Table of contents key findings


Circulation and Variability



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Circulation and Variability

609. Archer,C.L. and Caldeira,K. 2008. Historical trends in the jet streams. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L08803, doi:10.1029/2008GL033614, 2008.

610. Schmidt,T., Wickert,J., Beyerle,G. and Heise,S. 2008. Global tropopause height trends estimated from GPS radio occultation data. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L11806, doi:10.1029/2008GL034012, 2008.

611. Semenov,V.A., Latif,M., Jungclaus,J.H. and Park,W. 2008. Is the observed NAO variability during the instrumental record unusual? Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L11701. do1:10.1029/2008GL033273, 2008.

612. Vecchi,G.A., Soden,B.J., Wittenberg,A.T. et al. 2006. Weakening of the tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature 441:73-76.

613. Latif,M., Böning,C., Willebrand,J. et al. 2006. Is thermohaline circulation changing? J. Climate 19:4631-4637.

614. McGregor,H.V., Dima,M., Fischer,H.W. and Mulitza,S. 2007. Rapid 20th-century increase in coastal upwelling off northwest Africa. Science 315:637-640.

615. Searl,Y., Banks,H.T., Stark,S. and Wood,R.A. 2007. Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A climate model perspective. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34,L03610, doi:10.1029/2006GL028504, 2007.

616. Våge,K., Pickart,R.S., Thierry,V. et al. 2008. Surprising return of deep convection to the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean in winter 2007-2008. Nature Geoscience Online, doi:10.1038/NGO382.

617. Wolf,J., and Woolf,D.K. 2006. Waves and climate change in the north-east Atlantic. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L06604, doi:10.1029/2005/GL025133.

618. Nicholls, N. 2008. Recent trends in seasonal and temporal behaviour of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L19703, doi:10.1029/2008GL034499, 2008.



5.2.6 Climate Extremes

619. Della-Marta, P.M., M.R. Haylock, J. Luterbacher, and H. Wanner, 2007. Doubled length of western European summer heat waves since 1880. JGR 112, D15103, doi:10.1029/2007JD008510

620. Jones,G.S., Stott,P.A. and Christidis,N. 2008. Human contribution to rapidly increasing frequency of very warm Northern Hemisphere summers. JGR 113, D02109, doi:10.1029/2007JD008914, 2008.

621. Ho,E. and Gough,W.A. 2006. Freeze thaw cycles in Toronto, Canada in a changing climate. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 83:203-210.

622. Nogaj,M., Yiou,P., Parey,S. et al. 2006. Amplitude and frequency of temperature extremes over the North Atlantic region. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L10801, doi:10.1029/2005GL024251, 2006.

623. Peterson,T.C., Zhang,X., Brunet-India,M. and Vázquez-Aguirre,J.L. 2008. Changes in North American extremes derived from daily weather data. JGR 113, D07113, doi:10.1029/2007JD009453, 2008.

624. Scaife,A.A., Folland,C.K., Alexander,L.V. et al. 2008. European climate extremes and the North Atlantic oscillations. J. Climate 21:72-83.

625. Vincent,L.A and Mekis,E. 2006. Changes in daily and extreme temperature and precipitation indices for Canada over the twentieth century. Atmosphere-Ocean 44:177-193.

626. Yagouti,A., Boulet,G., Vincent,L. et al. 2008. Observed changes in daily temperature and precipitation indices for southern Québec, 1960-2005. Atmosphere-Ocean 46:243-256.

627. Lau,K.-M., Zhou,Y.P. and Wu., H.-T. 2008. Have tropical cyclones been feeding more extreme rainfall? JGR 113: D23113, doi:10.1029/2008JD009963, 2008.

628. Cao,Z. 2008. Severe hail frequency over Ontario, Canada: Recent trend and variability. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L14803, doi:10.1029/2008GL034888, 2008.

629. Haylock,M.R., Peterson,T.C., Alves,L.M. et al. 2006. Trends in total and extreme South American rainfall in 1960-2000 and links with sea surface temperature. J. Climate 19:1490-1512.

630. Wang,X.L. 2006. Climatology and trends in some adverse and fair weather conditions in Canada, 1953-2004. JGR 111,D09105, doi:10.1029/2005JD006155, 2006.

631. Chang,E.K.M. 2007. Assessing the increasing trend in Northern Hemisphere winter storm track activity using surface ship observations and a statistical storm track model. J. Climate 20: 5607-5628

632. Wang,X.L., Swail,V.R. and Zwiers,F.W. 2006. Climatology and changes of extratropical cyclone activity: Comparison of ERA-40 with NCEP-NCAR reanalysis for 1958-2001. J. Climate 19:3145-3167.

633. Aumann,H.H., Ruzmaikin,A. and Teixeira,J. 2008. Frequency of severe storms and global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L19805, doi:10.1029/2008GL034562, 2008.

634. Bromirski,P.D. and Kossin,J.P. 2008. Increasing hurricane wave power along the U.S. Altantic and Gulf coasts. JGR 113, C07012, doi:10.1029/2007JC004706, 2008.

635. Caron,L.-P. and Jones,C.G. 2007. Analyzing present, past and future tropical cyclone activity as inferred from an ensemble of coupled global climate models. Tellus 60A:80-96.

636. Chan,J.C.L. 2006. Comment on “Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration and intensity in a warming environment”. Science 311:1713b.

637. Englehart,P.J., Lewis,M.D. and Douglas,A.V. 2008. Defining the frequency of near-shore tropical cyclone activity in the eastern North Pacific from historical surface observations (1921-2005). Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L03706, doi:10.1029/2007GL032546, 2008.

638. Fudeyasu,H., Iizuka,S. and Matsuura,T. 2006. Impact of ENSO on landfall characteristics of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific during the summer monsoon season. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L21815, doi:10.1029/2006GL027449, 2006.

639. Hoyos, C.D., Agudelo, P.A., Webster, P.K. and Curry, J.A. 2006. Deconvolution of the factors contributing to the increase in global hurricane intensity. Science 312:94-97.

640. Klotzbach,P.J. 2006. Trends in global tropical cyclone activity over the last twenty years (1986-2005). Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L10805, doi:10.1029/2006GL025881, 2006.

641. Kuleshov,Y., Qi,L., Fawcett,R. and Jones,D. 2008. On tropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere: Trends and the ENSO connection. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L14S08, doi:10.1029/2007GL032983, 2008.

642. Webster,P.J., Curry,J.A., Liu,J. and Holland,G.J. 2006. Response to comment on “Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration and intensity in a warming environment”. Science 311:1713c.

643. Bengtsson,L. and Hodges,K.I. 2008. Comment on “Is the number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones significantly underestimated prior to the availability of satellite observations?” by Edmund K.M. Chang and Yanjuan Guo. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35,L09810, doi:10.1029/2007GL032251, 2008.

644. Besonen,M.R., Bradley,R.S., Mudelsee,M. et al. 2008. A 1,000-year, annually-resolved record of hurricane activity from Boston, Massachusetts. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L14705, doi:10.1029/2008GL033950, 2008.

645. Chang,E.K.M. and Guo,Y. 2007. Is the number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones significantly underestimated prior to the availability of satellite observations? Geophys. Res. Lett., 34,L14801, doi:10.1029/2007GL030169, 2007.

646. Chylek,P. and Lesins,G. 2008. Multidecadal variability of Atlantic hurricane activity: 1851-2007. JGR 113, D22106, doi:10.1029/2008JC010036, 2008.

647. Curry,J.A., Webster,P.J. and Holland,G.J. 2006. Mixing politics and science in testing the hypothesis that greenhouse warming is causing a global increase in hurricane intensity. BAMS 87:1025-1037.

648. Elsner,J.B. 2007. Tempests in time. Nature 477:647-648.

649. Elsner,J.B., Tsonis,A.A.,and Jagger,T.H. 2006. High-frequency variability in hurricane power dissipation and its relationship to temperature. BAMS 87:763-768.

650. Elsner, James B., 2006. Evidence in support of the climate change – Atlantic hurricane hypothesis. Geoph.l Res. Lett. 33. L16705, doi:10.1029/2006GL026869, 2006.

651. Frappier,A., Knutson,T., Liu,K.-B. and Emanuel,K. 2007. Perspective: Coordinating paleoclimate research on tropical cyclones with hurricane-climate theory and modeling. Tellus 59A:529-537.

652. Holland,G.J. 2008. Misuse of landfall as a proxy for Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. EOS 88:349-50.

653. Holland,G.J. and P.J. Webster. 2007. Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: Natural variability or climate trend? Phil. Trans. Royal Soc. A 365:2695-2716.

654. Kossin,J.P. 2008. Is the hurricane season getting longer? Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L23705, doi:10.1029/2008GL036012, 2008.

655. Landsea,C.W., Glenn,D., Bredemeyer,W. et al. 2008. A reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic hurricane database. J. Climate 21:2138-2168.

656. Landsea,C.W., Harper,B.A., Hoarau,K. and Knaff,J.A. 2006. Can we Detect Trends in Extreme Tropical Cyclones? Science 313:452-545.

657. Mann,M.E., Emanual,K.A., Holland,G.J., and Webster,P.J. 2008. Atlantic tropical cyclones revisited. EOS 88:349-50.

658. Mann,M.E., Sabattelli,T.A. and Neu,U. 2007. Evidence for a modest undercount bias in early historical Atlantic tropical cyclone counts. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34,L22707, doi:10.1029/2007GL031781, 2007.

659. Neu,U. 2008. Is recent major hurricane activity normal? Nature 451:E5 (21 February).

660. Nyberg,J., Malmgren,B.J., Winter,A. et al. 2007. Low Atlantic hurricane activity in the 1970s and 1980s compared to the past 270 years. Nature 447:698-702.

661. Nyberg,J., Malmgren,B.J., Winter,A. et al. 2008. Reply to “Is recent major hurricane activity normal?, by Urs Neu. Nature 451:E6 (Feb 21).

662. Santer, B.D., Wigley, T.L., Gleckler, P.J. et al. 2006. Forced and unforced ocean temperature changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions. PNAS 103: 13905-13910.

663. Saunders,M.A. and Lea,A.S. 2008. Large contribution of sea surface warming to recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity. Nature 451:557-560.

664. Solow,A.R. and Beet,A.R. 2008. On the incompleteness of the historical record of the North Atlantic tropical cyclones. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L11803, doi:10.1029/2008GL033546, 2008.

665. Wang,C. and Lee,S.-K. 2008. Global warming and United States landfalling hurricanes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35: L02708; doi:10.1029/2007GL032396, 2008.

666. Zhang,R. and Delworth,T.L. 2006. Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations onn Indian/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricane. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L17712, doi:10.1029/2006GL026267, 2006.

667. Gillett,N.P., Stott,P.A. and Santer,B.D. 2008. Attribution of cyclogenesis region sea surface temperature change to anthropogenic influence. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L09707, doi:10.1029/2008GL033670, 2008.

668. Knutson,T.R., Sirutis,J.J., Garner,S.T. et al. 2008. Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions. Nature Geoscience 1:359-364.

669. Latif,M., Keenlyside,N. and Bader,J. 2007. Tropical sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear and hurricane development. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34,L01710, doi:10.1029/2006GL027969, 2007.

670. Michaels,P.J., Knappenberger,P.C. and Davis,R.E. 2006. Sea-surface temperatures and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L09708, doi:10.1029/2006GL025757, 2006.

671. Trenberth,K.E. and Shea,D.J. 2006. Altantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L12704, doi:10.1029/2006GL026894, 2006.



5.2.7 Ecosystems

672. Christidis,N., Stott,P.A., Brown,S. et al. 2007. Human contribution to the lengthening of the growing season during 1950-99. J. Climate 20:5441-5454.

673. Hitch,A.T., Leberg,P.L. 2007. Breeding distributions of North American bird species moving north as a result of climate change. Conservation Biology 21(2): 534-539.)

674. Høye,T.T., Post,E., Meltofte,H. et al. 2006. Rapid advance of spring in the high Arctic. Current Biology Magazine 17:R449-451.

675. Lenoir,J., Gégout,J.C., Marquet,P.A. et al. 2008. A significant upward shift in plant species optimum elevation during the 20th century. Science 320:1768-1772.

676. Menzel.A., Sparks,T.H., Strella,N. et al. 2006. European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern. GCB: 12:1-8.

677. Parmesan, C. 2006. Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annual Reviews of Ecology, Evolution and Systematics 37:637-669.

678. Parmesan, C. 2007. Influences of species, latitudes and methodologies on estimates of phenological response to global warming. GCB 13: 1860-1872.

679. Piao,S., Friedlinstein,P., Ciais,P. et al. 2006. Effect of climate and CO2 changes on the greening of the Northern Hemisphere over the past two decades. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L23402, doi:10.1029/2006GL028205, 2006.

680. Rosati,J.Y. and VanLaerhoven,S.L. 2007. New record of Chrysomya rufifacies (Diptera: Calliphoridae) in Canada: Predicted range expansion and potential effects on native species. Canadian Entomology 139:670-677.

681. Tape,K., Sturm,M.,and Racine,C. 2006. The evidence for shrub expansion in northern Alaska and the pan-Arctic. GCB 12:686-702.

682. Thiemann,G.W., Iverson,S.J. and Stirling,I. 2008. Polar bear diets and Arctic marine food webs: Insights from fatty acid analysis. Ecological Monographs 78:591-613.

683. Zhang,X., Trapley,D. and Sullivan,J.T. 2007. Diverse responses of vegetation phenology to a warming climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L19405, doi:10.1029/2007GL031447, 2007.

684. Alford,R.A., Bradfiekd,K,S, and Richards,S.J. 2007. Global warming and amphibian losses. Nature 447:E3-E4.

685. Amstrup,S.C.,Stirling, I.,Smith,T.S. et al. 2006. Recent observations of intraspecific predation and cannibalism among polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea. Polar Biology 26:997-1002.

686. Fagotti,A. and Pascolini,R. 2007. The proximate cause of frog declines? Nature 447:E4-E5.

687. Girardin,M. 2007. Interannual to decadal changes in area burned in Canada from 1781-1982 and the relationship to Northern Hemisphere land temperatures. Global Ecology and Biogeography 16:557-566.

688. Groisman,P.Y., Sherstyukov,B.G., Razuvaev,V.N. et al. 2007. Potential forest fire danger over Northern Eurasia: Changes during the 20th century. Global and Planetary Change 56:371-386.

689. Kasischke,E.S. and Turetsky,M.R. 2006. Recent changes in the fire regime across the North American boreal region – Spatial and temporal patterns burning across Canada and Alaska. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L09703, doi:10.1029/2006GL025677, 2006.

690. Knapp,P.A. and Soulé,P.T. 2007. Trends in midlatitude cyclone frequency and occurrence during fire season in the Northern Rockies: 1900-2004. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34,L20707, doi:10.1029/2007GL031216, 2007.

691. Pounds,J.A., Bustamante,M.R., Coloma,L.A. et al. 2006. Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming. Nature 439:161-165.

692. Pounds,J.A., Bustamante,M.R., Coloma,L.A. et al. 2007. Pounds et al. reply. Nature 447:E5-E6 (31 May).

693. Stirling I., and Parkinson,C.L. 2006. Possible effects of climate warming on selected populations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Canadian Arctic. Arctic 59:261-275.

694. Behrenfeld,M.J., O’Malley,R.T., Siegel,D.A. et al. 2006. Climate driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity. Nature 444:752-756.

695. Doney,S.C. 2006. Plankton in a warmer world. Nature 444:695-696.

696. Pabi,S., van Dijken,G.L. and Arrigo,K.R. 2008. Primary production in the Arctic Ocean, 1998-2006. JGR 113: C08005, doi:10.1029/2007JC004578, 2008.

697. Grebmeier,J.M., Overland,J.E., Moore,S.E. et al. 2006. A Major Ecosystem Shift in the Northern Bering Sea. Science 311:1461-1464.

698. Greene, C.H. and Pershing,A.J. 2007. Climate drives sea change. Science 315:1083-1084.

699. Greene,C.H., Pershing,A.J., Cronin,T.M. and Ceci,N. 2008. Arctic climate change and its impact on the ecology of the North Atlantic. Ecology 89:S24-S38.

700. Stramma,L., Johnson,G.C., Sprintall,J. and Mohrholz,V. 2008. Expanding oxygen-minimum zones in the tropical oceans. Science 320:655-658.

701. Thresher,R.E., Koslow,J.A., Morison,A.K. and Smith,D.C. 2007. Depth-mediated reversal of the effects of climate change on long-term growth rates of exploited marine fish. PNAS 104:7461-7465.

702. Feely,R.A., Sabine,C.L., Hernandez-Ayon,J.M. et al. 2008. Evidence for upwelling of corrosive ‘acidified’ water onto the continental shelf. Science 320:1490-1492.

703. Wootton,J.T., Pfister,C.A. and Forester,J.D. 2008. Dynamic patterns and ecological impacts of declining ocean pH in a high-resolution multi-year dataset. PNAS 105:18848-18853.


      1. Socio-economic

704. Lobell,D.B. and Field,C.B. 2007. Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming. Environmental Research Letters 2, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/1082/1081/014002.

705. Donaldson,G.C. 2006. Climate change and the end of the respiratory syncytial virus season. Clinical Infectious Diseases 42:677-679.

706. Ford,J.D., Pearce,T., Gilligan,J. et al. 2008. Climate change and hazards associated with ice use in northern Canada. Arctic, Antarctic and Alpine Research 40:647-659.

5.3 Detection/Attribution
5.3.1 Temperature

707. Fyfe, J.C. 2006. Southern Ocean warming due to human influence. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 L19701,doi:10.1029/2006GL027247.

708. Gillett,N.P., Stone,D.A., Stott, P.A. et al. 2008. Attribution of polar warming to human influence. Nature Geoscience 1:750-754.

709. Kaufman,R.K., Kauppi,H. and Stock,J.H. 2006. Emissions, concentrations and temperature: A time series analysis. CC 77:249-278.

710. Lockwood,M. and Fröhlich,C. 2007. Recent oppositely – directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. Proc. Royal Society A. 463:2447-2460.

711. Pierce,D.W., Barnett,T.P., AchutaRao,K.M. et al. 2006. Anthropogenic warming of the oceans : Observations and model results. J. Climate 19:1873-1900.

712. Tett,S.F.B., Betts,R., Crowley,T.J. et al. 2007. The impact of natural and anthropogenic forcings on climate and hydrology since 1550. Climate Dynamics 28:3-34.

713. Zorita,E., Stocker,T.F. and von Storch,H. 2008. How unusual is the recent series of warm years? Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L24706, doi:10.1029/2008GL036228, 2008.

714. Lean,J.L. and Rind,D.H. 2008. How natural and anthropogenic influences alter global and regional surface temperatures: 1889 to 2006. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L18701, doi:10.1029/2008GL034864.

715. Douville,H. 2006. Detection-attribution of global warming at the regional scale: How to deal with precipitation variability? Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L02701, doi:10.1029/2005GL024967, 2006.

716. Liu,J., Curry,J.A., Dai,Y. and Horton,R. 2007. Causes of the northern high-latitude land surface winter climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L14702, doi:10.1029/2007GL030196, 2007.

717. Meehl,G.A., Arblaster,J.M. and Tebaldi,C. 2007. Contributions of natural and anthropogenic extremes over the United States. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L19709, doi:10.1029/2007GL030948, 2007.

718. Zhang,X., Zwiers,F.W. and Stott,P.A. 2006. Multimodel multisignal climate change detection at regional scale. J. Climate 19:4294-4307.

719. Huntingford,C., Stott,P.A., Allen,M.R. and Lambert,F.H. 2006. Incorporating model uncertainty into attribution of observed temperature change. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L005710, doi:10.1029/2005GL024831, 2006.

720. McKitrick,R.R. and Michaels,P.J. 2007. Quantifying the influence of anthropogenic surface processes and inhomgenieties on gridded global climate data. JGR 112, D24S09, doi:10.1029/2007JD008465, 2007.

721. Parker,D.E. 2006. A demonstration that large-scale warming is not urban. J. Climate 19:2882-2895.



5.3.2 Precipitation

722. Biasutti,M. and Giannini,A. 2006. Robust Sahel drying in response to late 20th century forcings. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L11706, doi:10.1029/2006GL026067, 2006.

723. Zhang,X., Zwiers,F.W., Hegerl,G.C., Lambert, F.H. et al. 2007. Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends. Nature 448: 461-465.


      1. Atmospheric and Ocean Circulation

724. Baines,P.G. and Folland,C.K. 2007. Evidence for a rapid global climate shift across the late 1960s. J. Climate 20:2721-2743.

725. Barnett,T.P., Pierce,D.W., Hidalgo,H.G. et al. 2008. Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States. Science 319:1080-1083.

726. Overland,J.E., Wang,M. and Salo,S. 2008. The recent Arctic warm period. Tellus 60A:589-597.

727. Turner,J., Overland,J.E. and Walsh,J.E. 2006. An Arctic and Antarctic perspective on recent climate change. Int. J. Climatology 27:277-293.

728. Stott,P.A., Sutton,R.T. and Smith,D.M. 2008. Detection and attribution of Atlantic salinity changes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L21702, doi:10.1029/2008GL035875, 2008.


      1. Climate Extremes

729. Chase,T.N., Wolter,K., Pielke,R.A. Sr. and Rasool,I. 2008. Reply to comment by W.M. Connolley on “Was the 2003 European heat wave unusual in a global context?” Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L02704, Doi:10.1029/2007GL031574, 2008.

730. Connelly,W.M. 2008. Comment on “Was the 2003 European heat wave unusual in a global context?” by Thomas N. Chase et al. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L02703, Doi:10.1029/2007GL031171, 2008.

731. Hoerling,M., Eischeid,J., Quan,X. and Xu,T. 2007. Explaining the record US warmth of 2006. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L17704, doi:101029/2007GL030643

732. Bonfils,C., Santer,B.D., Pierce,D.W. et al. 2008. Detection and attribution of temperature changes in the mountainous western United States. J. Climate 21:6404-6423.



      1. Natural Systems

733. Rosenzweig,C., Karoly,D., Vicarelli,M. et al. 2008. Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change. Nature 453:353-357.

734. Zwiers,F. and Hegerl,G. 2008. Attributing cause and effect. Nature 453:296-297.




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