Inter-jihadist rivalry to worsen uptick, prompt
December saw a sharp uptick in militant activity in Puntland, culminating in overnight security sweeps between December 25-26 in Bosaso and the imposition of a nighttime curfew. The killing of the military prosecutor, the latest of three similar assassinations in almost two weeks, all claimed by al-Shabaab, point to the group’s attempt to step up operations, potentially in order to eclipse an increasingly active Islamic State (IS) faction. The killings in turn underscore the relative vulnerability of senior Puntland officials, notable given perceptions that the autonomous region’s more effective counterinsurgency capabilities. With the December 18 attack, the IS faction continues to makes its presence felt, capitalizing on the notoriety gained by its nearly month-long grip on Qandala. Going into January, we assess that the faction, which exceeded previous estimates of its capabilities, will attempt to maintain operational momentum by further targeting Puntland forces and possibly seizing territory beyond its foothold in the Galgala hills. For their part, local al-Shabaab elements will likewise maintain their own operations in an attempt to retain historical primacy in the region. Finally, amid this surge in militancy, and as suggested by the, January is likely to see Puntland forces shift to a more offensive counterinsurgency posture, which will likely entail boosting security in Bosaso, and the targeting of militant footholds, thereby raising the prospect for January to see increased clashes between security forces and jihadists.
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Delays persist, exposing electoral volatility, scandals
The suspension of the presidential election, this time to January 24, represents the fourth such postponement since September. These setbacks allude to the Somali state’s inherent fragility, and serve to illustrate the myriad factors driving the volatility of its political system, including disputes within and between the country’s nascent federal member states and more specifically, the logistical challenges posed by what has been the most inclusive, and thus cumbersome, electoral process to date, one compounded by the ubiquitous nationwide al-Shabaab threat. As such, going into January, the dynamic detailed above is liable to drive further setbacks. That said, the swearing in of the tenth parliament, the sole institution mandated to appoint the president, is encouraging and suggest that the planned January 24 election will be fulfilled. Still, given the recurring nature of these delays, further postponement cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile, on a broader level, regardless of the electoral process’ perceived success, previous allegations of rampant abuses and misconduct threaten to undermine the credibility of any electoral results. That findings by independent monitors, suggesting massive vote and seat buying by various candidates, have been disregarded is only likely to pique existing skepticism of the election’s already tenuous legitimacy, risks a degree of political unrest.
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