Gonzaga Debate Institute 2011 Mercury China Coop Aff



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Space Race Now (2/2)




down one of its own weather satellites with a missile. China clearly recognizes the significance of this capability. In 2005, a Chinese military officer wrote in the book Joint Space War Campaigns, put out by the National Defense University, that a "shock and awe strike" on satellites "will shake the structure of the opponent's operations system of organization and will create huge psychological impact on the opponent's policymakers." Such a strike could hypothetically allow China to counterbalance technologically superior U.S. forces, which rely heavily on satellites for battlefield data. China is still decades away from challenging the U.S. in space. But U.S. officials worry espionage may be bringing China a little closer to doing so here on Earth.

China’s new developments make it a threat to US space dominance

Wall, Space.com Senior Writer, 11

(Mike, Space.com, “Washington Worries China Will Challenge U.S. Dominance in Space”, may 12, http://www.space.com/11646-china-space-policy-united-states.html) PG


China recently demonstrated the ability to destroy satellites on orbit, and it's ramping up plans for a space station and a possible manned lunar landing in the next decade or so. At a hearing on "The Implications of China's Military and Civil Space Programs," a range of experts discussed what these developments might mean for the United States. In 2007, China destroyed one of its own satellites on orbit during an anti-satellite test, showcasing an ability that makes the United States and other nations nervous. Since then, the country has conducted other tests advancing its military space capabilities, including a 2010 missile-interception demonstration. The country also hopes to build a large space station between 2015 and 2022, according to hearing panelist Alanna Krolikowski, a visiting scholar at George Washington University's Space Policy Institute. And, beyond that, China appears to be gearing up for a manned lunar landing. The nation's human spaceflight program aims to complete an in-depth concept study on the subject by about 2020, Krolikowski said at the hearing. These developments have some politicians and policy experts worried. They think China may be positioning itself to challenge outright the United States' dominance in space, which currently gives America a huge advantage on the battlefield. “What concerns me most about the Chinese space program is that, unlike the U.S., it is being led by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)," Congressman Frank Wolf (R-VA) testified at the hearing. "There is no reason to believe that the PLA’s space program will be any more benign than the PLA’s recent military posture."

China’s increase in space activity leads to a space race

New Scientist ‘08

(New Scientist, 02624079, 2/23/2008, Vol. 197, Issue 2644 “China’s Space Reputation Growing Fast EBSCO host 7/1/11 BLG)


Last week, NASA chief Mike Griffin admitted at a congressional hearing that China is a serious competitor for the US. His speech marks a turnaround: "A few years ago, I was not particularly concerned about Chinese primacy in human spaceflight relative to that of the US," he said. China's rapid progress and a visit to the country changed his mind. China still has some catching up to do. So far, it has only launched two crewed missions. But on Tuesday, the state media reported that the country plans to launch at least 10 missions this year - a record number. These include two Shenzhou spacecraft, two environmental satellites and a communications satellite for Venezuela. There are worries that the rivalry between the US and China could spill over into an arms race in space. This week, China said a US plan to fire a missile at a crippled reconnaissance satellite was a threat to space security, despite having shot down one of its own weather satellites in January 2007.

US Losing Space Competitiveness To China



The US is militarily dependent on space, but is no longer the clear leader.

Berrigan, World Policy Institute, Research Associate ‘07

(Frida, April 2007 World Policy Institute, Research Associate Progressive, 00330736, Apr2007, Vol. 71, Issue 4 “China joins the Battle for Space” EBSCOhost http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/detail?vid=38&hid=10&sid=a03a83d6-ae6c-48cd-aed8-847f942a8f89%40sessionmgr10&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=a9h&AN=24637247 7/2/11v BLG)


China's successful test against a satellite points up the vulnerability of the U.S. military — and economy. More than 800 satellites orbit the globe; half belong to the United States. Russia operates eighty-nine, China owns another thirty-five, and the rest are divided among states and commercial ventures. According to the Union of Concerned Scientists' database of satellites, one-fourth of U.S. satellites are owned by the military. But the military's reach goes far beyond that, Samson points out that "80 percent of military communications go over civilian satellites." The U.S. military is space-dependent. "We have the most highly informationalized military in the world," says Hitchens. Satellites are not just used to guide bombs and missiles to their targets or collect intelligence data, but to arrange for supply replenishment, relay orders, and to network the military across great expanses. David Wright, co-director of the Union of Concerned Scientists' Global Security Program, notes that up until China's January 11th test, the United States exercised clear dominance in space. Washington and Moscow tested a small number of anti-satellite weapons in the 1970s and '80s, but both sides have largely abided by a moratorium since the United States destroyed a satellite in 1985. U.S. supremacy, says Wright, meant that "we did not have to think much about what other countries were doing and wanted to do in space."

China is inching towards US space leadership

Economist ‘09

(00130613, 10/24/2009, Vol. 392, Issue 8654 “Aiming High” http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/detail?vid=46&hid=10&sid=a03a83d6-ae6c-48cd-aed8-847f942a8f89%40sessionmgr10&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=a9h&AN=44812133 EBSCOhost 7/2/11 BLG)


A Chinese moon landing might chip away at America's sense of its scientific superiority, adding to the worries that were aroused in 2005 when a panel commissioned by Congress gave warning that America was losing its technological edge. The panel cited statistics showing that China produces 600,000 engineering graduates a year against America's 70,000 (though a detailed report published by the panel two years later gave a far narrower gap and questioned whether degrees from the two countries were comparable). Even before China gets to the moon, it aims to have a rudimentary space station of its own. The first orbiting module (Tiangong, or Heavenly Palace), which will be used to gain docking experience for the space-station project, will be launched as early as next year. Work on the station itself could begin in 2015, Chinese media say. When the first Long March 5 is delivered to Wenchang in 2014, America may not even have a space-launch vehicle of its own. Unless Mr Obama decides otherwise, the Space Shuttle will retire next year. Its successor, the Ares rocket, is not due to be put into service until 2015. Some scholars in America see this gap in their country's launch capability as an opportunity to reach out to China. The current plan is to rely mainly on Russian and commercial American launch services to get Americans to the International Space Station (ISS). The relationship with Russia can be tricky, as the invasion of Georgia last year demonstrated. Teaming up with China would help spread the risk.




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