Oil 1 Peak Oil 21
Unconventional Oil Solves
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Unconventional Oil SolvesUnconventional oil will play a significant role in the years to come – multiple reasons. Bob Williams, executive director, Oil & Gas Journal, “Heavy hydrocarbons playing key role in peak-oil debate, future energy supply” 7/28/03, In the end, it may be geopolitical concerns that drive the big push on heavy hydrocarbon development in the decades to come more than anything else, according to USGS's Ahlbrandt. "Heavy oils, tar sands, and other unconventionals will clearly play an increasing role for several reasons," he said. "First, there is less geologic risk to their development, and the thereby economic risk is reduced. Unconventional oils also fall outside of (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) quotas, and thus there is considerable incentive to get them on stream. The inclusion of the 174 billion bbl (of Canadian oil sands reserves) by Oil & Gas Journal in December 2002 , , , demonstrates this changing landscape. "Absolutely, heavy oils and tar sands will play a huge role, because they contribute mightily to geographic scenario options, i.e., oil supplies outside of the main producing areas where there are political risks." Peak theorists ignore non-conventional oil – it’s becoming more cost efficient. ISMAEL HOSSEIN-ZADEH, professor of economics at Drake University, CounterPunch, “Are There Really Oil Wars?” 7/9/08, http://www.counterpunch.org/zadeh07092008.html Third, Peak Oil theory also pays short shrift to what is sometimes called non-conventional oil. These include Canada's giant reserves of extra-heavy bitumen that can be processed to produce conventional oil. Although this was originally considered cost inefficient, experts working in this area now claim that they have brought down the cost from over $20 a barrel to $8 per barrel. Similar developments are taking place in Venezuela. It is thanks to developments like these that since 1970, world oil reserves have more than doubled, despite the extraction of hundreds of millions of barrels.[6] Unconventional Oil SolvesUnconventional hydrocarbon resources can overtake petroleum in the longterm. Peter M. Crawford and 2 others, energy technology, policy, and strategic communications consultant, Oil & Gas Journal, “Is oil shale America's answer to peak-oil challenge?” 8/9/04, LexisNexis Recent discussions regarding the advent of a peak in global crude oil production generally fail to address the potential of America's rich, massive oil shale resources to augment petroleum supplies. While hope is often expressed for continued reserves growth and a smooth transition to future sources of energy, a realistic assessment of the full range of alternatives will reveal that only unconventional hydrocarbon resources, i.e., oil shale, tar sand, extra-heavy oil, and possibly coal liquids, are large enough to supplement petroleum supply with meaningful quantities of liquid fuels in the long term. Interestingly, most of the world's known unconventional hydrocarbon resources are found in the Western Hemisphere -- in the US, Canada, and Latin America -- which geopolitically is relatively secure. Increased production from unconventional Western Hemisphere hydrocarbon resources could substantially shift the center of gravity of America's petroleum supply. Canada and Latin America already supply at least half of current US oil imports. About one quarter, or 2.5 million b/d, is imported from Persian Gulf countries, with the remainder from numerous other sources. While achieving total US energy independence is an unrealistic objective, it is conceivable that large-scale production of domestic oil shale, combined with continuing growth in tar sand and extra-heavy oil production, could make the US effectively independent of Persian Gulf oil supply sources. Achieving such a goal would have enormous economic, strategic, and national security benefits for the US. Tar sand resources are now successfully competing for investment capital with conventional petroleum exploration and production. Tar sand resources are well-characterized and readily accessible. They feature high recovery efficiencies and dependable production rates and produce uniform, high-quality products. Suncor Energy Inc. CEO and Pres. Rick George says of Alberta's tar sand development: "A large part of the rest of this [petroleum] industry is chasing the world for reserves. . . We have reserves. . . We have no exploration risk and also have no decline curve, so we have a completely different business model from the conventional crude oil producer."n1 Moreover, the commercial success of these ventures has resulted in the recent addition of 174 billion bbl of tar sand to Canada's proved oil reserves.n2 US oil shale resources possess the same characteristics of accessibility, richness, production assurance, and high product quality as Alberta tar sand resources. Perhaps the surest way for America to add large quantities of proved US reserves is to demonstrate the commercial viability of oil shale. A recent report by the US Department of Energy's Office of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves (NPOSR) details the strategic significance of America's oil shale for military and domestic needs.n3 n4 The report suggests that the richness and magnitude of America's oil shale resources warrants management as a long-term strategic resource, complementing the shorter-term response capability offered by the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Unconventional Oil Solves – Smooth TransitionWe’ll transition to heavy oil after the peak – there are 2 trillion bbl just in Canada and Venezuela. Bob Williams, executive director, Oil & Gas Journal, “Heavy hydrocarbons playing key role in peak-oil debate, future energy supply” 7/28/03 Mariano Gurfinkel, assistant director for energy technology development, integration, and deployment at the Center for Energy and Technology of the Americas at Florida International University, disputes that notion. Using the US as analogy for his argument, Gurfinkel notes that more than half of the US oil endowment of 650 billion bbl has been discovered but is not economically viable at current prices. "In late 1998 and early 1999, prices dropped to levels that made many tertiary recovery processes uneconomical in the short term, so output was reduced from such fields. Once prices recovered, many of these projects were put on line again. "Now let's assume that new discoveries were fewer and farther apart (which some argue will not be the case), and that demand kept up. Given that there is elasticity of demand to prices, demand would be reduced as prices increase (at least long-run demand); additionally, rising prices will provide a margin for the production from marginal fields. "All this to say is that there will not be a sharp decline in production after the peak. Most likely once a peak is reached -- a peak not determined by geology (as put forth by the Hubbert modelers) but rather by the market -- production will decline very slowly as higher-cost fields come online. "Eventually, prices will increase sufficiently that other means of energy will become viable, and fuel-switching will take place to keep the marginal costs and prices nearly constant. If at this point, a new, lower-cost alternative is developed, it will substitute for oil as the primary source of energy, and then and only then will there be a sharp decline in production. "Now let's bring heavy oil and tar sands into the picture. Heavy oil and tar sands constitute the equivalent of new fields in the previous argument, and as we know there is much of it around the world. Just in Canada and Venezuela there is more than 2 trillion bbl in place." Undiscovered Oil SolvesPeak oil theorists don’t account for undiscovered oil fields – there’s still plenty out there. Peter R. Odell, Professor Emeritus of International Energy Studies @ Erasmus University, “Why Carbon Fuels Will Dominate the 21st Century’s Global Energy Economy,” 2004 
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