Japan’s debt problem risks global economic collapse—need strong leadership for reform
The Economist, 6/5 (6/5/10, “Leaderless Japan; Yukio Hatoyama Resigns”, http://www.lexisnexis.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T9621498533&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T9621498537&cisb=22_T9621498536&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=7955&docNo=3)
It used to be the envy of the world; now the hope is that things have got so bad that reform is finally possible SINCE 2006 Japan has had no fewer than five prime ministers. Three of them lasted just a year. The feckless Yukio Hatoyama, who stepped down on June 2nd, managed a grand total of 259 days. Particularly dispiriting about Mr Hatoyama's sudden departure is that his election last August looked as if it marked the start of something new in Japanese politics after decades of rule by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). His government has turned out to be as incompetent, aimless and tainted by scandal as its predecessors. Much of the responsibility for the mess belongs with Mr Hatoyama. The man known as "the alien", who says the sight of a little bird last weekend gave him the idea to resign, has shown breathtaking lack of leadership. Although support for his Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has slumped in opinion polls and the government relied on minor parties, the most glaring liabilities have been over Mr Hatoyama's own murky financial affairs and his dithering about where to put an American military base. The question for the next prime minister, to be picked in a DPJ vote on June 4th, is whether Mr Hatoyama's failure means that Japan's nine-month experiment with two-party democracy has been a misconceived disaster. The answer is of interest not just within Japan. Such is the recent merry-go-round of prime ministers that it is easy to assume that whoever runs the show makes no difference to the performance of the world's second-largest economy. Now Japan's prominence in Asia has so clearly been eclipsed by China, its flimsy politicians are all the easier to dismiss. But that dangerously underestimates Japan's importance to the world and the troubles it faces. With the largest amount of debt relative to the size of its economy among the rich countries, and a stubborn deflation problem to boot, Japan has an economic time-bomb ticking beneath it. It may be able to service its debt comfortably for the time being, but the euro zone serves as a reminder that Japan needs strong leadership to stop the bomb from exploding.
AT: Tax Hike Kills Credibility
Consumption tax hike won’t kill Kan’s government
Rowley, 6/22 (6/22/10, Anthony, The Business Times Singapore, “Finances Will Collapse Without New Sources of Revenue: Kan”, http://www.lexisnexis.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T9604917578&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T9604917587&cisb=22_T9604917586&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=11432&docNo=2)
With a critical upper house parliamentary election due on July 11, analysts say that Mr Kan - who took over the helm of Japan's government from former prime minister Yukio Hatoyama only this month - could face political suicide if Japanese voters rebel against his call for reviewing the unpopular consumption tax. Opinion polls published yesterday by Japanese media showed that the popularity of Mr Kan's administration among surveyed voters had fallen - from the near 60 per cent to which it surged after Yukio Hatoyama stepped down - to nearer 50 per cent. But Mr Kan made it clear last night that he is determined to 'get down to full-scale discussions' on tax reform as soon as the election is over. Depending on the outcome of the election, the DPJ could emerge with an absolute majority in both houses of parliament, or find itself in a position of legislative gridlock if the opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Japan makes gains in the upper house. Analysts say that by adopting the LDP's election manifesto suggestion that Japan's consumption tax might need to be raised from 5-10 per cent - and inviting the LDP to jointly discuss tax reform with it - the ruling party has effectively prevented the opposition from making political capital out of a potentially unpopular reform. The prime minister last night sought to quell fears of an immediate increase in the consumption tax, which had brought about the downfall of previous Japanese prime ministers. The minimum required to prepare administratively for possible tax rebates less wealthy people could be 'two to three years', he said. He also promised that 'when proposals are finalised, we would like to put them to the people for their judgement', apparently indicating that such reforms could be made the subject of a referendum or a dissolution of parliament.
Tax Good
Kan will decrease the corporate income tax—solves Japanese competitiveness
Hayashi, 6/18(6/18/10, Yuka, The Wall Street Journal, “Japan’s Kan Seeks Corporate Tax Cut”, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703438604575314552136751966.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us)
TOKYO—Japan's new prime minister is pushing deep cuts in corporate taxes in hopes of spurring more business investment, even as he embraces higher income and consumption taxes to curb the country's mammoth public debt. At 40%, Japan's corporate tax rate is highest among major nations—a longtime source of frustration among executives. Japan's disadvantage has been further highlighted in recent years as nations have raced to lower their tax rates in an increasingly competitive global business landscape. Japan Real Time Debt & Taxes .A corporate tax cut would "strengthen the competitiveness of companies based in Japan and encourage investments by foreign companies,"says the government's "growth strategy" document, released Friday. With a goal of achieving a 3% nominal growth rate and ending deflation, Prime Minister Naoto Kan's aides identify in the blueprint scores of "national strategy" projects in key areas like the environment, health care and infrastructure exports to Asia. The document also calls for merging various financial exchanges to try to enhance Japan's role as a regional financial hub. .As for corporate tax, the government said the effective rate will be lowered in phases to "levels in other major nations," referring to the average rate of 26% among the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development nations. Japan didn't specify further. The equivalent rate in the U.S. is close to Japan at 39%, but different rules on depreciation and other areas make the total tax burden generally lighter in the U.S., experts say. In Singapore, the corporate tax rate is 17%, in South Korea 24%, and in Germany, 30%, according to the OECD. Business investment in Japan could use a boost, analysts say.The nation is facing an increasing risk for "hollowed out" industries due to competition from lower-cost nations like China and the high cost of operating in Japan. Nissan Motor Co., for example, this year ended production of the March compact car, one of its most popular models, at its factory near Tokyo and shifted it to a plant in Thailand where the government had offered a huge tax incentive.In a survey of chief executives of 69 top companies conducted by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun daily this month, lowering the corporate tax was No. 2 onthe list of their wish list, trailing behind a comprehensive growth strategy from the government. They have a friend in Masayuki Naoshima, minister of economy, industry and trade. Noting that the corporate tax rate in Japan is 10 to 15 points higher than in other major nations, the senior lawmaker repeatedly said this month the tax should be lowered in phases, saying the first cut of 5 points should take place in April. "We have had this kind of discussion for 10 long years," Mr. Naoshima said at a news conference. "Companies from Japan and overseas have been looking at this, thinking where is this country headed?" Still, lowering the tax is a concession for Tokyo, given its large government borrowing.Japan's national debt is highest among major nations, a result of many years of hefty stimulus spending on infrastructure projects that have largely failed to deliver sustainable growth.The government's gross debt is likely to reach 225% of its gross domestic product this year, according to the International Monetary Fund. Since taking office on June 8, Mr. Kan has stressed the need to put the nation's fiscal house in order, warning that continued reliance on debt would cause Japan to face the risk of "fiscal collapse." On Thursday, Mr. Kan surprised the nation by unveiling a plan to double its broad sales tax from 5%. Economists also expect rises in the income tax.