 
| NIGERIA |
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High Risk
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NOTABLE DATES
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  DECEMBER
10
15
12
At least two dead in electoral unrest during Rivers State rerun elections
Former Deputy PDP chairman accuses President Buhari of attempting to militarize, “occupy” Rivers State
Governor Wike leads protest in Port Harcourt against alleged police brutality during recent elections
Rivers State re-run election violence indicative of entrenched political rivalries, volatility
While All Progressive Congress (APC) candidate Muhammadu Buhari victory over incumbent People´s Democratic Party (PDP) President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015 represented the first peaceful, democratic transition of power in Nigerian history, political tensions and unrest have persisted in certain regions, most notably the Niger Delta. In this regard, Rivers State has emerged as one of the areas most prone to political violence during the general elections in March-April 2015, as well as the attempted re-run elections on March 19, 2016 and December 10, 2016. As to the December 10 results, on the federal level, the PDP won two of three senatorial seats and the APC three of four federal House of Representative seats. On the state level, three House of Assembly seats went to each party, with some final results not yet released.
Many different factors drive this political volatility, ethnic rivalries, the presence of armed criminal elements and militants across the state, as well as political tensions stemming from the defection of former PDP governor Rotimi Amaechi to the APC and subsequent clashes between his supporters and those of current PDP governor Nelson Wike. The widespread culture of political patronage and entrenched corruption in Rivers has also contributed to the volatility, where local affiliations and personal interests often play a major role in vote-rigging and political power dynamics. Given that the voting itself was marred by violence and alleged irregularities, prompting both the APC and PDP to file legal challenges, January is likely to witness continued volatility, and potential outbreaks of unrest once the decision on the judicial appeals are released.
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| ANGOLA |
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Medium Risk
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NOTABLE DATES
| Current Situation
DECEMBER
1
10
2
Oil tanker anchored in Luanda boarded by armed robbers who escaped with stolen goods
National Radio of Angola announces long-standing president Jose Eduardo dos Santos will not run in 2017 General Elections
Jose Eduardo dos Santos absent from 60th anniversary party of MPLA, while Joao Lourenco not yet confirmed as successor
Assessments & Forecast
President dos Santos’ resignation reiterated
Although longstanding president Jose Eduardo dos Santos stated in March that he will step down in 2018, it remained unclear whether he will run in the 2017 elections and then step down, or not run for the 2017 elections, leaving it for a successor to compete in. The reelection of dos Santos as head of the ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) party in August, underscored the complexity of the transition from dos Santos, ruling the country since 1979, to a successor. Several moves were made by dos Santos in recent months to ensure his future following stepping down. Firstly, his daughter, Isabel, was appointed as chairwoman of the government-owned petroleum and natural gas company in June. Secondly, his two children Welwitchia “Tchize” and Jose Filomeno, were enrolled as new members of MPLA Central Committee. The announcement on December 2, came after the MPLA Central Committee convened, and was likely announced according to dos Santos’s planning. The absence of dos Santos from the 60th anniversary of the MPLA party on December 10, could be seen as the latest of steps to loosen his firm grip on the party and government, allowing other members to take the focus and lead within the party. With that said, although a leaked internal MPLA memo from December 2 disclosed that Defense Minister Joao Lourenco will be the party’s candidate, and it was assumed that he will be officially announced on December 10, he was not, further underscoring the party’s struggle with its future. That said, in light of the aforementioned memo as well as the radio announcement and his position as vice president of the MPLA, we assess that Lourenco is likely to be announced as successor in the coming weeks. Furthermore, throughout 2017, we assess that dos Santos will continue to place family members and other loyalists in positions of power in order to maintain his influence.
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