Japan Aff Michigan


Stability KT Deter Chinese Aggression



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Stability KT Deter Chinese Aggression



Regime stability key to deterring Chinese aggression and overtaking US leadership

Kapila, ’10 - an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst, and the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group (6/7/10, Subhash, South Asian Analysis, http://www.southasiaanalysis.org//papers39/paper3848.html)
Japan has a vital role to play in the stability and security of North East Asia. North East Asia encompasses within its confines some of the most explosive flashpoints around the globe. China’s latent hostility towards United States forward military presence in North East Asia is exercised by proxy through its militarily wayward protégé North Korea. Both target Japan's security and political stability to weaken its resolve to be an effective strategic partner of the United States. A strategically over-stretched United States especially under the present US Administration is engaged in a misplaced strategic initiative to enlist China as a partner in the strategic management of North East Asia and Asia. Japan whose security environment has been made more threatening by China’s military ambitions and North Korea as a nuclear weapons state, courtesy China, views US moves towards China as strategically insensitive. Its spill-off effect on Japanese domestic politics is the growing figuring of US-Japan Security Relationship issues in Japan’s domestic politics, including frequent change of Prime Ministers. Japan’s recurrent political instability has a wide strategic impact on Japan’s policy formulations, crisis-management responses and its international image. Any further downslide in this direction can only help China and endanger US security interests and architecture in East Asia. The United States needs to awaken to this fact and also that the more “equitability” it endows to the Japan-US relationship may assist in lessening Japan’s political instability.


Stability KT No Escalation



Regime stability key to effective crisis management, which is key to prevent conflict escalation

Kapila, ’10 - an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst, and the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group (6/7/10, Subhash, South Asian Analysis, http://www.southasiaanalysis.org//papers39/paper3848.html)
North East Asia comprises the region China-Taiwan- Japan-Korean Peninsula, Russia and USA. This region today is overwhelmed by a number of strategic crises endangering regional stability and peace. The crises today are focused more on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and its military provocative adventurism e.g. sinking of South Korea. Navy ship by a North Korea Navy submarine. Over-arching over all this is the US-China rivalry, this US-Russia rivalry the Japan- China regional rivalry and Japan’s territorial disputes with all its neighbors. Each one of these issues are potential flash points in North East Asia. Japan gets drawn into all these strategic flash points in one way or the other. Japan’s capacity to manage crises and crisis-response manoeuvrability gets seriously impaired if it is plagued by domestic political instability Japan's crisis management capacities get further impaired when political instability emerges from Japan-US Security Relationship which so far has provided Japan and USA a combined strategic weight to handle regional crises. More than a healthy and stable Japan-China relationship, there is a greater strategic imperative and a call on the United States that American approaches to China and overbearing American approaches to contentious Japan-US security issues does not render Japan vulnerable to China's strategic and political coercion.

Stability KT Deterrence



Regime stability key to US power projection, prevent an East Asian power vacuum, and contain China

Kapila, ’10 - an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst, and the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group (6/7/10, Subhash, South Asian Analysis, http://www.southasiaanalysis.org//papers39/paper3848.html)
This significant change can be attributed to two strategic factors, both pertaining to the United States. In the past United States reigned supreme strategically in East Asia. That strategic strength provided Japan with a sheet anchor for its security. Today, United States strategic power is on the decline and China is rising strategically strong in East Asia. Japanese insecurities therefore are raised. More seriously, Japanese insecurities are magnified further when Japan perceives that United States policy formulations in East Asia exhibit ambiguities about Japan’s strategic sensitivities. Under the present US Administration, even though the US President and US Secretary of State visited Japan first in East Asia, but in their pronouncements in Tokyo they seemed to indicate that the United States intends to adopt China as a partner in the security management of East Asia. With such US attitudinal adoptions, it becomes logical for Japanese public to question the very premises of US-Japan Mutual Security Treaty, Japan’s financial underwriting of US forward military presence in Asia and the sizeable US Marines presence on Okinawa Island. One gets a feeling from media features in Japanese press that strong resentment is surfacing in Japan on these issues. More importantly the arrogance of US officials in dealings with Japan’s security matters is being resented. No wonder outgoing Japanese PM Hatoyama made pointed public references during President Obama’s visit to Tokyo that United States needs to manage relations with Japan on a more "equitable basis". He was airing widespread Japanese sentiments on the issue. The United States security architecture in East Asia could collapse without Japan’s participation. The United States would need to address Japan’s sensibilities on security issues on a more imaginative and equitable basis. US obliviousness to this aspect could generate more political instability in Japan endangering US security interests. A politically unstable Japan could create a strategic vacuum in East Asia in which China could assertively step in to fill the vacuum to the strategic discomfiture of the United States.


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