Tampa Prep 2009-2010 Impact Defense File
Ext #4 – Mutation Slow Threat of mutation is low- if it happens it will take tons of time to mutate
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- Even if they win it mutates, it won’t happen for 50 years
- Ext 5 – No Human Spread
- The Avian Flu will never be transmittable among humans
- Even if the virus mutates- it is weaker than the original and will not spread among humans
Ext #4 – Mutation SlowThreat of mutation is low- if it happens it will take tons of time to mutateChicago Tribune 11-1-2005 How imminent a threat the bird flu might be depends on factors that scientists don't fully understand. For example, how many changes in the virus' genetic makeup would it take before it could easily infect and spread among humans? Influenza viruses are constructed of RNA, the genetic cousin of the much more stable DNA. As an RNA virus reproduces itself from inside a human cell, its copying mechanism makes numerous small errors in genetic translation--as though every time a newspaper article were reproduced another word was misspelled. Those errors--or mutations--are why last year's vaccine does not protect against this year's strain. As a result, for many in the U.S. and other highly developed countries, getting an annual "flu shot" has become a winter ritual. Although flu viruses constantly mutate in small ways, the more mutations needed to easily infect humans, the longer such an adaptation would probably take--and the less likely it would be to occur at all. Palese thinks the evidence suggests that relatively large numbers of mutations would be required, indicating the threat is probably not immediate. The first human cases of the new avian flu were reported in Hong Kong in 1997. So the virus has been circulating and mutating for at least eight years without adapting to move from person to person, Palese noted. And other data suggest that a related virus--or possibly the same virus--has been circulating in large areas of China for even longer, perhaps since before 1992, he said. Even if they win it mutates, it won’t happen for 50 years-CNN News 10/10/05 CNN) -- A physician monitoring the threat of avian influenza says a key question is whether the strain of bird flu in Asia has mutated into a flu that could result in a human pandemic. Dr. Marc Siegel, author of "False Alarm: The Truth About the Epidemic of Fear," said it's likely that such a pandemic could occur "over the next 50 years and maybe even over the next 10 or 20," but he said "it may very well not be this bug." The first case of avian influenza type A (H5N1) spreading from a bird to a human was recorded in Hong Kong during a 1997 outbreak of the flu in poultry, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, Georgia. (Watch why many companies aren't interested in making vaccine -- 1:29) Siegel said there are still many unanswered questions regarding whether this strain of bird flu could be a pandemic trigger. "If it does mutate or another one does, we don't know for sure what it will do," he said. "That's, you know, really speculation at this point." Ext #5 – No Human SpreadStudy shows the spread of the flu is tied to genetic predispositions- even if they win it mutates it will be slow and ineffectiveAustralian News 11/3/06 http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,20693171-401,00.html "A genetic predisposition for infection is suspected based on data from rare instances of human-to-human transmission in genetically-related persons,'' the WHO said. "This possibility, if more fully explored, might help explain why human cases are comparatively rare and why the virus is not spreading easily from animals to humans or from human to human,'' it added. Bird flu remains mainly an animal disease, but has infected 256 people since late 2003, killing 152 of them, according to the United Nations agency. Experts fear the virus could mutate and spark a human influenza pandemic, which could kill millions. Overall, the H5N1 virus continues to show "inefficient spread'', both from animals to humans and among humans, it said. The Avian Flu will never be transmittable among humansInternational Herald Tribune 11-9-05 ( Gina Kolata, “ Hazards in the hunt for flu bug” ,November 9th 2005) < http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/11/08/news/birds.php> Some experts like Peter Palese of the Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York said the H5N1 viruses are a false alarm. He notes that studies of serum collected in 1992 from people in rural China indicated that millions there had antibodies to the H5N1 strain. That means they had been infected with an H5N1 bird virus and recovered, apparently without incident. Despite that, and the fact that those viruses have been circulating in China for a dozen years, almost no human-to-human spread has occurred. "The virus has been around for more than a dozen years, but it hasn't jumped into the human population," Palese said. "I don't think it has the capability of doing it." Even if the virus mutates- it is weaker than the original and will not spread among humansMedical News Today, 06 - the largest independent health and medical news website on the Internet. - ( “ Mutated Bird Flu Virus Might Not Spread Easily”, August 1st 2006) < http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/48478.php> Although many scientists have been concerned that the H5N1 bird flu virus may mutate one day and become easily human transmissible, a recent study seems to indicate that it might not spread easily among humans. Researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), USA, tried to combine a common human flu virus with H5N1 and found it does not spread easily. This could mean that the mutated virus may not be such a giant threat to global human health. You can read about this study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, August 2. Scientists infected ferrets with genetically engineered H5N1 viruses and found that the infected animals did not spread their illness to other healthy ferrets - all the animals were very close to each other. They also found that the 'mutated' virus was not as virulent as the original H5N1. Directory: files -> documents documents -> North Mankato Taylor Library documents -> In the Red and Brown Water documents -> - documents -> I. Disaster Summary Sheet II. Tropical Cyclones documents -> Cbp and Trade Automated Interface Requirements Appendix: pga december 22, 2015 documents -> Ace abi catair customs and Trade Automated Interface Requirements documents -> Ace abi catair customs and Trade Automated Interface Requirements documents -> Mobile audio/video recording systems documents -> Cartographic Concepts for Realizing a Location Based umts service documents -> 1/ Background Statistics Human development index rank Download 2.71 Mb. Share with your friends:
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