| DRC |
|
High Risk
|
NOTABLE DATES
|
  DECEMBER
6
31
19
Mai-Mai militiamen kill two, injure two in morning raid on Vitshumbibi, Rutshuru Territory
President Kabila refuses to step down at end of second term, unrest and violent crackdowns ensue
CENCO-brokered electoral accord reached between opposition and ruling coalitions
Assessments & Forecast
Kabila refusal to step down at end of term leads to unrest, draft deal with opposition
As anticipated, President Kabila’s refusal to step down on December 19, the constitutionally-mandated end of his second term, led to widespread unrest in multiple cities, namely Kinshasa, Goma, Lubumbashi, Matadi and Boma. This unrest was met with violent crackdowns and at least 20 deaths nationwide. As tensions subsided in the ensuing days, the renewed efforts of the National Episcopal Conference of Congo (CENCO) led to an agreement signed by the ruling and opposition coalitions, in which Kabila will step down in time for general elections in late 2017.
That Kabila himself did not participate in the negotiations or sign the agreement presages continued tensions and the potential renewal of unrest should he fail to follow the spirit and letter of the agreement and cede power peacefully. Furthermore, the accord faces significant challenges to its implementation, including doubts over the feasibility of holding elections by the end of 2017 and reports that senior government officials are now criticizing the deal for a lack of inclusivity, worrying signs of backtracking on its commitments. As such, political instability will remain elevated over coming weeks and months during the implementation phase of the agreement.
|
Uptick in militia-related violence in east
The month of December saw a relative uptick in the militia-related violence that has long plagued the country’s eastern provinces. While some instances of ethnic violence were recorded, the majority of militia-related attacks targeted security forces, either from the Armed Forces of the DRC (FARDC) or the from the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO).
While these incidents are in keeping with the long-term trend of violence from armed groups in the DRC’s east, especially in the restive provinces of South Kivu, North Kivu, and Tanganyika, the political crisis created by President Kabila’s refusal to step down at the end of his second term made the already precarious security environment in those areas more vulnerable to the violent activities of armed groups, which likely exploited the crisis to carry out attacks with greater frequency. Still, the ethnic conflict and broader militia-related violence observed in December 2016 long predates the ongoing political crisis. As such, even if the recently-brokered accord between the DRC’s ruling coalition and its opposition succeeds in restoring political calm throughout the country over the coming weeks, militia attacks against domestic and international security forces in eastern DRC are likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
|
| MALI |
|
High Risk
|
NOTABLE DATES
| Current Situation
DECEMBER
8-9
24
19
Ansar Dine claim two attacks against French Barkhane forces in Kidal, unknown gunmen ambush Malian army convoy in Timbuktu Region
CMA suspend participation in Algiers Accord monitoring committee, subcommittees
French-Swiss director of international NGO in Gao since 2004 abducted by suspected al-Mourabitoun gunmen
Assessments & Forecast
CMA suspend participation in Algiers Accord
The Coordination of Movements of Azawad (CMA) decision to suspend its participation in the Algiers Accord is likely political in nature to pressure the government into implementing the 2015 Algiers Peace Accord, signed with the CMA and the pro-government Imghad and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA). The first indication of the discontent was the boycotting of the municipal elections in November 20, and the December 17 appointment of Alghabass Ag Intalla, from the High Council for the Unity of Azawad (HCUA) as Secretary General of CMA was the immediate trigger for the decision. With that said, the CMA did send members to Gao to participate in the joint patrols as part of the Operational Coordination Mechanism (MOC). In this context, we assess that the CMA is likely to eventually rejoin the Algiers Accord, given that the group’s letter of suspension provides a solution to the impasse.
|
Ansar Dine remain most active militant group
Ansar Dine claimed attacks in Kidal, Timbuktu, Gao, Mopti, and Segou regions, showcasing their capability across central and northern Mali. IED attacks on local and foreign security force vehicles continued to be their favored modus operandi, which have large damage potential with little risk. Meanwhile Ansar Dine’s Macina Brigade claimed responsibility for an attack on a prison in which around 92 inmates were released. The attack is the second prison attack conducted by the group in recent months, following the November 6-7 Banamba attack, underscoring their operational capabilities. The abduction of the French-Swiss aid worker, although yet to be claimed, was likely conducted by al-Mourabitoun operation, given precedent and that it took place in the main area of operations in Gao. The kidnapping serves a reminder to the danger to westerners in the central and northern regions due to the presence of militant and criminal groups.
|
Share with your friends: |
