Project proposal

Annex 5

1. The World Bank (Bank) has gained substantial experience and understanding of the financial management environment in Afghanistan through the large number of projects under implementation over the past four years. The Public Administration Capacity Building Project (PACBP) is the primary instrument to continue and enhance the fiduciary measures put in place during the past years to help ensure transparency and accountability for the funding provided by the Bank and other donors.

2. A Public Finance Management (PFM) performance rating system using 28 high-level indicators that was developed by the Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) multi-agency partnership program was applied in Afghanistan in June 2005. PEFA is comprised of the Bank, IMF, EC, and several other agencies. The system is structured around six core dimensions of PFM performance: i) budget credibility, ii) comprehensiveness and transparency, iii) policy-based budgeting, iv) predictability and control in budget execution, v) accounting, recording, and reporting, and vi) external scrutiny and audit. Afghanistan’s ratings against the PFM performance indicators generally portray a public sector where financial resources are, by and large, being used for their intended purposes. This has been accomplished with very high levels of support from international firms; this assistance will continue to be needed over the medium term if these ratings are to be maintained. There is also much room for improvement.

3. In spite of undeniable progress the policy framework benchmarks have not yet been fully costed so various priorities are funded through the annual budgeting process. The rising costs of the security sector constitute the major constraint on attainment of fiscal sustainability. With regard to executive oversight, the national assembly will play an increasingly active role. All in all, the new national strategy has created high expectations of the executive which could prove to be quite difficult to meet.

4. The public sector, in spite of considerable efforts to reform its core functions, remains extremely weak outside of Kabul. The lack of qualified staff in the civil service and the absence of qualified counterparts in the government after 30 years of war and conflicts is a binding constraint. Delays in reforming the pay structure and grading of civil servants have crippled the public administration of the country. Domestic revenues lag behind expenditures by a factor of ten to one. Large-scale corruption could emerge to undermine the government’s efforts to enhance aid flows through national accounts. Capacities to track expenditures and monitor expenditure outcomes have improved, but they need rapid and substantial strengthening if progress toward the attainment of national development targets is to be monitored. Currently, 75% of external revenues bypass government appropriation systems.

5. The Bank is financing a Financial Management Advisor to assist the Ministry of Finance (MoF), an Audit Advisor to assist the Control and Audit Office, and a Procurement Advisor to assist in Procurement-related activities. Also an Internal Audit function is being developed within the MoF with Bank financing. USAID, and earlier the Indian Aid Assistance Program, is financing a team of consultants and advisors to assist the Da Afghanistan Bank in local as well as foreign currency operations. The activities carried out under the existing Public Administration projects have helped the GoA to ensure that appropriate fiduciary standards are maintained for public expenditures, including those supported by the Bank and the donor community.

6. Progress has been slower than expected in shifting from operations support provided by the three Advisors to capacity development and knowledge transfer to the civil servants. Given that, is expected that the Advisors will continue to be required for the medium term. Challenges still remain in attaining the agreed upon fiduciary standards and also to further enhance them. And to make matters more complex, the regulatory environment in Afghanistan has advanced significantly in the past three years. Unfortunately, even mastery of basic skills in the early environment does not fully qualify the civil servants to work effectively in the new emerging environment.
Risk Assessment and Mitigation

7. The table below identifies the key risks that the project may face and indicates how these risks are to be addressed. The overall financial management risk rating is “High” but the residual risk rating after application of the mitigating measures is “Substantial”.