Online appendix for “When Have Violent Civil Conflicts Spread? Introducing a Dataset of Substate Conflict Contagion”
Table A.1. Neighborhoods
Neighborhood
|
States
|
North America
|
Canada, United States, Mexico
|
Central America
|
Mexico, Guatemala, Belize, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama (plus Cuba as a State A of all states, because of its influence in Latin America)
|
Caribbean
|
Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago
|
South America
|
Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Paraguay, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, Guyana, Suriname (plus Cuba as a State A of all states)
|
Western Europe
|
United Kingdom, Ireland, France, Spain, Portugal, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Switzerland, Italy, Austria, Norway, Sweden, Finland
|
Eastern Europe
|
Poland, Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia, Croatia, Macedonia, Slovenia, Greece, Hungary, Albania (plus Russia as a State A of all states)
|
Former Soviet Union (Eastern Europe)
|
Moldova (with Romania as a State A), Ukraine, Belarus, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia (plus Russia as a State A of all states)
|
Former Soviet Union (Caucasus)
|
Russia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia
|
Former Soviet Union (Central Asia)
|
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan (plus Afghanistan, China, Pakistan, and Russia as State As of all states)
|
Near East
|
Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Cyprus
|
Persian Gulf States
|
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen/North Yemen, South Yemen
|
Central Asia
|
Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan
|
South Asia
|
India, Hyderabad, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka (plus China as a State A of all states; plus Burma as a State A of India)
|
Southeast Asia
|
Burma, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam/North Vietnam, South Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Brunei, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, East Timor (plus China as a State A of all states; plus India as a State A of Burma)
|
Northeast Asia
|
Mongolia, China, Taiwan, Japan, North Korea, South Korea (plus Russia as a State A of China, Mongolia, and North Korea)
|
North Africa
|
Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Mali, Niger, Chad, Mauritania
|
West Africa
|
Mauritania, Mali, Senegal, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte D’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Niger, Nigeria, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon
|
Central Africa
|
Chad, Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Republic of the Congo, Central African Republic, Tanzania, Djibouti (plus Angola as a State A of both Congo’s)
|
Southern Africa
|
Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Mozambique, Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland, Madagascar, Comoros, Mauritius (plus D.R. Congo as a State A of Angola)
|
Table A.2. List of cases of potential substate conflict contagion
Potential State B
(potential receiver)
|
Onset Year of State B’s Conflict
|
Potential State A(s)
(potential senders)
|
United States (vs. Al Qaeda)
|
2001
|
Mexico
|
Dominican Republic (vs. military faction)
|
1965
|
Cuba
|
Trinidad and Tobago (vs. Jamaat al-Muslimeen)
|
1990
|
Haiti
|
Mexico (vs. EZLN/EPR)
|
1994
|
El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Panama
|
Guatemala (vs. military faction, etc.)
|
1949
|
Costa Rica
|
Guatemala (vs. FAR I)
|
1965
|
Cuba
|
El Salvador (vs. forces of Benjamin Mejia)
|
1972
|
Guatemala
|
El Salvador (vs. ERP/FPL/FMLN)
|
1979
|
Guatemala, Nicaragua
|
Nicaragua (vs. FSLN/Contras)
|
1978
|
Guatemala
|
Panama (vs. forces of Moisés Giroldi)
|
1989
|
El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua
|
Colombia (vs. FARC, etc.)
|
1964
|
Argentina, Venezuela, Cuba
|
Venezuela (vs. navy military faction)
|
1962
|
Cuba
|
Venezuela (vs. Bandera Roja)
|
1982
|
Argentina, Colombia, Peru
|
Venezuela (vs. forces of Hugo Chavez)
|
1992
|
Colombia, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname
|
Suriname (vs. SLA/Jungle Commando)
|
1986
|
Colombia, Peru, Venezuela
|
Peru (vs. ELN/MIR)
|
1965
|
Argentina, Colombia, Venezuela, Cuba
|
Peru (vs. Sendero Luminoso, etc.)
|
1982
|
Argentina, Colombia, Venezuela
|
Peru (vs. Sendero Luminoso)
|
2007
|
Colombia
|
Bolivia (vs. MNR)
|
1952
|
Paraguay
|
Bolivia (vs. ELN)
|
1967
|
Argentina, Colombia, Peru, Venezuela
|
Paraguay (vs. Febreristas, Liberals and Communists)
|
1947
|
Bolivia
|
Paraguay (vs. forces of General Alfredo Stroessner)
|
1954
|
Bolivia, Cuba
|
Potential State B
(potential receiver)
|
Onset Year of State B’s Substate Conflict
|
Potential State A(s)
(potential senders)
|
Paraguay (vs. forces of General Rodriguez)
|
1989
|
Colombia, Peru, Suriname
|
Chile (vs. forces of Augusto Pinochet)
|
1973
|
Colombia, Uruguay
|
Argentina (vs. forces of Eduardo A. Lonardi Doucet)
|
1955
|
Bolivia, Paraguay, Cuba
|
Argentina (vs. Colorados)
|
1963
|
Venezuela, Cuba
|
Argentina (vs. ERP/Monteneros)
|
1974
|
Chile, Colombia, Uruguay
|
Uruguay (vs. MLN/Tupamaros)
|
1972
|
Bolivia, Colombia
|
Spain (vs. ETA)
|
1980
|
United Kingdom
|
Spain (vs. ETA)
|
1987
|
United Kingdom
|
Macedonia (vs. UCK)
|
2001
|
Russia, Serbia
|
Croatia (vs. Serbian Republic of Krajina)
|
1992
|
Bosnia, Romania, Russia, Serbia
|
Serbia (vs. Slovenia/Croatia)
|
1991
|
Romania, Russia
|
Serbia (vs. UCK)
|
1998
|
Bosnia, Croatia, Russia
|
Bosnia-Herzegovina (vs. Serbian Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina)
|
1992
|
Romania, Russia, Serbia
|
Bosnia-Herzegovina (vs. Autonomous Province of Western Bosnia)
|
1993
|
Croatia, Romania, Russia, Serbia
|
Moldova (vs. Dniestr Republic)
|
1992
|
Russia, Romania
|
Soviet Union (vs. Forest Brothers/LNPA/BDPS/UPA)
|
1946
|
China
|
Russia (vs. parliamentary forces)
|
1993
|
Azerbaijan, Georgia
|
Russia (vs. Chechen Republic of Ichkeria)
|
1994
|
Azerbaijan, Georgia
|
Russia (vs. Wahhabi movement of the Buinaksk district)
|
1999
|
Azerbaijan
|
Georgia (vs. anti-government alliance)
|
1991
|
Soviet Union
|
Georgia (vs. Abkhazia)
|
1992
|
Azerbaijan, Russia
|
Georgia (vs. South Ossetia)
|
2004
|
Russia
|
Potential State B
(potential receiver)
|
Onset Year of State B’s Substate Conflict
|
Potential State A(s)
(potential senders)
|
Azerbaijan (vs. forces of Suret Husseinov)
|
1993
|
Georgia
|
Guinea-Bissau (vs. Military Junta for the Consolidation of Democracy, Peace and Justice)
|
1998
|
Liberia, Mali, Niger, Senegal, Sierra Leone
|
Gambia (vs. NRC)
|
1981
|
Liberia, Mauritania
|
Mali (vs. MPA/FIAA)
|
1990
|
Burkina Faso, Liberia, Senegal, Togo, Morocco, Chad
|
Mali (vs. ATNMC)
|
2007
|
Côte D’Ivoire, Liberia, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Algeria, Chad
|
Senegal (vs. MFDC)
|
1990
|
Burkina Faso, Liberia, Mali, Togo
|
Mauritania (vs. POLISARIO)
|
1975
|
Nigeria, Chad, Morocco
|
Niger (vs. FLAA)
|
1991
|
Burkina Faso, Liberia, Mali, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo, Morocco, Algeria, Chad
|
Niger (vs. FDR)
|
1996
|
Liberia, Mali, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo, Algeria, Egypt, Chad
|
Niger (vs. MNJ)
|
2007
|
Côte D’Ivoire, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Algeria, Chad
|
Côte D’Ivoire (vs. MJP, etc.)
|
2002
|
Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Niger, Senegal, Sierra Leone
|
Guinea (vs. RFDG)
|
2000
|
Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Niger, Senegal, Sierra Leone
|
Burkina Faso (vs. Popular Front)
|
1987
|
Cameroon, Ghana, Togo
|
Liberia (vs. forces of Samuel Doe)
|
1980
|
Mauritania
|
Liberia (vs. NPFL, etc.)
|
1989
|
Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Togo
|
Sierra Leone (vs. RUF, etc.)
|
1991
|
Burkina Faso, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Senegal, Togo
|
Potential State B
(potential receiver)
|
Onset Year of State B’s Substate Conflict
|
Potential State A(s)
(potential senders)
|
Ghana (vs. NLC)
|
1966
|
Cameroon, Gabon, Nigeria
|
Ghana (vs. forces of Jerry John Rawlings)
|
1981
|
Gambia, Liberia, Mauritania
|
Togo (vs. MTD)
|
1986
|
Cameroon, Gambia, Ghana
|
Cameroon (vs. forces of Ibrahim Saleh)
|
1984
|
Gambia, Ghana, Liberia
|
Nigeria (vs. forces of Patrick Nzeogwu)
|
1966
|
Cameroon, Gabon, Ghana
|
Nigeria (vs. Republic of Biafra)
|
1967
|
Gabon, Ghana
|
Nigeria (vs. Ahlul Sunnah Jamaa/NDPVF)
|
2004
|
Côte D’Ivoire, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Senegal, Sierra Leone
|
Gabon (vs. forces loyal to Léon M’Ba)
|
1964
|
Cameroon
|
Central African Republic (vs. forces of Cyriac Souke)
|
1996
|
Burundi, Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda
|
Chad (vs. FROLINAT, etc.)
|
1966
|
Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Sudan
|
Republic of the Congo (vs. Cobras, Ninjas, etc.)
|
1993
|
Burundi, Chad, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda, Angola
|
Democratic Republic of the Congo (vs. CNL, etc.)
|
1964
|
Ethiopia, Sudan
|
Democratic Republic of the Congo (vs. FLNC)
|
1977
|
Chad, Ethiopia, Sudan, Uganda, Angola
|
Democratic Republic of the Congo (vs. AFDL, etc.)
|
1996
|
Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda, Angola
|
Potential State B
(potential receiver)
|
Onset Year of State B’s Substate Conflict
|
Potential State A(s)
(potential senders)
|
Democratic Republic of the Congo (vs. BDK)
|
2007
|
Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda, Angola
|
Uganda (vs. forces of Idi Amin, etc.)
|
1971
|
Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Sudan
|
Kenya (vs. forces of Hezekiah Ochuka)
|
1982
|
Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda
|
Burundi (vs. forces loyal to Gervais Nyangoma)
|
1965
|
Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Sudan
|
Burundi (vs. Palipehutu, etc.)
|
1991
|
Chad, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda
|
Rwanda (vs. FPR/FDLR)
|
1990
|
Chad, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda
|
Somalia (vs. forces of Abdulaahi Yusuf, etc.)
|
1978
|
Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Sudan, Uganda
|
Djibouti (vs. FRUD)
|
1991
|
Burundi, Chad, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda
|
Ethiopia (vs. forces of Mengistu Neway)
|
1960
|
Democratic Republic of the Congo
|
Ethiopia (vs. ELF)
|
1964
|
Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan
|
Ethiopia (vs. ALF)
|
1975
|
Chad, Sudan, Uganda
|
Ethiopia (vs. EPRP/TPLF/WSLF)
|
1976
|
Chad, Sudan, Uganda
|
Ethiopia (vs. OLF)
|
1977
|
Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan, Uganda
|
Ethiopia (vs. ONLF)
|
1994
|
Burundi, Chad, Djibouti, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda
|
Potential State B
(potential receiver)
|
Onset Year of State B’s Substate Conflict
|
Potential State A(s)
(potential senders)
|
Ethiopia (vs. al-Itahad al-Islami)
|
1995
|
Burundi, Chad, Djibouti, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda
|
Ethiopia (vs. ARDUF)
|
1996
|
Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda
|
Eritrea (vs. EIJM-AS)
|
1997
|
Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda
|
Angola (vs. FNLA/UNITA)
|
1975
|
Madagascar, South Africa, Zimbabwe
|
Angola (vs. FLEC-FAC/FLEC-R)
|
1991
|
Comoros, Mozambique, South Africa
|
Mozambique (vs. RENAMO)
|
1977
|
Angola, South Africa, Zimbabwe
|
South Africa (vs. ANC)
|
1981
|
Angola, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
|
Lesotho (vs. military faction)
|
1998
|
Angola, Comoros
|
Madagascar (vs. Monima)
|
1971
|
South Africa
|
Comoros (vs. presidential guard)
|
1989
|
Angola, Mozambique, South Africa
|
Comoros (vs. MPA/Republic of Anjouan)
|
1997
|
Angola, Mozambique
|
Morocco (vs. forces of Mohamed Madbouh)
|
1971
|
Chad
|
Morocco (vs. POLISARIO)
|
1975
|
Chad, Mauritania
|
Algeria (vs. Takfir wa’l Hijra, etc.)
|
1991
|
Morocco, Mali, Niger, Chad
|
Tunisia (vs. Résistance Armée Tunisienne)
|
1980
|
Morocco, Chad, Mauritania
| |
|
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