Japan Aff Michigan

DPJ Unpopular - Futenma

[In Japan, the problem that led to the dissolution of former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's government now is vexing the new government. Earlier this month, Hatoyama resigned over the controversy about the continued presence of thousands of U.S. troops stationed on the Japanese island of Okinawa. He promised but failed to bring about their relocation. The new government in Tokyo is facing the same problem with little prospect of a solution. Many of the 18,000 U.S. Marines based in Japan are located at the Marine Corps Air Station Futenma on Okinawa. Over the years, Okinawans have pressed harder and harder to move the base away from their island. After the opposition Democratic Party of Japan pulled off a historic electoral victory last year, Hatoyama got caught by promises to close the base that he couldn't keep. He resigned after only eight months in office. His successor, Naoto Kan, took office earlier this month. It is not clear how he will deal with the problem of Okinawa, says political analyst Masatoshi Honda of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies. "He hasn't made any clear statement about Futenma before and even right now. He just said he will follow the decision of the previous prime minister. So we cannot see what he really wants to do on this issue," Honda says.]

July Poll Key

Big DPJ victory in July poll means Kan reelection and consumption tax hike passage; a loss means regime instability

The Daily Yomiuri (Tokyo), 6/25 (6/25/10, “Upper House Election 2010”, http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T100624004273.htm)
The upcoming House of Councillors election will determine whether the ruling coalition parties can maintain the majority in the 242-seat upper house. The outcome of the election may affect the fate of the newly formed administration of Prime Minister Naoto Kan. "We're living in a time when individual values have become so diverse that it's difficult to retain more than 50 seats," Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku said during a press conference Wednesday. "If we clear Kan's target, it will be proof of the public's trust in this administration." Sengoku estimates that the DPJ's winning line will be the "54 seats plus alpha" Kan has named as his target for the upcoming election, campaigning for which officially began Thursday. There are 54 DPJ seats being contested, but that figure is rather modest compared with forecasts by other DPJ members. Their bullish outlook no doubt comes on the back of the high approval rating for the new Cabinet, which was formed in the wake of a prime ministerial resignation. A DPJ win of more than 60 seats--higher than the party's expectations--would combine with their 62 uncontested seats to reach a majority of 122 seats in the upper house. It would be the first time in 21 years that a single party has claimed a majority in the upper house. A landslide victory for the DPJ would cement the foundation for the Kan administration, paving the way for the incumbent prime minister to be reelected in his party's presidential election in September. It will also serve as a spur for Kan's tax reform plan, which includes a consumption tax hike. Coalition still in the cards Even if the DPJ manages to only win between 56 and 59 seats, the Kan administration will remain stable as the ruling parties--the DPJ, People's New Party and independents--will still be the majority. However, the PNP will have little say if the DPJ wins a majority on its own. In the event the DPJ wins fewer than 60 seats, the PNP will have a more important presence and the DPJ will have little choice but to prioritize the passage of the PNP's pet postal reform bills. The PNP is remaining cautious over the consumption tax rate hike, and if the DPJ wins fewer than 60 seats, it will become more difficult to reach consensus within the ruling parties over tax reform issues, possibly triggering another political realignment. With this in mind, DPJ Secretary General Yukio Edano told The Yomiuri Shimbun on Wednesday he was considering forming an in-house team immediately after the election to start working on a bill to shrink the number of Diet members required for a quorum. Edano's statement means the DPJ will immediately begin working on one of the party's pledges in the upper house election: the reduction of about 40 upper house seats, as well as an 80-seat cut in the proportional representation constituencies in the House of Representatives. "Lawmakers need to show they are willing to sacrifice their careers to create conditions favorable for a consumption tax hike, which places the burden on the people," a senior DPJ member said. Edano's proposal could be intended to rattle the PNP and other parties, which would be more affected by a reduction in the number of Diet seats, to allow the DPJ to better manage the Diet after the poll. DPJ loss a boon for Ozawa? If the DPJ wins 54 or 55 seats in the upper house election and the PNP fails to win a seat, the ruling parties will lose their majority. Given those figures, Kan's goal of "54 seats plus alpha" is in a gray zone when trying to determine if the DPJ has won or lost the election. Few observers think a failure to maintain the majority would cause DPJ party members to call for Kan to resign, but a midranking DPJ member said such a result would eventually undermine his leadership in the party. Meanwhile, the Kan administration and the DPJ will have to give more consideration to the PNP when dealing with legislation in the upper house--which could increase the voice of the PNP in the Diet. If the DPJ wins fewer than 54 seats--the line set by Kan--the prime minister will likely be blamed for the result, as this is less than the number of seats the party currently holds. If the DPJ wins less than 50 seats, pressure on Kan to resign would probably increase, which could cause political upheaval. If the DPJ loses the election, the party is expected to ask another party to join the coalition to avoid a "divided Diet," in which the lower house is controlled by the ruling coalition and the upper house by the opposition camp. The DPJ is expected to battle fiercely to form a majority, with a political shake-up a real possibility. Within the DPJ, moves by former Secretary General Ichiro Ozawa will likely be a focal point. Ozawa has said he will act as a foot soldier, and superficially has stepped off the political stage. However, his faction is the largest force in the party, with more than 100 junior and midranking lawmakers. Ozawa is likely concerned that prosecutors will be obliged to indict him if the Committee for the Inquest of Prosecution decides again that he should be indicted. However, if criticism of the current administration and the DPJ's top leadership increases after the election, Ozawa may move to regain his power in the party. The former secretary general is believed to have set his sights on the DPJ party presidential election in September. As Ozawa has hopped from one party to another in the past, the DPJ's top leaders fear he may jump ship or break up the party.

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