January 2017 Executive Summary



Download 180.63 Kb.
Page11/11
Date09.07.2017
Size180.63 Kb.
#22823
1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11







SOUTH AFRICA



Medium Risk

NOTABLE DATES

Current Situation


DECEMBER

2

17

5

President Jacob Zuma issues petition to Pretoria High Court to dismiss ‘State Capture’ report

University of the Witwatersrand (Wits) in Johannesburg announces 8 percent increase in student fees for 2017 academic year

ANC Veteran’s National Council gather in Johannesburg, discuss need to vet senior leadership positions



Assessments & Forecast





‘State Capture’ protests loses momentum

Following the release of the ‘State Capture’ report to the public on November 2, which details allegations of corruption between President Jacob Zuma and the wealthy Gupta family, anti-Zuma sentiment reached unprecedented levels with protests in major cities and a non-confidence vote in Parliament which failed to pass. However, the month of December was calm in this regard, even though Zuma rejected the report’s recommendation to establish a commission to further examine the ties with the Gupta family, and appealed to the high court to dismiss the report. In contrast to the reaction when the report was released, Zuma’s court petition did not receive similar levels of attention or protests from the public and the opposition. Additionally, the appeal to the high court defers any decision and action until the court announces its decision. It remains to be seen when the high court will announce its decision, which could be a focal point for further unrest. More broadly, the fallout from the State Capture report has weakened Zuma’s position within the ANC party, although he is unlikely to be ousted over the coming months given his significant support base within the ANC and amongst the general public.


Wits University fee increase fails to spark unrest

The timing of the announcement, during the summer vacation when the majority of the students are not in the vicinity of the university, likely explains the absence of protests to the 8 percent fee increase. Wits University is one of the universities that had witnessed the most student-led #FeesMustFall protests in September and October 2016, and the university likely timed the announcement deliberately to minimize the backlash. The Wits University Student Representative Council (SRC) did, however, denounce the decision. With this in mind, we assess that the risk of protests will remain elevated when students return to the universities in the beginning of January protests will resume, but it remains to be seen whether student leaders can reignite the movement’s previous momentum which peaked in September and October 2016.







SUDAN



Medium Risk

NOTABLE DATES

Current Situation


December

29

19-20
#Sudancivildisobediene campaign sees limited, varying adherence throughout country

Journalist protest outside government affiliated National Council for Press and Publications (NCPP)




Assessments & Forecast



Potential for additional anti-government mobilization persists despite underwhelming adherence, threat of force

December was primarily marked by an anti-government civil disobedience campaign which saw varied levels of adherence throughout the country. Launched under the banner of #sudancivildisobedience, the strike denounced the heavy-handed rule of President Omar al-Bashir, and more specifically his government’s removal of fuel subsidies which resulted in price hikes of goods and services, particularly petrol and electricity. Given the strike’s limited success, we assess that it may have lacked the scope, organization and general momentum provided by recurring street protests that led up to a similar 72 hour strike November 27, with the latter having saw extensive participation across multiple sectors of Sudanese society. We further assess that threats made by President Omar al-Bashir, who dared protesters to take the streets and risk a repeat of 2013’s bloody and lethal clashes between police and protesters, likewise dissuaded participation in any anti-government action.
Meanwhile, intimidation measures by the government were more evident in the country’s outlying areas.  In the generally more lawless and volatile Darfur and in South Kordofan regions, the deployment of security forces was likely carried out in anticipation of more aggressive anti-government actions, however we assess that this likewise intimidated and diminished adherence to the strike. Reports further indicate that government operatives instructed workplaces to catalogue employees not arriving at their post, suggesting more intrusive means of intimidation.
In light of the continuation of the government’s unpopular policies, going into January, there exists significant potential for further anti-government mobilizations, most likely in Khartoum and Omdurman particularly given. That said, owing to the relative ineffectiveness of the December 19-20 strike at effecting nationwide impact, there is reason to believe that this manner of protest may not yield appreciable results. Still, should labor actions or street protests manifest, they nevertheless harbor the underlying potential to be sizable given the anticipated support of student, civil society organizations and opposition parties. That said, given the hostile rhetoric of Bashir toward such efforts, as well as the government’s proven reliance on force to disperse and discourage such behavior, we assess that harsh crackdowns continues to pose an effective deterrent.

zimbabwe flag

ZIMBABWE



Medium Risk

NOTABLE DATES

Current Situation


NOVEMBER

30

16-17

13

13 opposition parties meet in Cape Town to discuss anti-Mugabe coalition ahead of 2018 presidential elections

MDC-T opposition party announces participation in 2018 elections, sets framework for coalition with Joice Mujuru’s Zim-PF party

Incumbent President Robert Mugabe confirmed as ruling ZANU-PF party candidate for 2018 elections




DECEMBER


Assessments & Forecast





Opposition prepares for 2018 elections, amid Mugabe’s rerun

Although the general elections in Zimbabwe are slated to take place only in mid-2018, the opposition parties and the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union Patriotic Front (Zanu-PF) party have been preparing for the polls for several months. Several developments have taken place in recent weeks in the shaping up of the coalitions ahead of the 2018 elections. While the meeting of 13 smaller opposition parties, is a notable development, given that none of the main opposition parties took part in them, namely the Movement for Democratic Change - Tsvangirai (MDC-T) party, former Vice President Joice Mujuru’s Zimbabwe People First (Zim-PF) party, and the Movement for Democratic Change Zimbabwe (MDCZ), the impact of this meeting is limited.

In this context, the MDC-T statement that refrains from the ‘No Reforms No Elections’ rhetoric used by the party since the 2014 election, and that included a boycotting of all by-elections since, is more significant, and is likely influenced by the perceived weakening position of President Mugabe amid growing criticism over his conduct as head of state and the fracturing of the ruling party. Contrastingly, the ruling ZANU-PF are putting effort in portraying a ‘business-as-usual’ mentality, backing 92 year old Robert Mugabe as the party’s candidate to the elections. Although he has received criticism from within the party itself, and with the succession battle already begun behind the scenes, publicly the party continues to back Mugabe. The power struggles within the party are likely to increase as elections draw nearer, given Mugabe’s age, and the efforts by the main factions to be in ‘Full Position’ for when he steps down.





EQUATORIAL GUINEA



Low Risk

NOTABLE DATES

Current Situation


DECEMBER

7

15
ICJ rejects immunity claim by VP Teodorin Obiang, trial slated for January 4 in Paris.

Two French, one Spaniard arrested over breach of bank secrecy charges in Malabo




Assessments & Forecast





Domestic implications over ICJ´s dismissal of Equatorial Guinea´s immunity claim

Amid continuous criticism over the government crackdown on political dissent, and Equatorial Guinea's participation in the Economic Community of Central African States (CEMAC) summit held in Yaoundé on December 23, it is the deteriorating relations with France, which continued to be the most notable development of the past month. On December, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) dismissed Equatorial Guinea´s claim to regarding Vice President Teodorin Nguema Obiang’s immunity as a senior government member, allowing a French criminal court to proceed with the trial over charges of embezzlement and corruption slated to begin on January 4. Teodorin’s trial follows the US seizure of a 30 million USD home in Malibu as well as the involvement of Swiss prosecutors. This trial sets a precedent in France, a country which has long turned a blind eye to African dictators who live lavish lifestyles in Paris. The trial is also likely to cause a backlash in the already tense relations between Equatorial Guinea and France, as already evidenced by the temporary detention of one Spanish and two French bankers accused of spying and collaborating with international anti-corruption organizations. The aforementioned bankers were reportedly managing accounts directly linked to individuals within the presidential entourage. Thus, further reprisal actions may take place, targeting French and other expatriates in Equatorial Guinea who are suspected of exposing the corrupt dealings of the Obiang regime, particularly as the trial progresses and exposes the scale of Teodorin’s graft. Nonetheless, such symbolic actions are unlikely to escalate to the level of significant or sustained disruptions in Equatorial Guinea’s trade with the West, given its dependence on foreign investments amidst the low price of oil, which represents the country’s main source of income.





GHANA



Low Risk

NOTABLE DATES

Current Situation


DECEMBER

7

11

9

General Elections in Ghana transpires peacefully with few localized violent incidents

President John Mahama (44.4 percent) of ruling NDC concedes defeat to NPP leader Nana Akufo-Addo (53.85), as EC release official results

NDC condemns alleged NPP attacks on its members, President Mahama orders police to arrest violent NPP supporters




Assessments & Forecast





Opposition wins relatively peaceful General Elections

Following a mildly tense atmosphere in the run up to the December 7 Ghanaian General Elections, mostly between the two main parties, ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC) and main opposition National Patriotic Party (NPP), the elections themselves transpired relatively peacefully. Furthermore, although there were fears that attempts will be made to rig the elections, the Electoral Commission (EC), which was highly criticized prior to the elections, proved to be efficient and vocal in combatting any effort to manipulate the results in the polling stations, thus minimizing the possibility for fraud. Opposition NPP party candidate Nana Akufo-Addo, won the majority of votes in all of the swing regions, Greater Accra, Central, Western, and Brong-Ahafo, and received more votes than in the previous elections in all of NDC’s stronghold regions of Volta, Northern, Upper East, and Upper West. In the parliamentary elections NPP won an absolute majority, and has increased the number of constituencies it won in each of the country’s regions. The results underscore the despair from President John Mahama’s administration, which was riddled with corruption, and a deteriorating financial situation.

Several challenges exist ahead of Akufo-Addo’s term as president, primarily stabilizing the economy. In this context, the growth rate of Ghana has been deteriorating throughout the NDC administration since 2008, reaching a 22 year low of 3.3 percent this year. Additionally, the rise in unemployment, as well as the recurring power cuts, known as “dumsor”, are topics that Akufo-Addo will need to overcome. Given that the elected vice-president, Mahamudu Bawumia, is a respected economist, it is likely that the NPP government will produce an all-encompassing economic vision on how to overcome the crisis. NPP is also likely to address corruption, or at least provide a public atmosphere that indicates the country is over the major corruption scandals. While Akufo-Addo already announced that he will not pursue NDC in a “witch-hunt”, we assess that he will likely take visible measures to address the issue, as the public has shown its discontent with the corruption of the Mahama administration.

Notable Dates




Have additional questions? Contact us at +44 20 3540 0434 or email us at intel@max-security.com

DISCLAIMER: Please note that any views and/or opinions and/or assessment and/or recommendations presented in this text are solely those of Max Security. If you are not the named addressee you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this text. If you are not the intended recipient you are notified that disclosing, copying, distributing or taking any action in reliance on the contents of this information is strictly prohibited. Max Security Solutions accepts no liability for (i) the contents of this text/report being correct, complete or up to date; (ii) consequences of any actions taken or not taken as a result and/or on the basis of such contents.  Copyright - 2016 Max Security
Directory: wp-content -> uploads -> 2017
2017 -> Leadership ohio
2017 -> Ascension Lutheran Church Counter’s Schedule January to December 2017
2017 -> Board of directors juanita Gibbons-Delaney, mha, rn president 390 Stone Castle Pass Atlanta, ga 30331
2017 -> Military History Anniversaries 16 thru 31 January Events in History over the next 15 day period that had U. S. military involvement or impacted in some way on U. S military operations or American interests
2017 -> The Or Shalom Cemetery Community Teaching on related issues of Integral
2017 -> Ford onthult samenwerking met Amazon Alexa en introduceert nieuwe navigatiemogelijkheden van Ford sync® 3 met Applink
2017 -> Start Learn and Increase gk. Question (1) Name the term used for talking on internet with the help of text messege?
2017 -> Press release from 24. 03. 2017 From a Charleston Car to a Mafia Sedan
2017 -> Tage Participants
2017 -> Citi Chicago Debate Championship Varsity and jv previews

Download 180.63 Kb.

Share with your friends:
1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11



The database is protected by copyright ©ininet.org 2024
send message
    Main page
international court