January 2017 Executive Summary

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	CONGO
	Medium Risk	NOTABLE DATES

IDC-FROCAD join with Mokoko supporters to call for end to state of emergency in Pool Region
Current Situation

DECEMBER

3-4

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Ninja militia ambush military vehicle in Mindouli, Pool Region, killing two

Seven soldiers allegedly killed in clashes with Ninja militia after airstrikes kill six civilians in Loulombo, Pool Region

14

Assessments & Forecast

Guerrilla attacks, military crackdowns against Ninja militiamen in restive Pool region

Several incidents over the past month highlight the continued volatility of the Pool region amidst ongoing military operations to forcibly neutralize the ex-Ninja militia loyal to Frederic Bintsamou, aka Pastor Ntumi. According to government reports, more than 60 armed clashes with security forces have taken place since late September. Military operations have caused the displacement of thousands of civilians dating back to April 4, when the government blamed Pastor Ntumi’s fighters for post-electoral violence in Brazzaville. However, the series of guerrilla-style attacks in November and December represent a new development in Pool, including the bombing of a cargo train between Matoumbou to PK Loualou stations on October 31 and the November 3-4 ambush of a military vehicle in Mindouli. While information from the Pool region remains scarce owing to media restrictions and the absence of independent investigations on the ground since a joint UN-government mission in June, we assess these unconfirmed reports of guerrilla attacks, airstrikes, direct clashes and security crackdowns related to the Ninja militia to be plausible, pointing to continued violence.
Supporting this assessment, is the renewed political impetus to restore security to the Pool region, as evidenced by the questioning in late October of government ministers by members of the National Assembly on measures taken to combat the militia. The Prime Minister, Defence Minister and Justice Minister all reported on military initiatives or upcoming trials to respond to the Ninja threat. The political overtones to the Pool conflict is also evident in the opposition demands, from both the IDC-FROCAD coalition and supporters of detained former presidential candidate General Mokoko, that the state of emergency be lifted and an independent investigation carried out into alleged crimes during the security operations. Moreover, the roots of this conflict also appear to have been political, as Pastor Ntumi’s support for opposition presidential candidate Guy Brice Parfait Kolelas catalyzed his fallout with President Nguesso and paved the way for subsequent violence. In sum, the impetus behind the crackdown on Ntumi, his militia fighters, and perceived sympathizers in the Pool region, is driven by personal animosity with President Nguesso, stemming back to the 1997-1999 civil war in which they were aligned with rival militias, as well as political motivation for Nguesso to demonstrate his ability to neutralize this security threat and deter the opposition. However, given that the Pool region remains unstable and prone to militia attacks nearly nine months after the military operations began, we assess that the low-grade conflict will persist over the coming months, with intermittent guerrilla-style attacks, direct clashes with military forces, and elevated security risks along major roads passing through the volatile region.

$c:\users\jay\desktop\gv-lgflag.gif$	THE GAMBIA
$c:\users\jay\desktop\gv-lgflag.gif$	Medium Risk	NOTABLE DATES

DECEMBER

13

9

Jammeh belatedly rejects polls, citing “serious and unacceptable abnormalities” in the electoral process

Security forces seize control of IEC headquarters in Banjul, as ECOWAS delegation arrives for mediation

Current Situation

ECOWAS announces military forces have been placed on standby in case Jammeh does not step down on January 19

President Yahya Jammeh concedes defeat in December 1 presidential elections to opponent Adama Barrow

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January 2017 Executive Summary

CONGO

Assessments & Forecast

THE GAMBIA