January 2017 Executive Summary
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  January 2017 Executive SummaryCentral Africa saw notable developments in December, with the Lake Chad region seeing the Nigerien government launch an amnesty program to demobilize Boko Haram militants while the Islamic State (IS) claimed to have executed back-to-back attacks on security forces on December 23. Meanwhile, Nigeria witnessed a surge of political unrest, with two killed in electoral violence in River’s State, in the Niger Delta region, amid tensions between local opposition members and the country’s ruling party. December saw unrest unfold in the DRC, as militia related violence in the outlying regions spiked amid instability caused by President Joseph Kabila’s initial refusal to resign at the end of his term. Clashes between ex-Seleka groups in CAR were sparked by a dispute over the control of mining routes in the vicinity of Bambari, Ouaka Prefecture, while a new militia, dubbed “3R”, was implicated in atrocities in the northwestern Mbomou and Ouham prefectures. In Burundi, the approval of new legislation tightening the government’s grip on NGO’s marked a worsening operating environment for humanitarians, while the removal of former Tanzanian President Mkapa as mediator bodes poorly for an inclusive peace agreement. December also saw unrest in Cameroon’s Anglophone communities, with police crackdowns against protesters in the cities of Buea, Kumba and four killed in Bamenda.December likewise saw important geo-political developments transpire in East Africa, with Somalia inaugurating its tenth parliament, suspending its presidential election for a fourth time, and witnessing a potential escalating rivalry between IS and al-Shabaab in its autonomous Puntland administration. In South Sudan, hostilities intensified between government and rebels in the Central Equatoria region amid reports of ethnic violence, as well as President Salva Kiir’s announcement of a National Dialogue apparently devoid of elements representing rebel leader Riek Machar. Kenya likewise experienced a surge in violence, with ethnic Pokot and Marakwet pastoralists clashing in the Kerio valley and a rise in al-Shaabab activity in the northeastern counties marked by the targeting of telecommunication systems. In Sudan, a civil disobedience campaign on December 19-20 against government repression, cuts to fuel subsidies and the resulting rise in costs gained generally limited adherence amid threats by President Omar al-Bashir and intimidation tactics by security forces. Finally, in Mozambique, the announcement of a 60-day truce by Renamo’s leader was preceded by the rebels’ execution of five deadly attacks, mainly in the Sofala and Manica provinces, including the targeting of a freight train and a passenger bus.Turning to Southern Africa, in Zimbabwe, the announcement by the main MDC-T party of its participation in the 2018, alongside talks by smaller partners of a coalition against incumbent President Robert Mugabe, presents a challenge for the ruling ZANU-PF party ahead of the 2018 elections. In South Africa, outrage at President Jacob Zuma in the wake of the ‘State Capture’ report seemed to ebb as calm likewise prevailed at Witwatersrand University, in Johannesburg, despite an eight percent hike in student fees.In Western Africa, Mali’s CMA suspended its participation in the Algiers accord while al-Qaeda affiliated jihadists struck French Barkhane forces in Kidal and abducted a Fresh-Swiss NGO director. Burkina Faso likewise experienced notable incidents of armed violence in December, with 12 soldiers killed in a single raid by gunmen and another attack in the Sahelian town of Soboule highighting the presence of jihadists in the country’s north. Meanwhile, Congo’s Pool Region saw two attacks by Ninja militiamen amid civilian deaths by government airstrikes. While President Yayha Jammeh conceded defeat in The Gambia’s recent elections, his subsequent rejection of the results prompted diplomatic intervention by regional powers, who warned of military involvement lest he resign by January 19. December brought atypical political activism in Mauritania, with Nouakchott seeing three relatively rare protests, two of which incurred harsh crackdowns by police. Equatorial Guinea witness its Vice President, Teodorin Nguema’s claim of diplomatic immunity rejected by the International Court of Justice (ICJ), opening the door for trial over embezzlement and corruption. Despite initial localized incidents of unrest, Ghana’s general elections transpired peacefully, with President John Mahama conceding defeat to opposition leader Nana Akufo-Addo. Finally, in Angola, President Eduardo Dos Santos reiterated his intent to step down in 2018 despite being reelected as the head of the ruling party.Global Risk Map/Africa
The following list contains countries in the region with notable developments from the past month. Please choose your country of interest by clicking on its link below. Extreme Risk Executive Summary 2 Central Africa saw notable developments in December, with the Lake Chad region seeing the Nigerien government launch an amnesty program to demobilize Boko Haram militants while the Islamic State (IS) claimed to have executed back-to-back attacks on security forces on December 23. Meanwhile, Nigeria witnessed a surge of political unrest, with two killed in electoral violence in River’s State, in the Niger Delta region, amid tensions between local opposition members and the country’s ruling party. December saw unrest unfold in the DRC, as militia related violence in the outlying regions spiked amid instability caused by President Joseph Kabila’s initial refusal to resign at the end of his term. Clashes between ex-Seleka groups in CAR were sparked by a dispute over the control of mining routes in the vicinity of Bambari, Ouaka Prefecture, while a new militia, dubbed “3R”, was implicated in atrocities in the northwestern Mbomou and Ouham prefectures. In Burundi, the approval of new legislation tightening the government’s grip on NGO’s marked a worsening operating environment for humanitarians, while the removal of former Tanzanian President Mkapa as mediator bodes poorly for an inclusive peace agreement. December also saw unrest in Cameroon’s Anglophone communities, with police crackdowns against protesters in the cities of Buea, Kumba and four killed in Bamenda. 2 December likewise saw important geo-political developments transpire in East Africa, with Somalia inaugurating its tenth parliament, suspending its presidential election for a fourth time, and witnessing a potential escalating rivalry between IS and al-Shabaab in its autonomous Puntland administration. In South Sudan, hostilities intensified between government and rebels in the Central Equatoria region amid reports of ethnic violence, as well as President Salva Kiir’s announcement of a National Dialogue apparently devoid of elements representing rebel leader Riek Machar. Kenya likewise experienced a surge in violence, with ethnic Pokot and Marakwet pastoralists clashing in the Kerio valley and a rise in al-Shaabab activity in the northeastern counties marked by the targeting of telecommunication systems. In Sudan, a civil disobedience campaign on December 19-20 against government repression, cuts to fuel subsidies and the resulting rise in costs gained generally limited adherence amid threats by President Omar al-Bashir and intimidation tactics by security forces. Finally, in Mozambique, the announcement of a 60-day truce by Renamo’s leader was preceded by the rebels’ execution of five deadly attacks, mainly in the Sofala and Manica provinces, including the targeting of a freight train and a passenger bus. 2 Turning to Southern Africa, in Zimbabwe, the announcement by the main MDC-T party of its participation in the 2018, alongside talks by smaller partners of a coalition against incumbent President Robert Mugabe, presents a challenge for the ruling ZANU-PF party ahead of the 2018 elections. In South Africa, outrage at President Jacob Zuma in the wake of the ‘State Capture’ report seemed to ebb as calm likewise prevailed at Witwatersrand University, in Johannesburg, despite an eight percent hike in student fees. 2 In Western Africa, Mali’s CMA suspended its participation in the Algiers accord while al-Qaeda affiliated jihadists struck French Barkhane forces in Kidal and abducted a Fresh-Swiss NGO director. Burkina Faso likewise experienced notable incidents of armed violence in December, with 12 soldiers killed in a single raid by gunmen and another attack in the Sahelian town of Soboule highighting the presence of jihadists in the country’s north. Meanwhile, Congo’s Pool Region saw two attacks by Ninja militiamen amid civilian deaths by government airstrikes. While President Yayha Jammeh conceded defeat in The Gambia’s recent elections, his subsequent rejection of the results prompted diplomatic intervention by regional powers, who warned of military involvement lest he resign by January 19. December brought atypical political activism in Mauritania, with Nouakchott seeing three relatively rare protests, two of which incurred harsh crackdowns by police. Equatorial Guinea witness its Vice President, Teodorin Nguema’s claim of diplomatic immunity rejected by the International Court of Justice (ICJ), opening the door for trial over embezzlement and corruption. Despite initial localized incidents of unrest, Ghana’s general elections transpired peacefully, with President John Mahama conceding defeat to opposition leader Nana Akufo-Addo. Finally, in Angola, President Eduardo Dos Santos reiterated his intent to step down in 2018 despite being reelected as the head of the ruling party. 2 Global Risk Map/Africa 3 LAKE CHAD 4 Assessments & Forecast 4 CAR 6 Current Situation 6 Assessments & Forecast 6 SOMALIA 7 Current Situation 7 Assessments & Forecast 7 SOUTH SUDAN 8 Current Situation 8 Assessments & Forecast 8 BURUNDI 9 Current Situation 9 Assessments & Forecast 9 DRC 10 Current Situation 10 Assessments & Forecast 10 MALI 11
Current Situation 11 Assessments & Forecast 11 NIGERIA 12 Current Situation 12 Assessments & Forecast 12 ANGOLA 13 Current Situation 13 Assessments & Forecast 13 BURKINA FASO 14 Current Situation 14 Assessments & Forecast 14 CAMEROON 16 Current Situation 16 Assessments & Forecast 16 CONGO 17 Assessments & Forecast 17 THE GAMBIA 18 Assessments & Forecast 18 KENYA 19 Current Situation 19 Assessments & Forecast 19 MAURITANIA 20 Current Situation 20 Assessments & Forecast 20 MOZAMBIQUE 21 Current Situation 21 Assessments & Forecast 21 SOUTH AFRICA 22 Current Situation 22 Assessments & Forecast 22 SUDAN 23 Current Situation 23 Assessments & Forecast 23 ZIMBABWE 24 Current Situation 24 Assessments & Forecast 24 EQUATORIAL GUINEA 25 Current Situation 25 Assessments & Forecast 25 GHANA 26
Current Situation 26 Assessments & Forecast 26 Notable Dates 26
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