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PUBLIC FORUM DEBATE

January 2009
Dr. John F. Schunk, Editor
Resolved: That, by 2040, the federal government should mandate that all new passenger vehicles and light trucks sold in the United States be powered by alternative fuels.”
PRO

P01. U.S. RELIANCE ON GASOLINE IS UNSUSTAINABLE

P02. OIL IMPORTS JEOPARDIZE U.S. SECURITY

P03. CLIMATE CHANGE THREATENS WORLD SURVIVAL

P04. THERE ARE MANY ALTERNATIVES TO GASOLINE

P05. ETHANOL IS AN EFFECTIVE ALTERNATIVE

P06. CELLULOSIC BIOFUELS ARE AN EFFECTIVE ALTERNATIVE

P07. HYDROGEN IS AN EFFECTIVE ALTERNATIVE

P08. NOW IS THE TIME FOR A FEDERAL MANDATE

P09. AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY CAN MEET MANDATE

P10. 2040 IS A REASONABLE DEADLINE
CON

C01. WORLD OIL SUPPLIES ARE PLENTIFUL

C02. OIL IMPORTS DON’T JEOPARDIZE U.S. SECURITY

C03. CLIMATE CHANGE IS EXAGGERATED

C04. ALTERNATIVE FUELS ARE DEVELOPING WITHOUT MANDATE

C05. BICYCLES ARE AN ALTERNATIVE

C06. ALTERNATIVE FUELS CANNOT REPLACE GASOLINE

C07. ETHANOL IS DOOMED TO FAILURE

C08. CELLULOSIC BIOFUELS ARE DOOMED TO FAILURE

C09. HYDROGEN IS DOOMED TO FAILURE

C10. ELECTRIC VEHICLES ARE DOOMED TO FAILURE

C11. LIQUEFIED COAL IS DOOMED TO FAILURE

C12. AUTO INDUSTRY WILL CIRCUMVENT MANDATES

C13. AUTO INDUSTRY BANKRUPTCY WILL DESTROY ECONOMY




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SK/P01. U.S. RELIANCE ON GASOLINE IS UNSUSTAINABLE
1. WORLD OIL SUPPLIES ARE BEING RAPIDLY DEPLETED
SK/P01.01) Alec Rasizade [Historical Research Center], CONTEMPORARY REVIEW, Autumn 2008, p. 273, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has published recently in Paris its latest World Energy Outlook, in which it projected an increase in the world oil demand from the present 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 120 mb/d by 2030.
SK/P01.02) Alec Rasizade [Historical Research Center], CONTEMPORARY REVIEW, Autumn 2008, p. 273, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The coming era of permanent decline in oil production with its profound economic and social implications is absolutely certain, given the fact that at least 70 per cent of today's oil comes from the deposits discovered before 1970. The significance of this situation should become apparent when we realize that, for every newly discovered barrel of oil, three barrels are being consumed.
SK/P01.03) Alec Rasizade [Historical Research Center], CONTEMPORARY REVIEW, Autumn 2008, p. 273, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Mass media periodically inform us about the abundant oil becoming available from the Caspian region, from the tar sands of Canada, from the heavy oil deposits of Venezuela and, in theory, the enormous fields of shale in the middle of the United States, which ostensibly contain more barrels of oil than the entire Middle East. My advice is to ignore this sheer bluff, since much of the scam is intended to increase share prices of oil companies and the flow of investment capital into the oil sector.
SK/P01.04) Steven Hayward [American Enterprise Institute], THE AMERICAN, May-June 2007, p. 90, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Right now, the U.S. has about 22 billion barrels of "proven" oil reserves, which are defined as "reasonably certain to be recoverable in future years under existing economic and operating conditions." This represents about a three-year supply at our present consumption rate. New reserves are being found all the time, and predicting when oil reservoirs will run dry is a risky business. There are an estimated 112 billion barrels more of oil that could be recovered with existing drilling and production technology. Together with existing reserves, this would represent 15 years' worth of oil use.
SK/P01.05) George Leopold, ELECTRONIC ENGINEERING TIMES, November 3, 2008, p. 4, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. "Drill, baby, drill!" That's the mantra of those who would continue down the well-trodden path of oil addiction, global warming and national insecurity. According to geologists who have studied the issue, it could take at least a decade to deliver to the pump any oil found off the U.S. East Coast. Experts who have examined test holes have concluded that the likelihood of finding significant oil reserves off the East Coast, where there has so far been little offshore drilling, is "very slim."

2. OIL USAGE IN U.S. IS NEARLY ALL FOR GASOLINE
SK/P01.06) Steven Hayward [American Enterprise Institute], THE AMERICAN, May-June 2007, p. 90, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Oil certainly poses unique political challenges, but it accounts for about two-fifths of total American energy use, almost entirely in the transportation sector.
SK/P01.07) Steve Stein [financial adviser], POLICY REVIEW, August-September 2006, p. 53, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Since oil accounts for only about 40 percent of our total energy consumption but 90 percent of the energy we use each year for transportation, ending an addiction to oil means reducing the consumption of gasoline.
3. U.S. WILL RUN OUT OF OIL BY 2037
SK/P01.08) John Schaeffer [founder and President of Real Goods], EARTH ISLAND JOURNAL, Autumn 2007, p. 51, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Twenty-five years from now puts us at 2032, and the US Congress Office of Technology Assessment said we will run out of oil in 2037.
4. OIL SHORTAGES WILL SPARK SOCIAL CHAOS AND WARFARE
SK/P01.09) Peter Katel, CQ RESEARCHER, January 4, 2008, p. 1. Some oil experts warn of even bigger price shocks to come as oil-producing nations use more and more of their own oil, and energy demand jumps 50 percent by 2030. Some experts predict an oil "production crunch" within four to five years that will have severe geopolitical and economic impacts, and one expert says the energy supply-demand gap could create "social chaos and war" by 2020.
SK/P01.10) Alec Rasizade [Historical Research Center], CONTEMPORARY REVIEW, Autumn 2008, p. 273, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Consider just these figures: there are 900 million vehicles on the world's roads today and, according to a Royal Dutch Shell estimate, with the growth of China and India, there will be 2 billion by 2050. What kind of fuel will move those 2 billion vehicles, and what will be the cost of that fuel? If production continues to fall while demand continues to rise, oil prices will spike wildly, raising the prospect of economic chaos and even wars, as countries will fight over the oil reserves. It is an open secret that the US intervention in Kuwait in 1991 and the invasion of Iraq in 2003 were about the oil.

SK/P02. OIL IMPORTS JEOPARDIZE U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY
1. U.S. OIL SUPPLY DEPENDS HEAVILY UPON IMPORTS
SK/P02.01) Alec Rasizade [Historical Research Center], CONTEMPORARY REVIEW, Autumn 2008, p. 273, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The USA, with its daily oil consumption of 20 mb/d, of which 15 mb/d are imported, is spending now $730 billion for the import of oil annually and $2 billion daily. The entire GDP of the USA was $14 trillion in 2007, so the cost of oil import swallows a disproportionally large portion of its GDP.
SK/P02.02) Robert J. Samuelson, NEWSWEEK, March 17, 2008, p. 45, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Dependence on oil imports, now almost 60 percent of our supply, is inevitable. We simply use too much and produce too little.
SK/P02.03) Steven Hayward [American Enterprise Institute], THE AMERICAN, May-June 2007, p. 90, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The Department of Energy predicts that oil imports will grow from the current rate of 10 million barrels a day to 17 million barrels a day by the year 2030. The reason is simple: demand for oil will keep rising (by about 30 percent by 2030) and domestic supply won't.
2. IMPORTS ARE HIGHLY UNRELIABLE
SK/P02.04) Umesh Kher, TIME, June 13, 2005, p. A6, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. What does alternative energy have to do with national security? Gray and Podesta are part of an unlikely alliance of neoconservatives, farmers and union and environmental leaders who want to wean the U.S. of its oil habit--some for purely green reasons (to stave off global warming), but others for the sake of cutting U.S. dependence on the volatile Middle East.
SK/P02.05) Steve Stein [financial adviser], POLICY REVIEW, August-September 2006, p. 53, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Of the United States' four largest suppliers--Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia--only Canada is entirely reliable. Venezuela's dictator, Hugo Chavez, competes with Fidel Castro for the role of chief antagonist in this hemisphere. Saudi Arabia's relations with this country are as problematic as its relations with its own disaffected extremists. Mexico (which was, incidentally, the first country to nationalize oil concessions that had been held by American companies) shares a border with the United States that is strung with barbed wire and guarded by immigration vigilantes.
3. DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTS THREATENS U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY
SK/P02.06) George Leopold, ELECTRONIC ENGINEERING TIMES, November 3, 2008, p. 4, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Energy independence is a paramount national security issue, and clean, renewable energy has become a real market that will generate jobs and profits for those wise enough to invest.

4. ALTERNATIVE FUELS WILL REDUCE FOREIGN DEPENDENCE
SK/P02.07) Jay Leno, POPULAR MECHANICS, May 2008, p. 48, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The more alternatives to gasoline we have--you know, cars that run on E85, natural gas or hydrogen fuel cells--the less foreign oil we will consume in the long run.
5. ALTERNATIVE FUELS WILL ENHANCE U.S. SECURITY
SK/P02.08) James A. Duffield [senior agricultural economist, U.S. Department of Agriculture], AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, December 2008, p. 1239, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. A common theme among the three papers is the need to develop policies that encourage feedstock diversity (i.e., bioenergy production in the United States needs to be expanded beyond corn-based ethanol). Reducing trade barriers should be considered as well as adopting more policies that encourage investment in alternative conversion technologies. Combining the use of alternative fuels with more fuel-efficient vehicles would promote future energy security without sacrificing food security.
6. REDUCTION OF IMPORTS PROMOTES WAR AGAINST TERRORISM
SK/P02.09) Steve Dunn [Professor Emeritus of Political Science & Environmental Studies, Western State College of Colorado], THE HUMANIST, September-October 2007, p. 25, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. In a recent survey of several thousand U.S. national security experts, 78 percent said that the single most important thing the United States could do to fight terrorism would be to reduce its oil dependence on the Middle East. Control over the flow of oil is a potent weapon to aim at the world's economies and, more than any other source, oil finances terrorism.

SK/P03. CLIMATE CHANGE THREATENS WORLD SURVIVAL
1. GLOBAL WARMING IS ACCELERATING
SK/P03.01) Bil McKibben, MOTHER JONES, November-December 2008, p. 40, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. It was September 2007 that the tide began to turn. Every summer Arctic sea ice melts, and every fall it refreezes. The amount of open water has been steadily increasing for three decades, a percent or two every year--it's been going at about the pace that the hairline recedes on a middle-aged man. It was worrisome, and scientists said all the summer ice could be gone by 2070 or so, which is an eyeblink in geologic time but an eternity in politician time. In late summer of last year, though, the melt turned into a rout-it was like those stories of people whose hair turns gray overnight. An area the size of Colorado was disappearing every week; the Northwest Passage was staying wide open all September, for the first time in history. Before long the Arctic night mercifully descended and the ice began to refreeze, but scientists were using words like "astounding." They were recalculating-by one NASA scientist's estimate the summer Arctic might now be free of ice by 2012.
2. FOSSIL FUELS ARE PRIMARY CAUSE OF GLOBAL WARMING
SK/P03.02) Amy Greer et al. [Research Institute of The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto], CANADIAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION JOURNAL, March 11, 2008, p. 715, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was established by the United Nations Environment Program and the World Meteorological Organization in 1988 to provide objective analysis of data related to climate change. The panel comprises scientists from around the globe and aims to present the scientific, technical and socioeconomic issues arising from the data to government decision-makers in a policy-neutral context. In April 2007, the panel issued a report on the impact of global climate change on human and animal populations. This report was based on about 30,000 observations of changes in physical and biological systems worldwide. More than 90% of these changes are attributable to human activities such as the combustion of fossil fuels.
SK/P03.03) Dan Rosenblum & Charles Komanoff [Co-Directors, Carbon Tax Center], TIKKUN, July-August 2007, p. 52, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. From Hurricane Katrina and the inundation of island nations to heat waves in Europe and drought in Australia, climate change is wreaking horrific damage. It's going to get worse, perhaps much worse, before it gets better. According to James Hansen, head of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies www.giss.nasa.gov and the preeminent scientist warning the world about global warming, the Earth has already warmed one degree Fahrenheit over the past thirty years. Another degree is in the pipeline because of gases that are already in the atmosphere, and still another degree is in store because of carbon dioxide emissions that will spew for decades from our growing energy infrastructure of fossil fuel-powered electricity generating plants--largely coal-fired--along with refineries processing petroleum and natural gas to fuel our cars and trucks, planes and homes, factories and shopping malls.

SK/P03.04) Jeffrey Kluger, TIME, April 9, 2007, p. 50, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued a report on the state of planetary warming in February that was surprising only in its utter lack of hedging. "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal," the report stated. What's more, there is "very high confidence" that human activities since 1750 have played a significant role by overloading the atmosphere with carbon dioxide hence retaining solar heat that would otherwise radiate away.


3. GLOBAL WARMING SPREADS DISEASE AND DESTRUCTION
SK/P03.05) Norm Dixon [member of Australia’s Democratic Socialist Perspective], SYNTHESIS/REGENERATION, Fall 2007, p. 33, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. If greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced, sea levels are forecast to rise between 20 centimeters and one meter by 2100, flooding some of the world's most densely populated cities. Global warming will trigger severe storms and floods, worse droughts and expanding deserts, severe shortages of fresh water and increased epidemics of dangerous tropical diseases.
SK/P03.06) Amy Greer et al. [Research Institute of The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto], CANADIAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION JOURNAL, March 11, 2008, p. 715, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Warmer temperatures and altered rainfall patterns are likely to increase the range and burden of vector-borne infectious diseases in North America and elsewhere. Altered patterns of rainfall and increased frequency of extreme weather events are likely to influence the incidence of water-borne gastrointestinal and respiratory diseases in North America and elsewhere.
4. CARBON EMISSIONS KILL THOUSANDS
SK/P03.07) FOREIGN POLICY, March-April 2008, p. 24, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. For the first time, new research directly links increased emissions to an increase in human deaths. Using one of the most sophisticated computer climate models ever created, Mark Jacobson, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Stanford University, has shown that, for every single-degree Celsius rise in global temperatures, increased CO2 emissions lead to about 21,600 more deaths each year. That's because, as the world warms, levels of corrosive ozone gas and toxic particles in the air also increase, particularly in places that already have a great deal of pollution. Inhaling the ozone gas and particles leads to more respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses, which for many people will turn deadly.

5. THE SURVIVAL OF PLANET EARTH IS AT STAKE
SK/P03.08) Hillary Rosner, AUDUBON, March-April 2008, p. 154, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. At two degrees we'll also see a rise in deadly heat waves, like the one that hit Europe in 2003; crippling wildfires; faster-melting glaciers; disappearing coastlines, polar bears, and vital urban water supplies; and the obliteration of "a large swath of natural biodiversity." Suffice it to say that the horror story only worsens from there, with most of the planet becoming virtually unrecognizable, and leaving millions of humans--those of us who don't starve to death or perish in the inevitable nuclear battles over the last remaining resources--to desperately roam the planet in search of food.
SK/P03.09) Steve Dunn [Professor Emeritus of Political Science & Environmental Studies, Western State College of Colorado], THE HUMANIST, September-October 2007, p. 25, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The last time the planet was 5.4 degrees cooler than now we were in an Ice Age. Five degrees warmer might quickly change the natural world just as dramatically. With somewhere between a three- to five-degree increase, we'll likely see the twenty-foot-plus ocean level rise depicted in An Inconvenient Truth from the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps, on top of the expected ten to twenty inches from thermal expansion and ongoing ice melt. Mix in stronger storms coming in over these new coastlines, unbearable heat and drought in the Southwest and elsewhere, a 20-30 percent species extinction rate (closer to 50 percent at a 5.4 degree increase), and--suffice it to say, we're facing disaster.
SK/P03.10) Bil McKibben, MOTHER JONES, November-December 2008, p. 40, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. From the moment in 1988 when a NASA scientist named James Hansen told Congress that burning coal and gas and oil was warming the earth, we've struggled to absorb this one truth: The central fact of our economic lives (the ubiquitous fossil fuel that developed the developed world) is wrecking the central fact of our physical lives (the stable climate and sea level on which civilization rests).
SK/P03.11) Bil McKibben, MOTHER JONES, November-December 2008, p. 40, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The final piece of the puzzle came early this year, and again from James Hansen. Twenty years after his crucial testimony, he published a paper with several coauthors called "Target Atmospheric CO2." It put, finally, a number on the table-indeed it did so in the boldest of terms. "If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted," it said, "paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm."

SK/P04. THERE ARE MANY ALTERNATIVES TO GASOLINE
1. MANY ALTERNATIVES TO GASOLINE CAN BE DEVELOPED
SK/P04.01) George Leopold, ELECTRONIC ENGINEERING TIMES, November 3, 2008, p. 4, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. We believe that many of the answers to our energy dilemma will come from a new generation of engineers who will create innovative ways to make renewable energy sources a viable economic alternative to fossil fuels. As one European expert put it at alternative energy technology conference earlier this year, the Earth's near-term energy future hinges on "fossil-assisted solar power," not the other way around.
2. ALTERNATIVE FUELS WILL PROVIDE SECURE CLEAN ENERGY
SK/P04.02) EBONY, November 2008, p. 132, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The growing concern about America's dependence on foreign oil is prompting changes in the automotive landscape, and carmakers are focusing on creating new vehicles that function without gasoline. Three of these alternative energy sources include hydrogen, electricity and natural gas, all of which not only power the vehicles, but are also environment-friendly.
SK/P04.03) Ronald G. Nelson [independent energy consultant], PIPELINE & GAS JOURNAL, February 2007, p. 62, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Global warming and "global slowing" due to crude oil depletion are interrelated. The U.S. can have a major impact on solving both problems by taking the lead in conserving the remaining energy resources dramatically, and as soon as possible, and seeking newer, innovative alternatives to gradually wean our dependence on oil to a broader range of oil-independent energy resources.
3. HYBRID VEHICLES CAN REDUCE OIL USAGE AND EMISSIONS
SK/P04.04) Steven Hayward [American Enterprise Institute], THE AMERICAN, May-June 2007, p. 90, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Since the big energy problem is with transportation, one solution would be to draw power for cars and trucks from the electrical grid which itself is powered by coal, natural gas, and nuclear energy. Hybrid electric cars would draw a charge by being plugged into the grid overnight, unlike current hybrids that charge only from braking motion while being driven. According to some estimates, an auto fleet that was 50 percent plug-in hybrid by 2025 would save as much as 8 million barrels of oil a day (about 40 percent of our current consumption).
SK/P04.05) Peter Katel, CQ RESEARCHER, January 4, 2008, p. 15. But a July 2007 report gives ammunition to the PHEV [plug-in hybrid electric vehicles] advocates. After an 18-month study, the Electric Power Research Institute and the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), an environmental group, concluded that widespread use of plug-in hybrids would, in 2050, reduce oil consumption by 3-4 million barrels a day. It would also cut greenhouse gas emissions by 450 million metric tons a year - the equivalent of taking 82.5 million cars off the road.

4. ELECTRIC VEHICLES CAN ELIMINATE CARBON EMISSIONS
SK/P04.06) Steve Heckeroth [Contributing Editor], MOTHER EARTH NEWS, December 2007, p. 50, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Electric vehicle drivetrains are inherently five to 10 times more efficient than internal combustion engines and they produce no greenhouse gases at the tailpipe. Even if powered by fossil-fuel electricity; emissions at the power plant are much lower per mile traveled than with internal combustion engines. In addition, electric vehicles can be charged directly from renewable sources, thereby eliminating emissions altogether.
SK/P04.07) EBONY, November 2008, p. 132, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The Chevy Volt, designed to use a common 110-volt household electric plug, is scheduled to hit the market by 2010, but there is an urgency to make it available sooner. For someone who drives less than 40 miles a day, the car will use no gasoline and produce no emissions. For longer trips, the car's range-extending power source kicks in.
5. USING NATURAL GAS AS FUEL REDUCES EMISSIONS
SK/P04.08) EBONY, November 2008, p. 132, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Natural gas is less expensive than gasoline or diesel, selling in some areas for less than $1 a gallon. Vehicles powered by natural gas combine top performance with low emissions (23 percent lower than diesel and 30 percent lower than gasoline). Currently, only 150,000 are in use in the United States.

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