Japan Aff Michigan
Inherency – Relations/Credibility
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Inherency – Relations/CredibilityNew Japanese Prime Minister hopes resolving the Okinawa Base issue will strengthen US Japan ties – Plans to address the situation are slated for August The Mainichi Daily News, 6/5/10 (“Kan expected to mend U.S. ties, avoid controversy with Asian,” pg online @ http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20100605p2g00m0in049000c.html //ag) In the aftermath of a Japan-U.S. base row delivering the death blow to the government led by Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, his successor Naoto Kan's first priority in the area of diplomacy is probably to restore confidence in bilateral relations by adhering to a fresh accord on the base relocation. The new prime minister, who will likely make his diplomatic debut next week with his visit to the World Expo in Shanghai, is also expected to assure China, South Korea and other Asian neighbors that Tokyo intends to maintain smooth ties with them as Kan has vowed to inherit Hatoyama's initiative of creating an East Asian community. Only a few weeks after Tuesday's expected launch of his government, Kan will likely join other leaders of the Group of Eight at a meeting in Canada, becoming the fourth straight Japanese leader to participate in the annual summit as a "newcomer." With his diplomatic expertise largely unknown, Kan is advised to learn lessons from Hatoyama's debacle over the transfer of the U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station and try to decide by late August details such as the location and construction methods of the replacement facility as agreed with the United States, observers say. Closing Futenma KT Equal RelationsJapan wants less US troop presence Packard, ’10 (George R., President of the United States-Japan Foundation, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2010, “The United States-Japan Security Treaty at 50,” C^2) The size and impact of the U.S. military footprint in Japan today is almost surely going to be a bone of contention in the months and years ahead. There are still some 85 facilities housing 44,850 U.S. military personnel and 44,289 dependents. Close to 75 percent of the troops are based in Okinawa, an island a little less than one-third the size of Long Island. Their presence is a continuing aggravation to local residents. In 2008, Okinawa Prefecture alone reported 28 airplane accidents, six cases of water pollution from oil waste, 18 uncontrolled land fires, and 70 felonies. And this is to say nothing of the emergence of red-light districts near the bases. U.S. military authorities are quick to point out that the crimes committed by U.S. soldiers can happen anywhere and that they occur at the hands of U.S. troops at the same rate as among comparable cohorts. This is beside the point, however: the Japanese who read reports of such crimes are wondering if the benefits of having foreign troops in their country outweigh the costs. One particularly galling issue for the Japanese is the matter of "host nation support," or "the sympathy budget," which amounts to between $3 billion and $4 billion per year. Back in 1978, when it was eager to head off criticism from Washington for its mounting trade surpluses, the Japanese government agreed to pay for many of the labor costs of the 25,000 Japanese working on U.S. bases. Twenty percent of those workers, it turns out, provide entertainment and food services: a recent list drawn up by the Japanese Ministry of Defense included 76 bartenders, 48 vending machine personnel, 47 golf course maintenance personnel, 25 club managers, 20 commercial artists, 9 leisure-boat operators, 6 theater directors, 5 cake decorators, 4 bowling alley clerks, 3 tour guides, and 1 animal caretaker. As one DPJ Diet member, Shu Watanabe, put it, "Why does Japan need to pay the costs for U.S. service members' entertainment on their holidays?" Futenma Key to RelationsOkinawa base destroys US-Japan relations NYT 1/23 (Martin Feckler, 1/23/10, “ In Japan, U.S. Losing Diplomatic Ground to China”, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/24/world/asia/24japan.html) The White House is pressing Japan to follow through on a controversial deal to keep a base on the island that was agreed to by the more conservative Liberal Democrats who lost control to Mr. Hatoyama’s party last summer after decades of almost uninterrupted power. “If we’re worrying that the Japanese are substituting the Chinese for the Americans, then the worse thing you could do is to behave the way that we’re behaving,” said Daniel Sneider, a researcher on Asian security issues at Stanford University. The new emphasis on China comes as Mr. Hatoyama’s government begins a sweeping housecleaning of Japan’s postwar order after his party’s election victory, including challenging the entrenched bureaucracy’s control of diplomatic as well as economic policy. On security matters, the Liberal Democrats clearly tilted toward Washington. Past governments not only embraced Japan’s half-century military alliance with the United States, but also warned of China’s burgeoning power and regularly angered Beijing by trying to whitewash the sordid episodes of Japan’s 1930s-1940s military expansion. American experts say the Obama administration has been slow to realize the extent of the change in Japan’s thinking about its traditional protector and its traditional rival. Indeed, political experts and former diplomats say China has appeared more adept at handling Japan’s new leaders than the Obama administration has been. And former diplomats here warn that Beijing’s leaders are seizing on the momentous political changes in Tokyo as a chance to improve ties with Japan — and possibly drive a wedge between the United States and Japan. “This has been a golden opportunity for China,” said Kunihiko Miyake, a former high-ranking Japanese diplomat who was stationed in Beijing. “The Chinese are showing a friendlier face than Washington to counterbalance U.S. influence, if not separate Japan from the U.S.” Some conservative Japan experts in Washington have even warned of a more independent Tokyo becoming reluctant to support the United States in a future confrontation with China over such issues as Taiwan, or even to continue hosting the some 50,000 American military personnel now based in Japan. Despite such hand-wringing among Japan experts in the United States, Mr. Hatoyama continues to emphasize that the alliance with Washington remains the cornerstone of Japanese security. And suspicions about China run deep here, as does resentment over Japan’s losing its supremacy in Asia, making a significant shift in loyalty or foreign policy unlikely anytime soon, analysts say. Only rapid realignment can appease the DPJ Yamaguchi, ‘9 (9/1/09, Mari, Associated Press, “Relocation of US troops will test new Japan leader”) In August, some 200 people gathered to oppose the use of Futenma at the campus of Okinawa International University, where a helicopter crashed five years ago, damaging a school building and triggering calls for shutting the base. They want the base off the island altogether, not simply relocated to a less congested area. Hatoyama's party, too, says the base should be moved someplace else in Japan - though no other sites have been suggested. Failure to find a suitable replacement could throw off the timing of the Marines' move and damage the new government's relationship with the U.S. "Japan-U.S. alliance and security issues will be a crucial test for the Democrats," said Tsuneo Watanabe, director of foreign and security policy at the Tokyo Foundation, a private think tank. "If the Okinawa issues don't go smoothly, it could affect the Japan-U.S. alliance." Security relations with the United States are good, but Okinawans have long bristled at the difficulties of hosting so many troops, such as crime by U.S. personnel and congestion caused by the existence of the bases that take up a large swath of the island, and analysts said tensions over the Marines' presence could flare up. "Basically, the DPJ will try to buy as much time as possible, but they can't avoid the issue," said Masaaki Gabe, professor of international relations at the University of the Ryukyus on Okinawa. Solving the Futenma base problem key to US-Japan relations and cooperating on North Korean deterrence The Nation, 6/5 (6/5/10, “Japan’s New PM Pledges Closer US Ties”, http://www.lexisnexis.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T9604415481&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T9604415484&cisb=22_T9604415483&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=220765&docNo=5) Former finance minister Naoto Kan became Japan's new leader yesterday, pledging economic recovery and close ties with Washington after his predecessor quit over a festering dispute about a US air base. A parliamentary vote confirmed Kan as the successor to Yukio Hatoyama, who tearfully resigned as prime minister on Wednesday, citing the row over the base on Japan's Okinawa island and money scandals that sullied his government. Kan, a former leftist activist, is Japan's fifth premier in four years, and the first in over a decade who does not hail from a political dynasty. The 63-year-old previously served as finance minister and deputy premier in Hatoyama's centre-left government, which came to power last year in a landslide election, ending half a century of almost non-stop conservative rule. "My first job is to rebuild the country, and to create a party in which all members can stand up together and say with confidence, 'We can do it!'," a smiling Kan said after his party earlier installed him as its new leader. Kan vowed to revitalise Asia's biggest economy, which has been in the doldrums since an investment bubble collapsed in the early 1990s. "For the past 20 years, the Japanese economy has been at a standstill," said Kan. "Growth has stopped. Young people can't find jobs. This is not a natural phenomenon. It resulted from policy mistakes." "I believe we can achieve a strong economy, strong finances and strong social welfare all at the same time," he said, pledging to reduce Japan's huge public debt which is nearing 200 per cent of gross domestic product. On foreign policy, Kan pointed at the threat posed by communist North Korea, the isolated and nuclear-armed regime that has been blamed for the deadly sinking of a South Korean warship in March. "Japan has a lot of problems, including the North Korean issue," said Kan, stressing that US-Japanese ties remain the "cornerstone" of foreign policy after Hatoyama badly strained relations with Washington over the base issue. Solving Futenma prevents imminent deterioration of US-Japan alliance – DPJ consistency on Futenman is needed to salvage relations Clausen 6/20 – PhD Candidate in International Relations (6/20/10, Daniel, Electronic Journal of Contemporary Japanese Studies, “The Future of Japanese Defense Politics”, http://www.japanesestudies.org.uk/discussionpapers/2010/Clausen.html) Scenario 2: Toward a Rapid Deterioration in the US-Japan Alliance What key indicators would signal a rapid deterioration in the US-Japan alliance? In this scenario, bilateral friction would lead to a less credible US deterrent and a decline in high level meetings between ministers and vice-ministers. In addition, these trends would take place without the benefit of expanded ties with neighboring Asian countries or a well-planned policy for a Japanese military buildup. These are the key indicators for a rapid deterioration in the US-Japan Alliance: In the short term, the DPJ government shows a complete inability to commit one way or the other on the Futenma issue. In the process, the DPJ alienates all its partners, including its coalition members in the upper house, US alliance managers, the Japanese public, and members of its own party. This creates a condition where the US begins to cultivate partners outside of the DPJ government (a scenario that is already unfolding with the Department of State's Kurt Campbell communicating directly with the DPJ's Secretary General Ozawa). This short term indicator could work alone or in conjunction with many of the other indicators usually cited as a sign of deterioration in relations. Base deal key to US-Japan treaty and relations AP, ’10 (6/8/10, Associated Press/UNB Connect, “Japan's new PM says he'll honor base deal with US,” http://www.unbconnect.com/component/news/task-show/id-22766) Ex-Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama - also from Kan's Democratic Party of Japan - stepped down last week after just eight months in office amid criticism for failing to keep a campaign promise to move U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma off Okinawa. Kan said that while he would not break a pact with the U.S. to keep the base on Okinawa, he also recognized the islanders' fierce opposition to the plan and said he would work to alleviate the burden on the island, which hosts more than half the 47,000 U.S. troops in Japan under a security pact. "We must proceed with the issue based on the agreement that we have reached," he said. "It is a very difficult issue that has caused the nation a lot of worry. But I will do my best to provide leadership." He said that the base fracas does not reflect a shift away from Washington in Tokyo's diplomatic stance. "For the past 60 years since World War II, the United States has been a cornerstone of Japanese foreign policy, and it must remain essential," he said. To smooth things over, Kan said he hopes to meet with President Barack Obama during a summit of the G8 industrialized nations later this month in Canada. Bold action on Okinawa is crucial to build strong US Japan relations and resolve Japanese opposition to the base Yamaguchi, 6/6/10 (Mari, writer/journalist for the Associated Press and Community Affairs Coordinator - Promotion Producer/Writer at Tribune Broadcasting, “New Japan PM affirms US ties in call with Obama,” Associated Press, pg online @ http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hlQO-kyvIEyrc0I90V5l0LFN7JTwD9G5L9EO0 //ag) Japan's new prime minister made his diplomatic debut Sunday in a telephone call with President Barack Obama, reaffirming his country's alliance with Washington and promising to work hard on an agreement to relocate a contentious U.S. Marine base. Naoto Kan, a straight-talking populist, was elected prime minister Friday, replacing Yukio Hatoyama who stepped down last week after breaking a campaign promise to move the Marine base off the southern island of Okinawa. Kan told Obama that relations with Washington are a "cornerstone" of Japan's diplomacy and vowed to "further deepen and develop the Japan-U.S. alliance to tackle global and regional challenges," Japan's Foreign Ministry said. He also promised Obama to "make a strenuous effort" to tackle the relocation of Marine Air Station Futenma, it said. Under an agreement signed last month between the two governments, the base is to be moved to a less-crowded part of Okinawa, but Kan faces intense opposition from island residents who want it moved off Okinawa completely, as Hatoyama had promised. Because their opposition is so intense, some analysts have questioned whether the plan can actually be carried out. A White House statement did not mention Futenma, saying "the two leaders agreed to work very closely together" and consult on the nuclear programs in North Korea and Iran. An administration official added the leaders "hit it off well on a personal level." US In Japan Inhibits Japanese Realations with other East Asian Countries Bandow 4/5 senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan J.D [Doug, 05 April 2010. from Stanford University What Good are Allies? Turning Means into Ends By Doug Bandow http://www.acdalliance.org/articles/04-05-2010-what-good-are-allies-turning-means-ends-doug-bandow; WBTR] The impact of America's alliance with Japan is only slightly less pernicious. Grant that historical memories are long, and Tokyo's neighbors prefer U.S. to Japanese warships plying Pacific sea-lanes. That preference is no cause for Washington to take on the burden of defending populous and prosperous nations which have reason to cooperate to maintain the peace and stability which is in all of their interest. Japan and its neighbors need to -- and without a forward American presence would be forced to -- work together to protect their region. 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