD OF MFN DEBATE,” 2/24/2012, Factiva)

***Philip Gordon is the Assistant Secretary of State

Gordon said he expects that members of Congress will also insist on some human rights-related trade-off for the lifting of Jackson-Vanik. But, according to a transcript of his remarks, he said the administration is "in a pretty good place in being able to say what we are doing, what we have done on that front, so that any Senator who wants to feel comfortable that we're not sweeping democracy and human rights under the carpet can know that's the case," he said.

Obama’s engagement is key --- it’s a priority but the vote will be a heavy lift

Barkley, 2/17 (Tom, Dow Jones Global FX & Fixed Income News, 2/17/2012, “UPDATE: Sen Baucus Hopes To Lift Trade Restrictions On Russia By End Summer –Aide,” Factiva)
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Sen. Max Baucus (D., Mont.), who as chairman of the Finance Committee leads on trade issues, heads to Russia on a fact-finding mission with the aim of lifting trade restrictions before the country is expected to join the World Trade Organization this summer. Baucus plans to meet with President Dmitry Medvedev, as well as Russia's trade and foreign ministers, to prepare for a difficult debate that stands to broaden far beyond trade to address ongoing concerns about the former Cold War foe's actions on Iran, Syria and human rights. The goal is to restore "permanent normal trade relations" before the accession, already approved by WTO members, goes into effect so that U.S. companies aren't at a competitive disadvantage. That will require revoking restrictions in place since 1974 under a measure called Jackson-Vanik, which effectively denied the Soviet Union permanent normal trade status due to past emigration restrictions. "We're certainly viewing August, potentially even earlier, as the deadline for Russia to get in, and that's the deadline by which U.S. companies will start to lose out to our competitors," a Baucus aide said in an interview. "So we would very much like to get it done by the end of the summer." U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk has also set his sights on lifting the restrictions by summer's end, expressing confidence that lawmakers won't want to hurt U.S. exporters in order to send a message to Moscow. The administration has picked up its effort to build support for the measure, most notably with Russian trade getting a mention in President Barack Obama's State of the Union address last month. "We're gearing up for an engagement with the Hill," Philip Gordon, assistant secretary of State for European and Eurasian affairs, told the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia on Friday. But Gordon said that while it is clearly in the U.S. interest to lift the restrictions, "you just can't be sure" that logic will prevail in Congress. Raising the possibility that lawmakers will make some demands on the human rights issue in return for repealing Jackson-Vanik, he said the administration is taking appropriate action on that front. But he added, "We'll see what they demand." There has been a recent push by Sen. Ben Cardin (D., Md.) and other lawmakers to incorporate measures from a recent bill he introduced, which would impose a travel ban and possible asset freeze against serious human rights violators, as part of any legislation to lift the Jackson-Vanik trade restrictions, according to another aide. The business community has also "come out in full force," going on the Hill to make it clear Russia is a priority, said the Baucus aide. A business coalition--whose members include major groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and National Association of Manufacturers as well as multinationals like Boeing Co. (BA) and General Electric Co. (GE), announced earlier this month that restoring trade relations with Russia will be the top trade priority this year. But key lawmakers like Kevin Brady (R., Texas), who chairs the House Ways and Means trade subcommittee, have warned that the vote will be a heavy lift.

Richter better – says that all republicans don’t want it to pass, don’t want to spend any new money

A2: Magnitsky Kills Relations

Obama influencing human rights legislation to soften fallout on relations

Inside US Trade, 4/20, Lexis

“HORMATS SAYS ADMINISTRATION ENGAGED WITH CONGRESS ON MAGNITSKY BILL”, BJM

A senior State Department official this week said the Obama administration is working with Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD) and other members of Congress on the substance of a bill to address human rights in Russia in the light of the fact that several key lawmakers are pressing for action on such legislation as a condition for lifting Russia from the Jackson-Vanik amendment. "We understand the depth of conviction here, and we understand that it is highly likely that some kind of [human rights] legislation is going to pass, and we're just working with members as they deliberate on this," Undersecretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy and the Environment Robert Hormats said after testifying at an April 18 hearing of the Senate Finance trade subcommittee. Hormats stressed that the administration is not resisting efforts by members of Congress to pass legislation akin to Cardin's Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law Accountability Act of 2011, but is providing its own inputs in order to shape the substance of an eventual bill. The administration began these conversations with Congress late last month (Inside U.S. Trade, April 6). "We're not resisting their desire to pass something at all. In fact, we respect their commitment to this issue. It's just a matter of trying to find the right way of doing it," he said. "They'll decide, but we can give them inputs, and we are." The Obama administration had previously refused to negotiate on provisions in the Magnitsky bill, saying it opposed the bill because it could have political repercussions for U.S.-Russia relations. The bill would publicly name Russian officials who are barred from visiting the U.S. as a result of being involved in gross violations of human rights. But the administration shifted its position late last month when it began talking with members of Congress about possible revisions that might make the bill more palatable for the White House. Sources have said one potential revision that has been discussed is to alter the bill so it has global application, rather than being limited to human rights abusers in Russia. This could serve to soften the political fallout in Moscow because the bill would not be specifically targeted at Russia.

No impact on relations- replacement increases détente

Wall Street Journal, 3/15

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304692804577281210489679138.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
So we asked Mr. Navalny, who, along with several other members of the opposition leadership, signed a letter cited by Mr. McFaul calling for the removal of Russia from Jackson-Vanik. "Of course no one in Russia is foolish enough to defend Jackson-Vanik," he told us. "But we also understand that it should be replaced with something else. And we said as much in our letter when we recommended the passing of the Magnitsky Act, as has been done in Europe." Mr. Navalny is referring to the Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law Accountability Act of 2011, which was introduced in the U.S. Senate last May with wide bipartisan support. Named for the Russian attorney who died in police custody in 2009 while investigating official corruption, the Magnitsky Act would bring visa and asset sanctions against Russian government functionaries culpable of criminal and human rights abuses. "Such legislation is not anti-Russian," Mr. Navalny explained. "In fact I believe it is pro-Russian. It helps defend us from the criminals who kill our citizens, steal our money, and hide it abroad." It will not be easy to match the legacy of Jackson-Vanik. On March 15, 1973, Sen. Henry "Scoop" Jackson introduced the amendment on the Senate floor. It focused on a specific human-rights issue—the right of Soviet Jews to leave the U.S.S.R. The amendment's greatest opponent was then-National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger, who worried it would upset his vision of détente with the Soviets and instead advocated "quiet diplomacy." In contrast, the Russian dissident and Nobel Laureate Andrei Sakharov praised the amendment as a "policy of principle" that would further détente, not hinder it. The well over one million émigrés who escaped the repressive Soviet state would surely side with Sakharov. Jackson-Vanik is a relic and its time has passed. But allowing it to disappear with nothing in its place, and right on the heels of the fantastically corrupt "election" of March 4, turns it into little more than a gift to Mr. Putin. Our economy, like our people, will never truly flourish until Mr. Putin and his mafia structure are expunged. Moreover, if economic engagement is the best way to promote an open society, why does the Obama administration not forge a free-trade pact with Iran instead of levying sanctions? Russia will be joining the World Trade Organization regardless of what the U.S. does. But WTO membership will not undo Mr. Putin's monopolization of political and economic power. If Mr. Putin and his oligarchs believed for an instant that the WTO might weaken their grip, they simply would stay out. The Obama administration is not only attempting to overturn a law, but also its spirit. As Mr. Kissinger did 39 years ago, Amb. McFaul is trying to make the case that human rights should not get in the way of realpolitik and the business of doing business. He reminds us that the State Department already has its own secret list of banned Russian officials, and so nothing more need be done. But the entire object of such laws is to publicly shame and punish the rank and file of Mr. Putin's mob so they know the big boss can no longer protect them. The Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law Accountability Act is an example of such legislation. Replacing Jackson-Vanik with it would promote better relations between the people of the U.S. and Russia while refusing to provide aid and comfort to a tyrant and his regime at this critical moment in history. This, too, would be a policy of principle.

Relations from JV turns this – causes protection of rights

Kliger 10 (Dr. Sam, American Jewish Committee, “The Jackson-Vanik Amendment and U.S.-Russian Relations”, AJC, 2-4, http://www.ajcrussian.org/site/apps/nlnet/content2.aspx?c=chLMK3PKLsF&b=7718799&ct=8023853)
5) Some human rights groups and NGOs in Russia like the Moscow Bureau for Human Rights and the Civic Chamber of the Russian Federation also express the need for abolishing J-V and suggest that such repeal would contribute to the improvement of U.S. – Russia relations and would enhance the development of civil society in Russia. To ensure continuing emigration freedom and improve the human rights situation in Russia, J-V Amendment could be replaced by cooperation between American and Russian NGOs that would place the amendment’s provisions under civil society control. A move to abolish the amendment would be considered a serious step toward the new approach of “re-setting” relations between the U.S. and Russia, and would contribute to the efforts of the newly established Obama-Medvedev Commission and particularly to its Civil Society Working Group led by Dr. Michael McFaul and Vladislav Surkov, which first met here in Washington last week. This Working Group, for instance, in cooperation with American and Russian NGOs can take control of the amendment’s provisions.

A2: Thumpers

Its one the only things Congress will agree on before the election

Brown 3-21

(Mike-, The Hill, “Trade relations with Russia will be a boost to the U.S.”, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/217251-mike-brown-president-national-chicken-council)

If there is one thing Congress can agree on during an election year, it is a policy that will spur job creation, boost economic growth and be budget neutral at the same time. Here is why authorizing permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) for Russia will accomplish all three. Members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) formally approved late last year Russia’s terms for membership in the organization during a three-day meeting of the WTO’s ministerial conference in Geneva. Russia will take its seat at the WTO 30 days after notifying the organization that the Russian Duma has ratified the membership terms. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov is on record saying that he anticipates the accession agreement being sent to the Duma in May. In Russia, retail food and beverage sales are forecast to increase in real terms from just over $200 billion in 2010 to more than $240 billion by 2014—a 20 percent increase. This is good news for U.S. food exporters as imports are expected to meet some of this growing consumer demand. But while Russia is home to 142 million consumers and maintains the world’s eleventh largest economy, it is the largest economy not yet formally subject to the global trading rules of the WTO. For U.S. companies to benefit from Russia’s accession, it will be necessary for Congress to permanently remove Russia from the Jackson-Vanik amendment to the Trade Act of 1974 and authorize the president to extend PNTR to Russia. Jackson-Vanik requires Russia and seven other former Soviet states and non-market economies to comply with free emigration policies before enjoying normal trade relations with the United States. Since 1994, the United States has certified annually that Russia complies with the amendment’s provisions and has conferred normal trade relations (NTR) status. Russia at times in the past has used arbitrary sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) actions that lack scientific justification to limit or even halt poultry and meat imports from the United States. Without the ability to use WTO’s dispute settlement procedures and other related mechanisms, the United States will be at a very significant disadvantage if Russia chooses to evoke bogus SPS measures against U.S. poultry. As a member of the WTO, Russia is obligated to bind its agricultural import tariffs and tariff-rate quotas (TRQs). But, if Russia misuses SPS provisions, the tariff bindings and TRQs will become a secondary concern. Other world poultry competitors will undoubtedly step up and try to replace the United States if the Russian market is disrupted for U.S. poultry exports. USTR notes that U.S. farmers and exporters will have more certain and predictable market access as a result of Russia’s commitment not to raise tariffs on any products above the negotiated rates and to apply non-tariff measures in a uniform and transparent manner. The National Chicken Council urges Congress to approve PNTR for Russia by mid-2012 to help assure the United States can continue to compete in the Russian poultry market. Exporting $300 million of poultry to Russia annually will provide better incomes for more U.S. workers and additional poultry to be produced by a growing number of family farmers across America.

A2: Presidential Waiver

Recent Federal Court decision affirms notion that Congressional repeal of Jackson-Vanik needed- Obama can’t do via executive order

Courthouse News Service, 2-1-12, p. http://www.courthousenews.com/2012/02/01/43533.htm
WASHINGTON (CN) - Russian scholars cannot sue President Barack Obama to drop trade restrictions with the Russian Federation first imposed in the middle of the Cold War. U.S. presidents have discretion under the Jackson-Vanik amendment of the Trade Act of 1974 to restrict trade with countries that do not meet human rights standards. The Ford administration subjected the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics to this scheme in 1975, the same year Leonid Brezhnev signed the Helsinki Accords and laid the groundwork for human rights compliance in the Soviet Bloc. After President George H.W. Bush first waived the restrictions against Russia in 1992, the country has enjoyed normal, but conditional, trade relations with the United States. Edward Lozansky, a Washington, D.C., resident who serves as president of the American University in Moscow and organizer of the World Russia Forum, sued Obama over this classification last year. Lozansky's academic aide, Anthony Salvia, is a co-plaintiff in the case. The complaint claims that Obama has both the authority and the nondiscretionary duty to permanently "graduate" the Russian Federation from compliance with the amendment's requirements. But Obama countered that the plaintiffs failed establish jurisdiction or state a claim upon which relief can be granted. Lozansky claimed that the instability in U.S.-Russia trade relations hurts his financial interests, but U.S. District Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly said he did not show how the requested relief would address his alleged injuries. Salvia meanwhile could not even show injury. "Furthermore, plaintiffs fail to identify a ministerial duty the court could order the president to take, and thus fail to establish that a writ of mandamus could redress Lozansky's injury," the Jan. 26 decision states. "Finally, Lozansky's alleged injuries are outside the zone of interests of the Jackson-Vanik amendment, and plaintiff Lozansky lacks prudential standing to pursue his claims."

US Federal Court has dismissed Jackson-Vanik amendment lawsuit

Russian Legal Information Agency, 1-27-12, p. http://rapsinews.com/judicial_news/20120127/259819110.html
MOSCOW, January 27 - RAPSI. The Federal Court for the District of Columbia has dismissed a lawsuit to cancel the Jackson-Vanik amendment concerning Russia, the court records read. Adopted by the U.S. Congress in 1974, the amendment restricted trade with the Soviet Union due to Soviet restrictions on free emigration. Today, the amendment continues to operate with respect to the Soviet Union's successor states. The United States has declared a moratorium on the amendment annually as of 1989, but Congress has not yet annulled it formally. Head of the American University in Moscow Edward Lozansky filed a lawsuit against U.S. President Barak Obama in an effort to cancel the amendment. Lozansky argued that the amendment prevents U.S. businessmen from planning their activities in Russia in advance as they cannot rule out a waiver of the moratorium. According to Lozansky, it reflects on the attendance level of his courses and workshops and results in financial losses. The U.S. authorities have asked the court to turn down the lawsuit as the Federal Court for the District of Columbia lacks jurisdiction in the case and the claim was not convincing. In addition, in the court's opinion, the claimant has failed to explain how exactly a favorable resolution of the claim would reinstate his allegedly infringed rights.

No waiver-Congressional repeal is necessary

Stephen Sestanovich, George F. Kennan Senior Fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, 11/10 (Impact of Russia's WTO Entry on U.S., www.cfr.org/russian-fed/impact-russias-wto-entry-us/p26473)
What happens now? Does the president waive the provisions of that bill each year to allow trade to go on?No. This is a common misconception. There is a waiver by the president only if a country covered by Jackson-Vanik is not allowing free emigration. Since Bill Clinton, all American presidents have found Russia to be in full compliance with the requirements of Jackson-Vanik. Meaning that there's no waiver, there's merely a report every year to Congress that Russia is in full compliance. But even that report is inconsistent with normal WTO relations.

A2: Any Non-U.S. Issue

Every single internal WTO block to accession has been settled

ICTSD, Intenrational Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, 11/9 (Consensus Remains Elusive as WTO Ministerial Looms, http://ictsd.org/i/news/bridgesweekly/117966/)
Currently, the ministerial conference is widely expected to approve Russia’s long-standing bid to join the WTO; the formal Working Party on Russian accession is scheduled to meet on 10 and 11 November to finalise remaining technical issues. Sources familiar with the talks note that, while there are a fair amount of technical details that are being discussed, there is no issue that seems unlikely to be resolved.The announcement last week that Russia and its neighbour Georgia had reached a compromise deal resolving their disagreements on trade monitoring along their shared border removed the last major hurdle remaining in Russia’s 18-year accession process (see Bridges Weekly, 2 November 2011). The compromise was largely made possible via the mediation of Switzerland, which trade sources note was “instrumental” in achieving an agreement.Last month, the chair of the WTO committee on government procurement also announced that the 42 countries currently finalising the Government Procurement Agreement (GPA) talks were quickly approaching the finish line (see Bridges Weekly, 19 October 2011). Unlike the Doha Round of trade talks, the GPA does not extend to the entire WTO membership, applying only to those countries that choose to sign on to the process.Other countries are also working on acceding to the agreement, notably China. Another meeting of the committee on government procurement is scheduled for 15 November.Apart from these, “the number of decisions that members take will be small,” one delegate observed, adding wryly that the meeting risks becoming “the least successful ministerial since the last one.”

More ev-Russia will be accepted by the WTO

Kyiv Post 11/13 (IHS Global Insight: Russia's accession to WTO offers substantial benefits both to all, http://www.kyivpost.com/news/opinion/op_ed/detail/116827/)
Russian negotiators yesterday (10 November) celebrated winning crucial backing from the World Trade Organization (WTO) Working Party on Russia's Accession. Their team, led by experienced and long-standing negotiator Maxim Medvedkov was greeted by the WTO Director-General, Pascal Lamy, who handed over a T-shirt saying "Welcome to the WTO... finally."This encapsulated the ups and downs of 18 years of talks first launched back in 1993. Far too many times it has been announced that Russia's accession to the Geneva-based international trade regulating body was imminent, only to admit that there were still disagreements keeping Russia outside the 153-member organisation.But with the backing of the WTO Working Party, the longest accession process in the history of WTO is nearing its end. The next formality will be securing the approval of the accession package at the WTO Conference of Ministers due to take place on 15-17 December.Given that most of the obstacles have been removed the Ministerial Conference is likely to endorse Russia's membership which is not only an important milestone for opening the country to global trade but also for the WTO. As the Icelandic chairman of the WTO Working Party on Russia's Accession Stefan Johannesson put it, the breakthrough was a "historic achievement for the WTO", adding that "Russia's accession to the WTO will bring substantial benefits both to Russia and to the members of this organisation."The news also generated positive reception from the European Union (EU) Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht, who said, "I look forward to the upcoming WTO ministerial in December to formally endorse Russia's accession to the WTO membership." US president Barack Obama also congratulated his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev saying that after nearly two decades Russia will finally be able to join the WTO. Once the Ministerial Conference formally endorses Russian accession, Moscow will have until 15 June 2012 to ratify the accession package and within 30 days of ratification by the Russian legislature, the country will become a formal member of the WTO.

A2: Georgia Opposition

Recent Georgia agreement creates momentum for repeal in Congress

Stephen Sestanovich, George F. Kennan Senior Fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, 11/10 (Impact of Russia's WTO Entry on U.S., www.cfr.org/russian-fed/impact-russias-wto-entry-us/p26473)
To help end Jackson-Vanik, will Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili have to come to Congress and make a pitch on Russia's behalf? That seems to be the issue, whether the Georgians are happy?No, the Georgians are now happy because their concern has been that Russian membership should not in any way imply that trade across the border from Russia into South Ossetia and Abkhazia is not trade into Georgian territory. And they've gotten the mechanism now that satisfies them on that point. They want other things from the United States, and they are going to be pushing their case for closer security cooperation between now and the NATO summit next spring in Chicago.The hard question for Russians and the administration will be whether Congress is prepared to do a so-called "graduation vote" that is clean, meaning simply to "graduate" Russia from Jackson-Vanik and take no further action. There's a lot of understandable sentiment in Congress that Jackson-Vanik should be replaced with something else that expresses continuing American support for efforts to democratize Russia, to defend human rights, and so forth.There are disagreements in Congress about what that replacement legislation should be. There is this so-called Magnitsky bill, which would impose restrictions on entry into the United States and even on assets in the United States of Russian officials who are considered to be human rights abusers. There has been some consideration to setting up a fund which would support civil society groups in Russia. Something of this sort is meant to ease the anxiety that members have when they "graduate" Russia from the coverage of the single most important piece of legislation from the Cold War relating to human rights. They want to feel that there is somehow an expression of continuing concern, a modernization of that policy. They haven't figured out what it should be, but there's a strong interest in taking some steps along these lines.

Recent border agreement solves

Stephen Sestanovich, George F. Kennan Senior Fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, 11/10 (Impact of Russia's WTO Entry on U.S., www.cfr.org/russian-fed/impact-russias-wto-entry-us/p26473)
Russia is all set to enter the WTO. Is this a major development for the world economy? Is it a major development in Russia's relations with the rest of the world?The Russians are the largest economy not in the WTO. Their accession is important in economic terms; it also has significant political interest. A few months ago, I would have predicted that it would be quite hard to solve the big remaining obstacle, which was a political one. And that was that Georgia objected to Russian membership because, in brief, Russia is occupying its territory. It wanted arrangements made that would indicate that South Ossetia and Abkhazia--the Georgian provinces that Russia has recognized as autonomous, independent states following the brief Russian-Georgian war in 2008--are still part of Georgia. And the Russians of course, were in no mood to grant this. So, it looked as though it would be very hard to broker a deal.In the end, both sides have agreed to a monitoring system (AP) on the Russian-Georgian border across from Abkhazia and South Ossetia, in which an independent contractor, hired by the Swiss government, will monitor and report on trade flows. It's a jerry-rigged arrangement, but the real interest of it is that the Russians agreed to something that does, in fact, imply that there's something fishy in the status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. And that's what the Georgians wanted. They wanted even the mere suggestion, the merest practical compromise that these were not real countries, and they got it. So it's interesting that the Russians agreed to do this.Why did the Russians agree?It suggests both a desire for the economic benefits of WTO membership--recognition that on the question of the status of these two provinces the Russians are totally isolated in the world--and suggests a desire to move beyond the impasse on this question.

Border agreement spills over to certain accession

RT 11/9 (Russia overcomes final WTO hurdle, http://rt.com/business/news/wto-russia-wto-accession-909/)
Russia and Georgia have signed landmark agreement, giving the green light to Russia’s WTO accession.The two sides have agreed new border controls for Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which was the last stumbling block. The document signed in Geneva allows border trade to be electronicallymonitored, with an independent auditor also keeping an eye on things.“These corridors have been determined by geographical coordinates, and the document will not say anything about a border and will not contain terminology charged politically," Georgian media reported Sergei Kapanadze, Georgian Deputy Foreign Minister, as saying.The move clears the way for Russia to end its 18 year battle to join the WTO. Russia intends to complete all the formalities within the next couple of days. Next month the 153 members of the WTO should give their approval, with the final accesion expected to be completed by the end of the year.Russia’s WTO membership has a trial of patience and stamina, with heated, often explosive, debate.

Georgia dropped its WTO veto

Reuters 10/29 (US lawmakers warn Obama over Russia's WTO bid, http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE79S2TP20111029?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0)
Russia is closer than ever to joining the WTO after being offered a "take it or leave it" compromise last week by its tiny neighbour Georgia, the last holdout in Moscow's 18-year path to membership. Georgia, like all WTO members, has an effective veto on Russia's membership, which it has threatened to use unless a dispute with Russia over customs controls was resolved.The two countries fought a brief war in August 2008 over two breakaway regions in Georgia and they have not restored diplomatic relations.

More ev and insider statements prove Georgia compromise

Reuters 10/31 (US says Georgia-Russia WTO talks going quite well, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/31/russia-wto-georgia-usa-idUSN1E79U16S20111031)
Swiss-mediated talks between Russia and Georgia about Russia's entry into the World Trade Organization are going well and the United States is encouraged, the State Department said on Monday."Our understanding is that the talks are going quite well. We are encouraged by the progress. They are not finished yet, however," State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland told reporters. "The Georgians have accepted the Swiss proposal. The Russians are studying it ... We remain hopeful that this will be a good avenue for resolving the outstanding issues."

A2: EU Opposition

EU lifted all opposition points

RT 10/31 (Russia could join WTO by December, http://rt.com/news/prime-time/wto-russia-membership-dvorkovich-193/)
Russia could be a member of the World Trade Organization by mid-December, declared presidential aide Arkady Dvorkovich.“If everything goes as planned, the working group will meet on November 11,” Dvorkovich said. “If the group approves the bid, Russia will join the WTO on December 15, at the ministerial conference. The next step then, of course, is to get all documents ratified.”Negations got a major boost last week after the EU put pressure on Georgia – the only member of the WTO opposing the bid.The EU threatened that if Georgia does not change its position on Russia’s bid, the EU will make an exception to WTO rules, which require the full consent of all 153 member states in order to welcome a new member.As required, Russia has already held successful negations with all WTO countries – aside from Georgia.Both the US and EU removed the last roadblocks to Russia’s membership after Moscow agreed to change its rules on car assembly, the export of farm products and quotas for wood imports.

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