Relations impacts and cp’s



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Turkey terrorism impact



Escalating terrorism in Turkey leads to the AKP losing the election. The resulting coalition government would cause the collapse of the entire Middle East and wars that draw in the globe

Uysal, 7/2 [2010, Ahmet, associate professor at Eskişehir Osmangazi University’s department of international relations, Kurdish separatism is a threat to the future of the Middle East, http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/news-214854-109-centerkurdish-separatism-is-a-threat-to-the-future-of-the-middle-east-bribyi-brahmet-uysalcenter.html]
Because of the escalation of terrorism in Turkey, Erdoğan’s AK Party may lose its majority in the upcoming elections next year. The sole alternative would be a coalition between the conservative nationalist MHP and the secular nationalist CHP. Their nationalist policies may alienate the moderate Kurds and even escalate ethnic tension, spreading to Iraq and destabilizing the whole region. Because the PKK is positioned in the mountainous north, the rise of terrorist attacks can force Turkey to turn to Iraq. The escalation of terrorism and ethnic conflict in Turkey would create a big mess in the conflict-torn Middle East. The West must put more pressure on radical Kurdish activists operating in European cities by cutting the financial and human support they provide to the PKK. Similarly, the US must put more pressure on Kurdish leaders Barzani and Talabani not to allow the PKK unhindered operation in northern Iraq. Like the Egyptian president who convinced al-Assad not to host the PKK leader in 1999, Arab governments can help Turkey overcome this terrorism by standing by the people of Turkey. Otherwise, the peaceful and rational Turkish experience led by the AK Party in the region will leave the ground for a nationalist government that might destabilize Iraq and damage relations with Kurds, Arabs and the West. Conflicts all around the greater Middle East can hurt and damage even the most stable countries in the globalized world.

PKK CP 1NC

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PKK presence in Iraq hurts U.S-Turkey relations

Reuters 7/6/10 ( Seyhmus Cakan, “Turkey says PKK attacks may harm ties with Iraq and U.S.”, http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6653EE20100706)


Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's government, under pressure to contain escalating violence that threatens to hurt its popularity in a general vote set by July 2011, has repeatedly called for greater support from Iraq and the U.S. to combat the PKK, which has bases in northern Iraq. In the latest fighting, PKK rebels attacked an army outpost in southeast Turkey overnight, triggering a clash in which 12 rebels and three soldiers were killed, security sources said. "These terror camps within the borders of Iraq, in northern Iraq, are unacceptable. We have demanded this from Iraq and the United States. The time for words is over. It is time for action now," Interior Minister Besir Atalay told a news conference. Striking a similar note, the head of the Turkish armed forces warned that the PKK presence in Iraq could harm ties with its neighbor and with the United States if action is not taken to curb the militants' activities in northern Iraq. "The time has come and is passing for those responsible -- the people, institutions, states and formations in northern Iraq -- to do what is right," General Ilker Basbug was reported as saying in an interview with Star TV. "The presence of the PKK in northern Iraq will have a negative impact on Turkish-Iraqi relations in the coming period. In a sense, it will negatively affect Turkish-U.S. relations."

This is the key issue and where the US has to start to improve relations

Gordon et al 08 (Philip H. Gordon, Omer Taspinar, and Soli Ozel, “Winning Turkey: How America, Europe, and Turkey can Revive a Fading Partnership”, October 2008, page 61)


The place to start is with the Kurdish issue, which threatens Turkey’s stability and confidence in the West more than any other. The United States cannot take back the invasion of Iraq, which most Turks blame for the flare-up in PKK violence but there are a number of steps it could take to minimize the Turkish perception that Americans do not take Turkish interests into account. The most critical measures include greater U.S. support for limited Turkish military action against the PKK; the exercise of American leverage over the Iraqi Kurds; support for the political and cultural rights of Kurds in Turkey; and the promotion of a mutually beneficial “grand bargain” between Turkey and the Kurds of northern Iraq. American reluctance to support Turkish military action against the PKK in Iraq is understandable; northern Iraq has been one of the few stable parts of the country, and the last thing American military commanders there want to do is open a new front in the Iraq conflict. As one senior U.S. official recently put it, “If you’re a Turkey hand, you say, ‘for crying out loud, why isn’t CENTCOM taking action?’ If you’re looking at it from Iraq, you say, ‘Hey, we’ve got our hands full; lets not stir the nest up.’” The roots of Turkey’s problem with Kurdith terrorism are primarily internal, and attacking Kurdish militants in Iraq could provoke the PKK to launch even more domestic terror attacks.

PKK CP solves relations

U.S. active involvement in deterring the PKK can restore U.S.-Turkey relations

Gordon et al 08 (Philip H. Gordon, Omer Taspinar, and Soli Ozel, “Winning Turkey: How America, Europe, and Turkey can Revive a Fading Partnership”, October 2008, page 61)


At the same time, America’s failure to act militarily against the PKK and its opposition to Turkey’s doing so has been among the most important causes of Turkey’s growing disenchantment with the West. When the U.S. commander in charge of northern Iraq, General Benjamin R. Mixon, was asked in October 2007 why Turkey considers the PKK such a serious threat, Mixon responded, “I have no idea. You’ll have to ask Turkey.” Such apparent U.S. indifference to murderous cross-border terrorist attacks on Turkey leaves the United States open to charges that it cares only about terrorists who attack Americans, undercuts American leverage against the Iraqi Kurds, and contributes to the feeling in Ankara that Turkey must act unilaterally; which could trigger a disastrous confrontation with Kurdish Peshmerga forces. Worried about the consequences of such a unilateral interven­tion, the United States has since late 2007 been taking a stronger line against the PKK, both by backing limited Turkish military action and by providing more intelligence to the Turks. Such American support is a step in the right direction and has helped strengthen the Turkish public's severely shaken trust in the United States. It could be usefully bolstered by Washington's own efforts to kill or arrest known PKK leaders and pressure on Euro­peans to crack down on PKK financing. Such actions would help demonstrate the United States' seriousness of purpose by match­ing its words about fighting terrorism with deeds, and also help take pressure off the government in Ankara for a more compre­hensive, and likely counterproductive, ground invasion. Wash­ington needs to reassure Turks that it is concerned with the ter­rorists who attack Turkey, not just those who attack the United States.




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