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Credibility KT RelationsMore regime change means Japan gives the US a cold shoulder, tanking relations Feffer, ’10 - co-director of Foreign Policy In Focus at the Institute for Policy Studies, Writing Fellow at Provisions Library in Washington, DC, PanTech fellow in Korean Studies at Stanford University, and a former associate editor of World Policy Journal (April 2010, John, Ciao Policy Briefs, “Allied Regime Change,” http://www.ciaonet.org/pbei/fpif/0018824/index.html) The uncomfortable truth may be that the Obama administration wants a regime change in Tokyo. It doesn't matter that Hatoyama is the Japanese version of Obama: a new face with a message of change. It doesn't matter that Hatoyama's rebellion is but a tiny squeak: the renegotiation of the 2006 agreement, the closure of the refueling mission for the Afghan War, a plea for greater equality in alliance relations. What matters is the emergence of a Japan that can say no. Let's be clear: this is not anti-Americanism. There are few voices in Japan that call for an end to the U.S.-Japan alliance. The Hatoyama government sensibly wants to focus a little more on regional relations, particularly with China, and reduce the heavy burden on the Japanese economy of laying out billions of dollars every year to support U.S. military bases. Hatoyama's approval ratings have plummeted during this face-off with the United States. Washington has pushed the prime minister up against the wall and, frankly, made him look weak and indecisive. The hardball strategy from Washington was clearly designed at first to change the opinion of the Japanese government. Now it seems as though Washington wants to change the Japanese government altogether. Some lawmakers in Hatoyama's government are calling on him to resign if he doesn't resolve the base issue by the end-of-May deadline. Memo to the president: Don't hold your breath. The popularity of Hatoyama's party may well hover around 25 percent. But the opposition Liberal Democratic Party's popularity has dropped to 14 percent. The era of blind compliance with U.S. wishes is over. A regime change in Tokyo, facilitated by U.S. intransigence, might still be in the offing. But Washington will still have to deal with a new Japanese foreign policy and certain unavoidable trends in the Japanese economy. Regime stability key to prevent economic collapse, Japan relations, and East Asian security PBS, ’10 (6/2/10, PBS, “Japan Seeks Political Stability After Another Prime Minister Resigns,” http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/2010/06/japans-prime-minister-resigns.html) "The commentary in Tokyo this morning and around the world, frankly, is all about here we go again, another Japanese prime minister has resigned after barely a year in office," said Sheila Smith, senior fellow for Japan studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. "Stabilizing Japanese politics, at least stabilizing Japanese political leadership is probably one of the highest priorities right now." That will be a difficult task, Smith continued, because "for the first time in half a century, you have a new political party and a major massive political transition." But stability is needed for Japan to tackle many issues, including economic growth, putting their fiscal house in order, addressing the needs of an aging society, and diplomatic and security priorities in foreign policy, she said. Regime credibility key to political stability in Japan ARPO, ’10 (6/4/10, Angus Reid Public Opinion, “Will Naoto Kan Bring Stability to Japan?” http://www.angus-reid.com/analysis/view/35601/will_naoto_kan_bring_stability_to_japan/) The DPJ has already elected a new leader. Naoto Kan, a heavyweight and the country’s finance minister, will not only inherit the inefficiencies of a four-year governing gap and a country that needs immediate attention. He will face a completely disillusioned electorate, too. The next prime minister—who unlike his predecessors is not associated to a political dynasty—needs to expect unpopularity and the need to make tough decisions. Japan’s heads of government cannot continue to step down as soon as the polls dictate that they have fallen out of favour with the electorate. A man who will cope well with loneliness at the top would be a good start for some much needed stability in Japan. Credibility KT StabilityRegime consistency and credibility key to regional stability WSJ, ’10 (5/23/10, Wall Street Journal, “Future of U.S. Bases Bolstered in Japan,” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704546304575261332428348428.html) Obama administration officials were cautious in response, in part because Mr. Hatoyama's handling of the matter has been inconsistent, and because a formal deal between the two countries won't be sealed until a bilateral statement set for later this week. "We are working closely with our ally Japan on a way forward that maintains regional security and stability in a manner that minimizes the impact on base-hosting communities," Ben Chang, a deputy spokesman for the National Security Council, said in a statement. "U.S. bases are the front lines of our alliance, and an anchor of stability in the region," he added. View Full Image Reuters Japan Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama speaks in Okinawa. Mr. Hatoyama's Sunday announcement will smooth ties with the Obama administration, but raises the prospect of new domestic political trouble for his fragile ruling coalition—possibly including his resignation. Mr. Hatoyama's poll ratings now stand about 20%, driven down sharply from the 70% range he once enjoyed. Zig-zagging on the Okinawa issue has been one factor undermining his popularity. 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