EVEN THOUGH THE OVERALL U.S. ECONOMY IS SLOWING, TEXAS’ ECONOMY IS DOING BETTER HTAN THE REST.
MITCHELL SCHNURMAN, JULY 20, 2008, “Schnurman: North Texas housing market is still troubled” http://www.star-telegram.com/business/columnists/mitchell_schnurman/story/770068.html
We averted one crisis last week, after the government pledged to keep the mortgage money flowing at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. But that doesn’t reverse the plight of the housing sector, which continues to tumble even in North Texas.
Our housing trends look a lot like our local economy: We’re much worse off in the important measures — home sales, starts and foreclosures — yet we’re still doing better than much of the country at large.
In North Texas, new-home sales dropped 27 percent in the 12 months ended in June, says research firm Metrostudy. Nationwide, new-home sales fell 40 percent from May 2007 to May 2008.
NON-UNIQUE
AFF—NON-UNIQUE: TEXAS HEADING INTO RECESSION
GllobeSt.com, July 17, 2008 http://www.globest.com/news/1202_1202/dallas/172423-1.html
The writing is on the wall for a "technical recession," Gaines says, pointing to rising food and energy prices, lower consumer spending, job losses, slow economic growth and high inflation. He echoes his peers in predicting the Fed will stop cutting interest rates as a stop-gap measure, adding mortgage rates most likely will stay flat or tick ever so slightly. The upshot is the economy will continue down its present path for the rest of this year and well into 2009.
1NC- PRICES
A) UNIQUE LINK: HIGH OIL PRICES ARE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND SAUDI ARABIA’S THRIVING ECONOMY NOW
FOREIGN AFFAIRS, THE KINGDOM OF SAUDI ARABIA Strategic Powerhouse, Global Strength Top 10 by 2010: Saudi Arabia is on track to be one of world's top 10 most competitive economies by the end of the decade.
5/1/08 “The Making of a Competitive Kingdom” http://www.foreignaffairs.org/sponsored_sections/country_focus/saudi_arabia/saudi_arabia_3.pdf
2007 was a very good year for Saudi Arabia. The unprecedented growth, development, and contagious optimism in the country continued unabated. With oil prices reaching up to $110 a barrel, Saudi smiles are no surprise. The Kingdom’s economy was built to thrive even under the $60 per barrel mark, and the recent surplus has poured valuable liquidity into the economy. However, the Kingdom is determined not to rely solely on such a volatile market, but rather use this window of opportunity and healthy 3.5 percent GDP growth to prove sustainability can in fact become a reality. Prosperity has become synonymous with the reign of King Abdullah, and the Saudi people’s great optimism underlines the monarch’s vision for his country’s future. Grand new economic and industrial cities arising from the desert, large-scale interconnecting infrastructural networks, state-of-the-art universities and educational facilities, and social and legislative reforms are part and parcel of making Saudi Arabia one of the ten most competitive nations on the face of the earth. However, 2007 and 2008 will be remembered not for new buildings, megacities, roads, or ports, but for the country’s strongest investment in human capital yet, a clear sign that Saudi Arabia is emerging as one of the world’s most competitive economies. The nation’s most plentiful, prosperous, and renewable resource is its strikingly young and rapidly expanding population. Thus, the king has put his country on a new path towards competitiveness and prosperity. In addition, the king is seen to be a great reformist and his views towards liberalizing the role of women in Saudi Arabia have come across both domestically and internationally as progressive and positive for the nation. On a global level, Saudi Arabia has never been such a vital partner in securing regional and global security, and has played pivotal roles in recent global summits, notably bringing an all-important Saudi presence to the Annapolis peace conference last November. Saudi Arabia is increasingly called upon by states of all sorts to play the regional power broker and, as the heart of Arabia and home of the two holy mosques of Mecca and Medina, it is the role that Saudi Arabia was born to play. Economists have described this moment in Saudi history as “when all the stars align” and the current economic window as “not to be missed.” It is a monumental moment in the Kingdom’s development and the region in general. Yet will it be able to sustain its tremendous growth with all the multibillion-dollar investments being made, especially in the fields of education and knowledge provision? The king’s vision seems to have become his people’s ambition, and with such a widespread motivation to succeed, is there anything that can stop this highly dynamic, confident, and influential Kingdom?
1NC- PRICES
B) <>
C) PRICE DIPS CAUSE SAUDI CIVIL WAR. STRONG SAUDI ARABIA KEY TO CHECK A NUCLEAR IRAN
Arena Resources Inc., Why Flooding the Worldwide Market Place with Oil Will Not Stop Iran from Achieving their Nuclear Ambitions; Lowering oil prices may have worked against the Soviet Union in the mid 1980s but it will not work against Iran; Such a Move Would Increase Risk of Nuclear Terrorism http://doktorstocks.blogspot.com/2007/01/why-flooding-worldwide-market-place.html
1/11/07
Iran vs. OPEC
OPEC would be badly damaged. Any price cuts would not only bring down the Iranian economy but also the economy of Saudi Arabia and all the rest of the OPEC countries. The OPEC countries are not willing to allow self inflicted wounds to their economies. Damage to the Saudi Economy would do more harm to their economy than Iran. A damaged Saudi economy could drive their citizens to revolt and a more dangerous radical regime could emerge to power in that country.
FSU and Lower Prices
Sharply lower oil prices could create incentive for the FSU to sell some of their nuclear warheads on the black market. Iran would be a customer.
In summary, lower oil prices will not stop Iran from building a nuclear arsenal. Investors should doubt any conspiracy theories that surround Saudi Arabia opening the wellheads to flood the worldwide marketplace with oil in order to drive down prices and bankrupt Iran. Such a move would increase instability within Saudi Arabia, threaten the very existence of the Saudi monarchy and would not stop Iran from becoming a nuclear power. The only way to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power is the use of military force.
D) SAUDI CIVIL WAR CAUSES US ECONOMIC DECLINE AND WMD PROLIFERATION
Stephen David, 1999, Professor of Political Science at The Johns Hopkins University, SAVING AMERICA FROM THE COMING CIVIL WARS
http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/detail?vid=1&hid=2&sid=c2660f14-2e09-4272-87dd-a190a4504351%40sessionmgr3&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=bth&AN=1417620
Conflicts fought within the borders of a single state send shock waves far beyond their frontiers. To begin with, internal wars risk destroying assets the United States needs. Were the Persian Gulf oil fields destroyed in a Saudi civil war, the American economy (and those of the rest of the developed world) would suffer severely. Internal wars can also unleash threats that stable governments formerly held in check. As central governments weaken and fall, weapons of mass destruction may fall into the hands of rogue leaders or anti-American factions. More directly, internal wars endanger American citizens living and traveling abroad. Liberia will not be the last place America sends helicopters to rescue its stranded citizens. Finally, internal wars, when they erupt on U.S. borders, threaten to destabilize America itself. U.S. intervention in Haiti was spurred, in large part, by fear of the flood of refugees poised to enter the United States.
All of these dangers are grave enough to warrant consideration; what makes them even more serious is the fact that their impact on America is largely unintended. Being unintended, the spill-off effects of civil wars are not easily deterred, which creates unique challenges to American interests. U.S. policymakers have traditionally tried to sway foreign leaders through a simple formula: ensure that the benefits of defying America are outweighed by the punishment that the United States will inflict if defied. That calculus, however, no longer applies when there is no single, rational government in place to deter. This raises the cost to America; if the United States (or any country) cannot deter a threat, it must turn to actual self-defense or preemption instead. Unlike deterrence, these strategies are enormously difficult to carry out and in some cases (such as preventing the destruction of the Saudi oil fields) would be impossible. Without deterrence as a policy option, Washington loses its most effective means of safeguarding its interests.
1NC- PRICES
E) Economic collapse causes genocide and destruction of all civilization
Lewis, environmental historian, University of Colorado-Boulder, '98(Chris H., THE COMING AGE OF SCARCITY, p. 56)
Most critics would argue, probably correctly that instead of allowing underdeveloped countries to withdraw from the global economy and undermine the economies of the developed world, the United States, Europe, Japan, and others will fight neocolonial wars to force these countries to remain within this collapsing global economy. These neocolonial wars will results in mass death, suffering, and even regional nuclear wars. If First World countries choose military confrontation and political repression to maintain the global economy, then we may see mass death and genocide on a global scale that will make the deaths of World War II pale in comparison. However, these neocolonial wars, fought to maintain thee developed nations' economic and political hegemony, will cause the final collapse of our global industrial civilization. These wars will so damage the complex economic and trading networks and squander material, biological, and energy resources that they will undermine the global economy and its ability to support the earth's six to eight billion population. This would be the worst-case scenario for the collapse of global civilization.
Share with your friends: |
