Japan Aff Michigan



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***GUAM


No Guam

Relocating outside of Okinawa means no additional marine relocation to Guam

Kan & Niksch, 1/19 – Specialists in Asian Security Affairs (1/19/10, Shirley & Larry, Congressional Research Service, “Guam: U.S. Defense Deployments”, http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA513871)
In addition to Japan’s financial contribution, the relocation to Guam would be dependent upon Japan’s progress toward completion of the Futenma Replacement Facility (FRF). In the “Roadmap,” the United States and Japan agreed to replace the Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Futenma with the FRF constructed using landfill and located in another, less populated area of Okinawa (at Camp Schwab). The FRF would be part of an interconnected package that includes relocation to the FRF, return of MCAS Futenma, transfer of III MEF personnel to Guam, and consolidation of facilities and return of land on Okinawa. In April 2009, the lower house of Japan’s parliament, the Diet, voted to approve the bilateral agreement, and the Diet ratified it on May 13, 2009. The next day, the Department of State welcomed the Diet’s ratification of the agreement and reiterated the U.S. commitment to the completion of the relocation of 8,000 marines to Guam from Okinawa, host to about 25,000 U.S. military personnel and their dependents. However, on September 16, 2009, Yukio Hatoyama of the Democratic Party of Japan became Prime Minister, and this political change raised questions about whether Japan would seek to renegotiate the agreement even before discussions about its implementation. Hatoyama had called for the Futenma air station to be relocated outside of Okinawa, with concerns about the impact on the local people and environment. Visiting Tokyo on September 18, Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell stressed that it is important to stay the course. In Tokyo on October 21, Defense Secretary Robert Gates stressed to Japan’s Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa the importance of implementing the agreement by “moving forward expeditiously on the roadmap as agreed.” Gates said at a news conference that “without the [FRF], there will be no relocation to Guam. And without relocation to Guam, there will be no consolidation of forces and return of land in Okinawa.” But by the time of President Obama’s visit on November 13, 2009, the two leaders could only announce a “working group” to discuss differences. The U.S. side agreed to discuss the agreement’s “implementation,” but Japan sought to “review” the agreement.

No Guam - Infrastructure



Status quo policy doesn’t allocate enough resources for infrastructure development

Pincus 09 (4/12/09, Walter, Washington Post Staff Writer, “GAO Says Military Expansion Will Tax Guam’s Infrastructure”, Washington Post, A-SECTION; Pg. A02)
The infrastructure and social services on Guam in the next five years will not meet the needs of the more than 8,000 Marines and their 9,000 dependents expected to relocate there, even as other U.S. military facilities on the Pacific island are expanding, according to the Government Accountability Office. Under a 2005 agreement with Japan, the Marines will transfer from Okinawa to Guam by 2014. At the same time, a $13 billion expansion is planned for Air Force bases and Navy port facilities on the island. Together, the changes will increase Guam's population by almost 15 percent and "substantially" tax the island's infrastructure, the GAO said in a report sent to Congress on Friday. Guam's water and wastewater systems "are near capacity and demand may increase by 25 percent," the GAO said. The island's solid-waste facilities have "reached the end of their projected useful life," and the military construction demands "will exceed local capacity and the availability of workers on Guam," the GAO added. As a result, outside workers will need to move to the island, the report said. Also citing what could be an inadequate electric grid capacity and an overload for Guam's only two major highways, the GAO called on Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates to urge that other government agencies make the island's problems a higher priority in their budgets. Although the Defense Department is expected to pay for infrastructure projects directly related to the military buildup and contribute toward utilities and roads, the Guam government "is largely responsible for obtaining funding for civilian requirements related to the buildup," the GAO said. At a May Senate hearing, Gov. Felix P. Camacho (R) said Guam would need $6.1 billion for fiscal 2010 to support the military buildup. Guam's revenue for fiscal 2010 is projected at $532 million.
Expanding infrastructure is a prerequisite to base operation

Jowers, ‘8 (5/10/08, Karen, Air Force Times, “Military Buildup Threatens to Overwhelm Guam,” http://www.airforcetimes.com/news/2008/05/airforce_guam_051008p/)
If Guam doesn’t get money soon from the federal government to help prepare for the massive military buildup coming to the island in the next few years, it could affect not only the island’s permanent residents but also the quality of life for the service members and families who will move there, the island’s governor told lawmakers. “No American community can shoulder the challenges of a 30 percent increase in population” in such a short time, Guam Gov. Felix Camacho said. Guam’s population of about 171,000 includes about 14,000 people connected to the Defense Department, but that is expected to triple, to more than 40,000, in a five-year period, said David Bice, executive director of the Joint Guam Program Office for the Navy’s assistant secretary for installations and environment. That includes 8,000 Marines and their 9,000 family members relocating from Okinawa to Guam by 2014, as well as the addition of about 1,000 airmen at Andersen Air Force Base. Including active-duty airmen, reservists and dependents, the population of Andersen will swell from about 8,500 to nearly 12,000 by early in the next decade. The people of Guam expect the federal government to underwrite the costs directly related to the military buildup, Camacho told the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee on May 1. Guamanians are worried about the potential strains on their port, roads, electrical system, health care system, wastewater system and social programs. Camacho noted that military personnel and their families “will travel the same roads, use the same resources and live in the same community we all share today. ... We want to be ready so we can continue to provide America’s front lines with a home away from home, without jeopardizing the basic services the government of Guam provides to the local community.” Although Guam’s government has been working to improve roads, schools and other infrastructure, it is unfair to expect any community to take on such exponential growth in such a short timeline, he said. Because of its strategic location in the western Pacific and its status as U.S. soil, Air Force leaders envision Guam becoming a major staging ground from which to project air power throughout Asia. Buildup has already begun The ramp-up is already underway. Andersen has hosted continuous long-range bomber deployments since 2004, and the base began construction in 2006 on a $242 million Expeditionary Combat Support Training campus. The campus will host the 554th Red Horse Squadron and a combat communications squadron, both relocating from South Korea. Andersen also expects to gain a permanent tanker presence as soon as fiscal 2009, and the base is slated to receive the first of seven Global Hawk surveillance drones in 2009 or 2010. The Navy plans to build a transient nuclear aircraft carrier-capable pier at Apra Harbor and beef up its submarine presence, and the Army plans to put a ballistic missile defense task force on the island. The most pressing concern, Camacho said, is Guam’s only civilian seaport, which expects to see six times the number of containers it now handles to support the construction boom. The port will bear the brunt of incoming military cargo and will be a critical chokepoint to support the buildup, he said. Expanding the port will cost an estimated $195 million, Guam officials said. Local officials have been taking steps on their own to prepare, he said. For example, the master plan for expansion of the port is before the Guam legislature. But officials have received little Defense Department guidance, and uncertainties about the buildup contribute to the difficulty of crafting a fully formed plan, said Brian Lepore, the Government Accountability Office’s director of defense capabilities and management. Commitments between the U.S. and the government of Japan, Camacho said, were made “without consideration of our capacity.”


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