Price constraints don’t mean China goes away, just that the aid is uncoordinated and sparks resentment
Gill and Reilly. 2k7. Bates, the Freeman Chair in China Studies at CSIS & James, East Asia representative for the American Friends Service Committee. “The Tenuous Hold of China Inc. in Africa” The Washington Quarterly • 30:3 pp. 37–52. http://www.twq.com/07summer/docs/07summer_gill_reilly.pdf
Second, China’s foreign aid policy is constrained by … subcontracting to a firm already approved by the MOC.
Successful medical assistance is key to Chinese relations with Africa
Gu 2005. Dr. Xuewu, Chair of East Asian Politics and Director of the Institute of East Asian Politics of Bochum University. “China Returns to Africa” Trends East Asia. February. http://www.ruhr-uni-bochum.de/oaw/poa/pdf/TEA%20S9.pdf
One of China’s most effective instruments for cultivating … every African family, at least on the statistical level.
Relations with Africa are key to Chinese stability. China’s economy depends on the export market and resources of Africa. International credibility depends on relations
Kurlantzick 2k6. Joshua, visiting scholar in the Carnegie Endowment’s China Program. “Beijing’s Safari:
China’s Move into Africa and Its Implications for Aid,Development, and Governance” China Program, November. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. www.carnegieendowment.org/ files/kurlantzick_outlook_africa2.pdf
Developing countries, and particularly African states, … international aid in 2004. By comparison, in an eight-year period between 1993
Oil shortages in China cause Chinese economic slowdown leading to CCP instability
The Economist 07/12/07
Acute energy shortages in China would have serious economic and political consequences … ensures that the effects of a serious energy-supply disruption or power shortage would be severe.
CCP instability causes a nationalist takeover and a lashout resulting in war over Taiwan
Paradise, 07 (James, “Underestimating China's "resilient authoritarianism"?”, ASIA MEDIA NEWS DAILY, May 1, 2007, http://www.asiamedia.ucla.edu/article-eastasia.asp?parentid=68978)
Susan L. Shirk goes a long way to overcoming both of these problems (especially the latter) in regards to China. In her new book, … does not successfully adjust to China's rise -- which requires engaging in a partnership with China -- there could be serious implications.
Hsiung 01 – Professor of Politics and International Law at NYU
[James, 21st Century World Order and the Asia Pacific, p. 359-360]
Admittedly, it is harmless for an analyst like Lind to be so oblivious of lessons from the past and of the reasons behind both the dogs barking and not barking. But decision-makers cannot afford such luxury. Lee Kuan Yew… clear why stability in the U.S.-China-Japan triadic relationship is a sine qua non for geopolitical peace in the Asia Pacific region.
Advantage 2: Sino-US Relations a. Oil Sino-US clash over Africa is inevitable without greater understanding and cooperation on public health
Gill, Huang & Morrison. 2k6. Bates, Freeman Chair in China Studies at CSIS. Chin-Hao, research assistant with the Freeman Chair. J. Stephen, director of the Africa Program at CSIS. “China’s Expanding Role in Africa Implications for the United States” A Report to the CSIS Delegation to China on US-Africa-China Relations. http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/chinainafrica.pdf
China’s ambitious, new high-profile role in Africa challenges the United States to think far more comprehensively and strategically about how it will engage … only if there is the conscious political choice and exercise of political will by each government’s leaders.
Miscalculation over resource competition is the most likely scenario for US-China war
Hatemi & Wedamanis, 2k7. Peter, a professor at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Andrew,
associate professor and chair of Asian Studies at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. “Oil and Conflict in
Sino-American Relations” China Security, Vol. 3 No. 3 Summer 2007, pp. 95 – 118. www.wsichina.org/cs7_5.pdf
Because the economies of both the United States and China … security dilemma, wherein reciprocation of antagonistic actions may lead to war.
Resource wars culminate in extinction
Dr. Malcolm Riddoch, Faculty of Communications and Creative Industries, Edith Cowan University, June 19, 04 (http://www.melbourne.indymedia.org/news/2004/06/72000_comment.php)
There are lots of recent 2004 reports speculating about the … species through global nuclear war and its companions famine and pestilence.
We have the fastest timeframe. Oil will run out in 2 years
Hatemi & Wedamanis, 2k7. Peter, a professor at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Andrew,
associate professor and chair of Asian Studies at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. “Oil and Conflict in
Sino-American Relations” China Security, Vol. 3 No. 3 Summer 2007, pp. 95 – 118. www.wsichina.org/cs7_5.pdf
Although most countries rely on a combination of fuels, including coal and nuclear power… in the disputed Spratly and Paracel islands and East China Sea regions.
b. Relations The current strategy of containment fails. It will lead to a US-China confrontation and destroy all current cooperation – this is crucial to maintain on all major international initiatives including stemming global proliferation
Bader and Bush, 8 [Jeffrey Bader, Director at the John. L Thornton China Center and Richard C. Bush III, Director of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at Opportunity 08, The Brookings Institution – “Contending with the Rise of China: Build on Three Decades of Progress; China, U.S. Politics, Asia, Elections, Politics”]
Against this backdrop, Zoellick was right to acknowledge the need to “hedge” …with China for minimal or no security benefit.
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