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Medium Risk
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NOTABLE DATES
| Current Situation
  NOVEMBER
30
20
13
Eight youths arrested in Nouakchott whilst protesting constitutional referendum
Police disperse protest outside Russian embassy in Nouakchott, denouncing alleged war crimes in Aleppo
Thousands protest in vicinity of Supreme Court in capital, calling for death penalty for alleged apostate, dispersed with tear gas
DECEMBER
Assessments & Forecast
Multiple protests recorded despite typically limited political activism
Given that Mauritania does not frequently witness significant public protests, that at least three such events were recorded over the past month is notable. Each of these was predicated on a different issues, and thus we do not assess that the pattern is indicative of a broader emerging trend of activism. Nevertheless, given their overarching rarity, the demonstrations underscore the extent of public discontent with particular issues. In the case of the November 30 event, the constitutional referendum, which seek to replace the Senate with regional councils, has been met with significant political opposition, as it would grant additional power to the executive office and thus facilitate any future attempts by President Abdel Aziz to remain in office beyond his second term. Indeed, a number of protests have been held over the issue, including a march on October 29 which was organized by the National Forum for Democracy and Unity (FNDU) and the Rally for Democratic Forces (RFD). A date for the referendum has yet to be established, but additional demonstrations appear likely as the vote approaches. Meanwhile, the protest on December 20 is indicative of the strength of anti-apostasy sentiment in Mauritania. Furthermore, public antipathy towards the accused, Mohammed Cheikh Ould MKheitir, has potentially exacerbated by deep caste-based divides within Mauritanian society, given that he is a member of the low-ranking maalemine. MKheitir’s case is suspended as of the time of writing, and it is unclear when it will resume. However, given the strength of sentiment witnessed on December 20, as well as a number of protests over the past two years, similar demonstrations are liable to be witnessed when the trial reconvenes.
Beyond highlighting these rather specific drivers for additional protest over the coming months, the abovementioned incidents are useful in underscoring an additional dynamic within Mauritanian society, namely, the willingness of security forces to resort to forcible measures to curb and disperse public gatherings. This is perhaps best exemplified with the crackdown carried out against the protests on December 13, despite the event’s peaceful nature, and the lack of strong ties between Mauritania and Russia. The heavy handed security response witnessed in each of the above instances likely goes some way in explaining the low frequency of protest action and, by the same token, serves to further emphasize the extent of public concern with respect to each of the issues addressed.
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| MOZAMBIQUE |
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Medium Risk
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NOTABLE DATES
| Current Situation
JANUARY
Renamo opposition leader announces additional 60 day truce with Frelimo party
3
DECEMBER
10
19
12
Peace talks between Renamo and government suspended
Two wounded in suspected Renamo attack on bus in Ncondezi, Manica Province
Renamo frees 48 in prison break in Barue district, Manica Province, as coal train ambushed in Sofala Province
Assessments & Forecast
Joint Commission’s international mediators leave country due to stalemate in talks, amid persistent Renamo attacks
In December, the Renamo opposition group carried out five deadly attacks across the country, including two against buses and one against a locomotive train, mainly in the Sofala and Manica province. The rebel group often targets freight trains or other means of transportation on major roads in this area of the country to undermine the Mozambican coal industry, an essential part of the national economy. Additionally, the rebel group also conducted a high risk raid in Barue where they freed 48 prisons inmates, demonstrating an unusual high level of audacity and planning. Meanwhile, the heightened political tensions were also epitomized by the assassination of a Renamo lawmaker in Nampula. Such targeted assassinations from both Frelimo and Renamo are also typical. Amid the prevailing political violence, the hopes of peace and renewed dialogue raised by the Joint Commission preparing a meeting between Renamo leader Afonso Dhaklama and President Filipe Nyusi for the past months, were lost with the departure of international mediators, the subsequent suspension of peace talks and recent Renamo declarations refusing the replacement of the international mediators in the Joint Commission with national ones. As a matter of fact, the dialogue is currently facing a stalemate, with Frelimo’s desire to form a working group on decentralization barred by Renamo’s strong rejection of national mediators in the process. That being said, whilst these developments highlight a deterioration of the peace process in Mozambique and the relations between the groups remain tense, Afonso Dhlakama’s decision to extend the seven day ceasefire that was set to expire on January 4, following a phone call with the President marks a positive step, while highlighting Renamo’s relatively weakened position. Moreover, it is likely that Renamo initiated the ceasefire as an attempt to recall the international mediators. That being said, given that any localized incident of violence could derail the fragile ceasefire and trigger renewed violence, this development should still be taken with caution. Overall, in spite of the recent ceasefire and potential cessation of attacks between the groups over the coming months, the security situation in Mozambique remains highly tense and is unlikely to improve during this period.
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