Now Key
Hatoyama tainted every member of his party – Kan’s credibility is going fast, and will be gone if nothing is done about Futenma
NPR, ’10 (6/2/10, NPR, “Japan’s Prime Minister Resigns Over U.S. Base,” http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=127356895)
Even after the prime minister's seat is filled, Japan's leadership crisis is likely to linger on. National parliamentary elections will be held in July, and for many Japanese, Hatoyama's fall has tainted every member of his party. "Hatoyama has brought into question the competence of the entire party," one TV commentator said. "It will be hard for the Democrats to regain public trust." The slick-haired, soft-spoken Hatoyama, who grew up in a well-to-do family of politicians, may have grown too out of touch with everyday people and their economic hardships. "I was very disappointed," said Masahiro Ueda, 38, who works for a software company, of Hatoyama's failure to deliver. "I thought he could change things, but in the end the issue just went back to square one."
Now key to regime credibility
Shuster, 10 (6/21/10, Mike, National Public Radio, “Japan's PM Faces Test Over U.S. Base On Okinawa,” http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=127932447)
(INCLUDING CARD ABOVE) [But this is not a position that all Japanese support. In order to handle the matter successfully, Kan, the new prime minister, will have to explain that need better to the Japanese people, say some analysts. Narushige Michishita, a specialist in strategic and defense studies at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, says Kan needs to address the issue of defending Japan. Michishita is sympathetic to the U.S. position, but he believes it will be difficult for Kan to convince the Japanese, especially the people of Okinawa, of the dangers Japan may face that require a large U.S. military presence. "In a way he has been a little bit exaggerating the need for U.S. troops in Okinawa for the defense of Japan at the current moment," Michishita says.]
Kan Key
Kan can make US concessions happen
Stars and Stripes, ’10 (6/18/10, Stars and Stripes, “Futenma fight could linger despite Japan’s new prime minister,” http://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/okinawa/futenma-fight-could-linger-despite-japan-s-new-prime-minister-1.107689)
Yet, both countries strengthened their pledge to take Okinawans’ complaints seriously and explore ways to move U.S. military training off the island. Kan, a political activist with a working class background, is in better position to make such concessions happen, many say. Kan is a realist. When he picks a fight, he expects to win it. His biggest political success involved exposing a Japanese policy that, for nearly a decade, ignored a more modern blood-treatment method and ended up spreading HIV-infected blood to hemophiliacs. “People respect him for that,” said Sheila Smith, a senior fellow of the Council on Foreign Relations. “He took on something wrong and made it right. When he cares about something, he really goes after it.” Kan also has the advantage of learning from Hatoyama’s missteps. In office since June 4, Kan has already moved to unify the public positions of his ministries of defense and foreign affairs and named a high-level secretary to oversee the Futenma matter.
America Key
Kan’s promise to relocate Futenma to another part of Okinawa is unpopular—permanent closing can only start with America
McCurry, 6/8 (6/8/10, Justin, Christian Science Monitor, “Japan’s Naoto Kan Promises Fresh Start with New Cabinet”, http://www.lexisnexis.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T9604415481&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T9604415484&cisb=22_T9604415483&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=7945&docNo=2)
Sticking with unpopular US base decision. Despite his reputation for stubbornness, Kan demonstrated his pragmatic side by agreeing to honor Hatoyama's decision to relocate Futenma airbase within Okinawa, as demanded by Washington. In a phone call over the weekend with US President Barack Obama, he said relations with Washington were the "cornerstone" of Japan's diplomacy and vowed to "further deepen and develop the Japan-US alliance to tackle global and regional challenges," according to Japan's foreign ministry A White House statement said the leaders "agreed to work very closely" on a range of issues. The pair reportedly "hit it off well on a personal level." The Futenma debacle has divided opinion not only in Japan but also on the other side of the Pacific. Doug Bandow, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, a Washington D.C.-based libertarian think tank, questioned the need for the US to bankroll Japan's security. "The new prime minister won't be much different from the old one," Mr. Bandow wrote. "Or the ones before him. If change is to come to the US-Japan security relationship, it will have to come from America. "And it should start with professed fiscal conservatives asking why the US taxpayers, on the hook for a US$1.6 trillion deficit this year alone, must forever subsidize the nation with the world's second-largest economy."
Population KT Credibility
Population key to regime stability/credibility
Harris, ’10 - a Japanese politics specialist who worked for a DPJ member of the upper house of the Diet (6/2/10, Tobias, Observing Japan, “Regime change?” http://www.observingjapan.com/2010/06/regime-change.html)
That Hatoyama and Ozawa were at the head of the new regime when the DPJ took power was a bit strange. Of course they were among the party's most senior and experienced politicians. There really was no alternative, and no other candidate — aside from Okada — was capable of challenging last year's passing of the torch from Ozawa and Hatoyama (thanks to Maehara Seiji's disastrous tenure as party leader). But these two hereditary politicians whose careers began in the LDP wound up at the head of a parliamentary majority composed largely of newcomers to politics, very few of whom had relatives in politics. The DPJ's promise was less in its policy program, aside from its institutional reforms, than in the new blood it injected into the Japanese political system. But between their corruption scandals and the fact that no one could tell just what Ozawa's role was in policymaking, the DPJ diarchy managed to squander its new majority. More than Hatoyama's, Ozawa's departure provides the DPJ with a chance to reclaim some of the energy. It will enable a party leadership to abandon Ozawa's courtship of fading interest groups and focus once again on speaking to floating voters. Inevitably the next secretary-general will not overshadow the prime minister, meaning that the secretary-general might actually help the prime minister sell his policies to the public while corralling the party's backbenchers.
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